There’s not a stack on the roster below, but it’s a GPP team nonetheless. It’s headlined by a pair of aces with sky-high ceilings, and the two aces are backed by ample thump. With the exception of this team’s catcher, the other hitters should slot in the top four spots in their respective lineups. There are only two pieces from Coors Field, and the ownership rates should be quite low for the vast majority of the hitters.
Pitcher
Chris Archer (TB): $10,600 vs. White Sox
There’s a lot to like about Archer tonight, and it starts with him being the cheapest of the four 5-figure starting pitchers tonight. He offers a massive discount from Max Scherzer ($13,000), a notable one from Robbie Ray and a small one from Jacob deGrom. Of course, he’s not cheap, but he commands a sizable salary commitment for good reason. As many expected, Archer has bounced back from an underwhelming 2016 campaign. This year, he owns a 3.74 ERA (2.73 FIP, 3.35 xFIP, and 3.42 SIERA, per FanGraphs, as well as a 1.83 DRA, according to Baseball Prospectus), 1.18 WHIP, 8.2% BB%, 29.0% K%, and 12.9% SwStr%. Over the last 30 days, Archer’s ERA is up a pinch at 3.97 in five starts spanning 34.0 innings, but his 2.11 FIP, 2.52 xFIP, and 2.83 SIERA are better than his overall marks. In that time frame, he’s kicked his strikeout rate up to 33.3% with a filthy 14.3% SwStr%. In other words, the underlying numbers are even better than his full-season marks despite his ERA being up a bit. The matchup is good for him tonight. The White Sox rank tied for 27th in wRC+ (81) against right-handed pitchers this year while striking out in 23.2% of their plate appearances against them. The game is in Tampa Bay, which is good news for two reasons. The first is that Tampa Bay’s offense is much better at home than on the road. The second is that Archer is lights out in his home digs. Since he turned into the strikeout machine we now know in 2015, he owns a 2.85 ERA (2.50 FIP and 2.78 xFIP), 1.09 WHIP, 7.2% BB%, and 31.9% K% in 246.0 innings pitched at Tropicana Field. The Rays are -157 favorites in a game with an over/under total of only 7.5 runs, according to Pinnacle, which is all the more reason to love locking Archer in as your SP1 tonight.
James Paxton (SEA): $8,800 vs. Twins
There was speculation Paxton wouldn’t be on a strict pitch count in his last start (his first off of the 10-day DL), and then he was yanked after only 74 pitches. The good news is he made those pitches count twirling 5.1 innings of scoreless ball allowing only three hits with zero walks and six strikeouts, but it also means he might not be allowed to throw his normal complement of 100 or more pitches in this turn if the Mariners are slowly working his pitch count up. I think it’s best to set a soft expectation of approximately 90 pitches in this one, just to be on the cautious side, but he’s grossly under priced even with that in mind. The southpaw kicked up his velocity last year, and this year he’s turning his amazing heater and a lethal full arsenal of pitches into ace results. In seven starts totaling 43.0 innings, he has a 1.26 ERA (1.44 FIP, 2.98 xFIP, 3.09 SIERA, and 1.67 DRA), 0.93 WHIP, 6.5% BB%, 30.2% K%, and 14.3% SwStr%. He’s been flat out dominant to the point even his advanced metrics look like something a flame-throwing, elite reliever would post. The burgeoning ace’s matchup is good tonight as well. The Twins rank 22nd in wRC+ (84) against lefties this year, and the Mariners are -202 favorites in a game with an over/under total of eight runs at home tonight. At under $9,000, there’s plenty of room for Paxton’s ROI to be massive.
Honorable Mentions
- Robbie Ray (ARI): $11,900 vs. Padres
- Jacob deGrom (NYM): $10,900 @ Rangers
- Jake Arrieta (CHC): $9,000 *Weather specific play (i.e. if the wind is blowing in and the over/under total is low)
Catcher
Cameron Rupp (PHI): $2,700 @ Braves
There are three cheap catchers who stand out from the pack, and Rupp’s smallest salary of the bunch makes him a perfect fit for this team. At $2,700, you’re getting a lot of bang for your buck. Since 2014, he owns a .372 OBP, .258 ISO, and 151 wRC+ against southpaws. He’s raking against them this year, too, And while we’re not even halfway through the year, SunTrust Park is playing favorable for hitters, according to the park factors at ESPN.
