You may have noticed that this column took a break with the rest of baseball for the All-Star festivities, but now we’re back to get you ready to choose your two-start pitchers for the coming week! Remember that probable pitchers are never set in stone, so it’s always worth double-checking your lineup just prior to the weekly deadline. And if you have any specific questions about your fantasy teams, just ask me on Twitter.
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Too Big To Fail
1) Jacob DeGrom (7/24 @SD, 7/29 @SEA)
DeGrom is currently fourth in points in CBS leagues, and he’s been cruising of late, with a 2.65 ERA and 0.95 WHIP since June 1. The trip to Petco Park is obviously appealing, and the Mariners are just middle-of-the-pack in OPS against right-handers, so there’s no need to fear that matchup, either.
2) Zack Greinke (7/24 vs. ATL, 7/29 @STL)
Greinke is right behind DeGrom in CBS leagues, with the fifth most points. Greinke got roughed up a bit by the Reds in his last start, but he is still sporting a 2.57 ERA and 1.12 WHIP since the beginning of June. Neither matchup is a cakewalk, but neither is particularly worrisome, either.
3) Carlos Carrasco (7/25 vs. LAA, 7/30 @CHW)
Carrasco is the third two-start pitcher this week who sits in the top-10 in points in CBS leagues. He had a couple rough starts in June but looks to have righted the ship in July. Plus, his matchups this week are mouth-watering — both the Angels and White Sox rank in the bottom six in OPS against right-handed pitchers.
The Next Best Thing
4) Sonny Gray (7/25 @TOR, 7/30 vs. MIN)
Gray certainly seems like a guy who’s comfortable auditioning for a trade. He’s allowed just six runs over his last 33⅓ innings, spanning five starts. His matchups are both fairly attractive, so his owners shouldn’t hesitate to roll him out there while he’s pitching this well.
5) Gerrit Cole (7/24 @SF, 7/30 @SD)
Cole has had a somewhat disappointing season so far. His 4.18 ERA is not what owners were hoping for, even though his numbers look an awful lot like the ones he had last year. His biggest problem this year has been the blow-up start. He’s given up seven earned runs three times. One of those seven-run blow-ups was on June 30 against the Giants, but that was the only poor start he’s had in his last seven, and road starts against the Giants and Padres are about as favorable as matchups get.
6) James Paxton (7/24 vs. BOS, 7/30 vs. NYM)
Paxton is having a Jekyll and Hyde season. He looked like a legitimate ace in April and May before becoming completely unusable in June. Now he’s looking great again. We can probably chalk up Paxton’s rough patch to working out the kinks after returning from a forearm strain on May 31. The Red Sox and Mets are both tough on left-handers, but Paxton has earned some trust at this point.
7) Lance Lynn (7/25 vs. COL, 7/30 vs. ARI)
Lynn is quietly having an excellent fantasy season. He’s actually amassed more fantasy points than Cole and Paxton, and almost as many as Yu Darvish and Carlos Martinez. Lynn’s strikeout rate is down a bit and his .225 BABIP allowed is unsustainable, so it’s fair to ask how long the good times will continue. But then again he’s been unlucky with home runs allowed, and his 3.30 ERA is actually higher than he had in 2015 or 2016. Facing Colorado and Arizona is never fun, but the good news for Lynn is that both starts are at home.
8) Dan Straily (7/25 @TEX, 7/30 vs. CIN)
Straily is another pitcher who has been surprisingly effective this season. He’s right behind Cole in fantasy points in CBS leagues. Straily has managed to boost his strikeout rate this year while walking fewer batters, and his performance to date looks fairly sustainable. A matchup against Cincinnati isn’t easy, but the Rangers are less scary than they might seem, ranking just 17th in OPS against right-handers. They are a lot more dangerous at home, though.
9) Brad Peacock (7/24 @PHI, 7/30 @DET)
Peacock has an impressive 2.92 ERA and 12.2 K/9 rate since he joined the Astros rotation on May 28, and he’s been even better of late, with a 1.83 ERA over his last six starts. His 4.8 BB/9 rate as a starter is an issue, particularly in leagues that count WHIP or quality starts. But Peacock is virtually guaranteed excellent run support and gets two relatively juicy matchups this week (particularly the Phillies).
Decent Options
10) Justin Verlander (7/24 vs. KC, 7/30 vs. HOU)
Verlander, who I dubbed the Least Valuable Player of the first half, looks like he may finally be turning his season around. Over his last three starts, he has a 2.37 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 9.0 K/9 rate, although he’s still walking too many guys. Baby steps. As I mentioned in awarding Verlander his “award,” his velocity is actually up this year, so all hope is not lost. The Kansas City matchup is enticing, but the Houston matchup is scary.
11) Jacob Faria (7/25 vs. BAL, 7/30 @NYY)
Faria is coming off his worst start of the season, but it was hardly disastrous (4 ER and 4 walks in 5 innings pitched at Oakland). In five of his eight starts to begin his career, Faria has allowed just a single earned run. It’s always tough to fully trust rookie pitchers, but how many veteran pitchers can you really trust at this point? He has been a bit fortunate with avoiding home runs and stranding runners, and his matchups are a little worrisome, but Faria has been too good to sit unless you have a wealth of options.
12) Jhoulys Chacin (7/25 vs. NYM, 7/30 vs. PIT)
Chacin’s season-long numbers are nothing special, but that’s mostly due to a few truly awful starts. Since May 28, he has a 2.97 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. While his 7.58 K/9 rate on the year is far from elite, it’s the best mark he’s had since his rookie season in 2010. Most importantly, he has a 1.94 ERA at Petco Park and gets two home starts this week.
