Hitting on a high upside player often leads to championships. Sure, the studs will carry your team more often than not, but it’s that one extra player that can put you over the hump in any given week. Last season, owners who swooped up Jordan Howard were able to secure a top 10 running back for the cost of nothing. There were kickers drafted ahead of him. Think about that for a second.
Of course, there are no guarantees any of us will win the running back lottery when drafting this season, but we wanted to at least improve your chances. We reached out to our featured pundits below to name their top upside running backs that can be had in the later rounds.
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Q1. What RB with an ECR outside the top 25 has the best shot of putting up RB1 numbers?
Danny Woodhead (BAL): Consensus RB: #33
“I’m going to go with Danny Woodhead, since he’s done it before. Obviously, there’s risk here — he’s coming off two major injuries in three seasons, but that’s the reason he’s available relatively cheaply compared to his ceiling. In 2015, Woodhead’s last healthy season, he finished as the #3 overall RB in PPR. He enters a Ravens offense that threw the ball a whopping 678 times in 2016 compared to only 589 attempts per season in Woodhead’s four seasons in San Diego. And even without a stud pass-catcher like Woodhead in the backfield last year, Joe Flacco targeted a RB or FB on 21.9% of his attempts last year, the 7th-highest rate in the league. In addition, Baltimore lost over 300 targets from 2016. There are questions about Woodhead’s health and age, but there’s no denying his massive upside.”
– Joseph Dolan (Fantasy Guru)
“Danny Woodhead has already proven he can be an RB1 in PPR leagues having done it both of the last times he wasn’t injured. Now he goes to a team that leads the league in passing over the previous two seasons. The praises coming out of camp have already started to come and he looks locked and loaded as the pass catching back for Joe Flacco.”
– Jason Moore (The Fantasy Footballers)
Doug Martin (TB): Consensus RB: #32
“I don’t think it’s a stretch for Doug Martin to put up RB1 numbers this season. I understand he’s going to miss three games due to his suspension, but if you look at his 2014 stat line, it’s easy to see his potential. In 2014. Martin had 1,402 rushing yards and 6 TDs on 288 carries. He averaged 18 attempts a game that year. If Martin returns to a similar workload and can average 18 carries a game at his 4.2 YPC career average, he’ll fall just shy of 1,000 yards for the season (982). There’s a good chance Martin isn’t going to lead the league in rushings yards in 2017, but on a game by game basis, he has a good chance to be a solid RB1, and someone you’ll definitely be thankful you drafted.”
– Mike Rigz (Gridiron Experts)
“Even though he is beginning the year with a three game suspension, Doug Martin may still provide RB1 value for the remainder of the year while he is playing. Reports indicate he is running with power, shows good burst, and is finishing his runs well. If he remains healthy, he could provide game winning production for patient owners.”
– Ken Moody (Dynasty League Football)
Paul Perkins (NYG): Consensus RB: #30
“I am going with Paul Perkins. Rashad Jennings is no longer in town and he really has no competition in camp. Rookie Wayne Gallman is the only true backup on the team and Shane Vereen tore his triceps twice last season. In the last 3 games of 2016, Perkins averaged over 4.8 yards per carry. He has 3-down ability and the Giants offense looks much improved over last year. Their schedule looks very favorable as well for RBs.”
– Ken Zalis (Pressbox)
Bilal Powell (NYJ): Consensus RB: #27
“Did you know Bilal Powell had the fourth-most receptions among running backs with 58 last season? That may not mean much in standard scoring formats, but even there he was 23rd in scoring despite his role. The offense isn’t great, but Powell could nab 250 touches next season if he stays healthy. He’s talented enough to convert that to top-12 fantasy status.”
– Alessandro Miglio (Footballguys)
Q2. Who is one backup RB outside the top 50 with the best chance of jumping into a starting role this year?
Jacquizz Rodgers (TB): Consensus RB: #56
“Though it’s a crowded backfield in Tampa, don’t forget that Jacquizz Rodgers was the Buccaneers’ best back last season. Rodgers’ 129 carries and 560 rushing yards were both career-highs (by far). What’s most interesting, however, is Rodgers was Tampa’s most efficient back in 2016. He gained five or more yards on 38% of his rush attempts in 2016 alone, while Doug Martin gained 5-plus yards on just 30% of his carries and Charles Sims lagged way behind (25%) both running backs. With Martin suspended the first three games of the season, Rodgers could well open the season as the starter, especially if rookie Jeremy McNichols isn’t yet ready.”
– Joseph Dolan (Fantasy Guru)
“Jacquizz Rodgers has never been a fantasy favorite, but there are a few reasons he could actually overtake the Doug Martin as the primary running back. First, we know that Jacquizz gets to start the season in that role while Martin is suspended. Last year he outperformed Martin in per game basis in both carries and efficiency as a starter. He’s worth a draft pick in the 10th round because unlike other high upside handcuffs, you’ll get value from Rogers to start the season and can make waiver moves in Week 4 assuming he loses the job. ”
– Jason Moore (The Fantasy Footballers)
Thomas Rawls (SEA): Consensus RB: #51
“There are very few running backs to choose from outside the top 50 that I think can steal a job in July, maybe once training camp starts that’ll change. However, if I had to pick one, I’d pick Thomas Rawls (RB 51 in ECR, ADP 9.08). As I have mentioned on our podcast a few times, I’m not 100% sold on Eddie Lacy. It’s an open competition, and Rawls has just as good of a chance to win the job as the former Packer. Remember, Rawls showed flashes but then got hurt; Lacy lost his job from weight gain and lack of ability. The spotlight is on Lacy, and it’s his job to loose. But as a pure value pick, I like Rawls late.”
– Mike Rigz (Gridiron Experts)
“Does Thomas Rawls count? The former starter has Eddie Lacy barring his way, but he flashed some real talent as a potential starter. It’ll be easy to grab Rawls in the teen rounds in most formats, and he doesn’t even need to be a Lacy handcuff. If I had to pick one other guy, it would be Joe Williams, who keeps getting good press in San Francisco as reportedly beleaguered Carlos Hyde’s backup.”
– Alessandro Miglio (Footballguys)
Joe Williams (SF): Consensus RB: #53
“Well if you believe where there is smoke, there is fire, you have to like Joe Williams in San Fran. He may wind up as the day one starter should Carlos Hyde get cut because he does not fit the new offense. As far as what round you target him, I would start thinking about it around the 9th round, especially if the news on Hyde continues to run downhill. That may even be too late once we get into the dog days of August. Certainly a situation to watch closely.”
– Ken Zalis (Pressbox)
Marlon Mack (IND): Consensus RB: #58
“Mack is an explosive athlete who is primed to take over a starting role behind the aging all-pro Frank Gore. While the fantasy community has been incorrectly predicting the demise of Gore for several seasons, Gore is 34 years old. Robert Turbin is also in the mix, but he is a much less dynamic back than the record-setting rookie out of South Florida. Despite the pass-oriented offense and questionable O-Line in Indy, Mack brings proven play-making ability to a team in need of a difference maker at the running back position. He will take over the lead RB role in Indy and will never look back.”
– Ken Moody (Dynasty League Football)
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Thank you to the experts for naming their high upside running backs. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice and check out our latest podcast below.
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