Honorable Mentions
- Alex Avila (DET): $3,400 vs. Angels
- Tony Wolters (COL): $3,100 vs. Indians
First Base
Danny Valencia (SEA): $3,700 vs. Twins
The last time the Mariners faced a lefty, Valencia slotted second in their lineup. The lineup bump against southpaws is a cherry on top, though, not the primary reason for using him tonight. The right-handed hitting first baseman has a .378 OBP, .166 ISO, and 136 wRC+ against lefties since 2014. As an added bonus, he’s raking of late with a .348 OBP, .141 ISO, and 149 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Honorable Mentions
- Miguel Cabrera (DET): $4,400 vs. Angels
- Matt Carpenter (STL): $3,700 @ Reds
- Tommy Joseph (PHI): $3,200 @ Braves
Second Base
Dee Gordon (MIA): $3,900 @ Cubs
Gordon’s upside is huge against Jake Arrieta tonight. The right-handed hurler is awful controlling the running game. Since 2015, Arrieta’s allowed the fourth most stolen bases (57 in 75 starts), and he’s surrendered seven stolen bases in 11 starts this year. Arrieta is also struggling mightily with left-handed batters allowing a .364 OBP, .571 SLG, and .392 wOBA this season. The slugging doesn’t matter all that much to Gordon, but the .364 OBP makes Gordon a decent bet to get on base and showcase his top-end speed.
Honorable Mentions
- Jason Kipnis (CLE): $4,600 @ Rockies
- Jed Lowrie (OAK): $3,700 vs. Blue Jays
Third Base
Evan Longoria (TB): $3,900 vs. White Sox
Jose Quintana hasn’t been his regular, tough as nails self this year, and right-handed batters have totaled a .350 OBP, .490 SLG, and .360 wOBA against him. Quintana’s struggles pair nicely with Longo’s work against lefties, namely his work against lefties at home. Since 2014, he has a .368 OBP, .185 ISO, and 127 wRC+ against southpaws at Tropicana Field. Those numbers are yanked down by his 71 plate appearances at home against lefties last year, but take a gander at his career marks against lefties at home. Impressive, right? Enjoy the salary discount he offers you from the other top options at the hot corner featured in the Honorable Mentions below.
Honorable Mentions
- Jake Lamb (ARI): $5,100 vs. Padres
- Josh Donaldson (TOR): $4,700 @ Athletics
- Kris Bryant (CHC): $4,600 vs. Marlins
Shortstop
Corey Seager (LAD): $3,400 vs. Nationals
Here’s our top contrarian play. Mad Max isn’t a pitcher I’d suggest going out of the way to use hitters against, but Seager’s a rare talent, and Max isn’t without some faults. First of all, Scherzer has some home run issues at times, and he’s allowed 10 in 11 starts this year. He’s not completely dominating lefties this year, either. Scherzer has allowed a .307 wOBA to them in 2017. Spinning back to Seager, he has a .396 OBP, .210 ISO, and 152 wRC+ against righties since reaching The Show. Furthermore, with a 17.7% K% against righties in that time frame, he’s not an all-or-nothing hitter Scherzer’s swing-and-miss stuff can easily pick apart.
Honorable Mention
- Brandon Crawford (SF): $4,200 @ Brewers
- Javier Baez (CHC): $4,100 vs. Marlins
Outfield
Nelson Cruz (SEA): $4,900 vs. Twins
By now, you should know the drill. When Nelly faces a lefty, he needs to immediately be in consideration. Since 2014, he has a .401 OBP, .306 ISO, and 176 wRC+ against southpaws. Those marks rank eighth, tied for second, and first among all qualified hitters, respectively. Cruz’s unreal power against lefties should play well against opposing starter Hector Santiago‘s batted-ball profile. Santiago has allowed a 52.1% FB% and 34.3% Hard% to right-handed batters this year, and hard contact in the air for Cruz often has a way of finding the seats.
Jose Bautista (TOR): $4,000 @ Athletics
Bautista couldn’t get out of his way to start the year, but over the last 30 days, he has a .383 OBP, .293 ISO, and 157 wRC+. He looks like good ole’ Joey Bats. He’s excellent in same-handed matchups, and since 2014, he has a .380 OBP, .249 ISO, and 143 wRC+ against righties. The O. Co Coliseum traditionally suppresses homers with a park factor of 81 for homers for right-handed batters, per StatCorner’s 3-year averages, but it might be worth noting homers are amplified there thus far this year, per ESPN’s park factors (which aren’t split by handedness, unfortunately). Jesse Hahn has been tough on right-handed batters this year and throughout his career, but the fact it’s his first start off the disabled list helps embolden me to run a hot right-handed hitter at him in the form of Joey Bats.
Carlos Gonzalez (COL): $3,800 vs. Indians
It’s been a woefully bad year for CarGo so far, but the Rockies have continued to use him as their cleanup hitter against righties. I’m not ready to ignore a track record of pummeling right-handed pitchers at Coors Field less than halfway through this campaign. Enjoy the discounted salary and superb hitting conditions for Gonzalez and confidently slot him into your rosters.
Honorable Mentions
- Eric Thames (MIL): $4,900 vs. Giants
- Michael Brantley (CLE): $4,900 @ Rockies
- Aaron Hicks (NYY): $4,700 vs. Red Sox
- Christian Yelich (MIA): $4,000 @ Cubs
- Guillermo Heredia (SEA): $3,200 vs. Twins
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