13) Luis Castillo (7/25 @NYY, 7/30 @MIA)
Castillo is another rookie pitcher who is quickly proving his worth. He hasn’t had an easy matchup yet (@WAS, MIL, @COL, ARI, WAS, ARI), but he’s managed to not only hold his own, but strike out over 11 batters per nine innings. The Yankees will be yet another tough matchup, but the Marlins should prove more manageable. Bottom line, Castillo was dominant enough in Triple-A (2.58 ERA) that he makes for a tempting streamer with the potential for season-long value.
14) Mike Clevinger (7/24 vs. CIN, 7/29 @CWS)
Clevinger is yet another young arm pitching terrific of lat. He has a 1.36 ERA,1.03 WHIP, and 9.5 K/9 over six starts since June 17. His 4.5 walks per nine innings suggest trouble could be around the corner once he stops stranding over 83 percent of baserunners, but the strikeouts and win potential give him a decent floor. He’d be tough to sit with a nice matchup against the White Sox on the schedule.
15) R.A. Dickey (7/24 @ARI, 7/30 @PHI)
Dickey has had the knuckleball dancing of late, just as he promised — he has a 1.80 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over his last six starts. Pitchers don’t generally rediscover their past glory at age 42, but if anybody could do it, it would be a knuckleballer. It’s certainly possible that the trip to Chase Field goes badly, but it’s probably worth the risk in most situations given Dickey’s recent form and the Phillies matchup that follows.
16) Taijuan Walker (7/25 vs. ATL, 7/30 @STL)
Walker has had a very solid season so far, but his rising walk rate and good fortune on avoiding home runs are reasons for pause. Still, the matchups aren’t bad, so you’re probably starting him if you own him.
17) Hyun-Jin Ryu (7/24 vs. MIN, 7/30 vs. SF)
Anyone getting two home starts for the Dodgers is at least worth considering in most leagues, and that includes Ryu. His 8.55 K/9 rate is higher than it was before he had shoulder surgery, and he should give up fewer home runs going forward, which could help get his ERA under 4. The Twins and Giants are both below-average offenses against left-handers, so Ryu may be the best under-the-radar two-start option out there this week.
If You’re Desperate
18) Aaron Sanchez (7/24 vs. OAK, 7/29 vs. LAA)
Sanchez’s ongoing blister problems resurfaced in his last start, so he’s no guarantee to make two starts this week. But even if he does, he makes for a dicey option. Sanchez has allowed eight runs in 11⅔ innings since returning from the DL, and even more concerning is the 11 walks and six strikeouts he has over that stretch. The matchups are fairly appealing, but Sanchez doesn’t look right even if he does avoid another DL stint.
19) John Lackey (7/24 vs. CHW, 7/29 @MIL)
We’re now in late July, and Lackey has an ERA over five. An optimist might point out that he was very good in 2015 and 2016, and that he has quality starts in four of his last five appearances. But he’s not striking anyone out over that stretch, so it may just be a result of good BABIP fortune. Oh, and he gave up eight runs in the one non-quality start.
20) Mike Leake (7/24 vs. COL, 7/29 vs. ARI)
On May 24, Leake had a 1.91 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Since then, he has a 5.04 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. The real Leake is obviously somewhere in between, but he doesn’t strike enough batters out to be worth using unless he’s pitching really well. It’s nice that the Colorado and Arizona matchups are at home, but he’s still not an advisable start…unless you’re desperate.
21) Jason Hammel (7/24 @DET, 7/30 @BOS)
Hammel hasn’t been bad lately. He has a 3.49 ERA and 1.24 WHIP since June 8. The matchups aren’t bad, either, but the strikeouts and win potential just aren’t there. Hopefully you can do better.
22) Jordan Montgomery (7/25 vs. CIN, 7/30 vs. TB)
Montgomery has fallen on tough times of late with a 4.97 ERA since June 15. There isn’t much in his peripherals to suggest better times are ahead, but at least he’ll always have a shot at a win with the Yankees’ offense supporting him.
23) Seth Lugo (7/25 @SD, 7/30 @SEA)
Lugo has been serviceable in limited action this year (4.05 ERA, 1.35 WHIP). I wouldn’t feel great about starting him against the Mariners, but the road start at San Diego might be enough of a draw if you’re digging deep for a two-start option.
Just Say No
23) Carlos Rodon (7/25 @CHC, 7/30 vs. CLE)
24) Blake Snell (7/24 vs. BAL, 7/29 @NYY)
25) Jharel Cotton (7/24 @TOR, 7/29 vs. MIN)
26) Francisco Liriano (7/25 vs. OAK, 7/30 vs. LAA)
27) Mike Montgomery (7/25 vs. CHW, 7/30 @MIL)
28) Jesse Chavez (7/25 @CLE, 7/30 @TOR)
29) Zach Davies (7/25 @WAS, 7/30 vs. CHC)
30) Antonio Senzatela (7/24 @STL, 7/30 @WAS)
31) Tim Adleman (7/24 @CLE, 7/29 @MIA)
32) Matt Cain (7/24 vs. PIT, 7/30 @LAD)
33) Miguel Gonzalez (7/24 @CHC, 7/29 vs. CLE)
34) Kevin Gausman (7/24 @TB, 7/30 @TEX)
35) Adam Conley (7/24 @TEX, 7/29 vs. CIN)
36) Martin Perez (7/24 vs. MIA, 7/30 vs. BAL)
37) Clayton Richard (7/24 vs. NYM, 7/30 vs. PIT)
38) Bartolo Colon (7/24 @LAD, 7/30 @OAK)
Rodon may figure things out eventually, maybe even this year. But he’s given up 11 earned runs in his last nine innings and faces two teams that mash lefties. Resist the urge to roll the dice on him this week…Cotton is an interesting name to file away, assuming he does return to the rotation this week. But he was bad enough earlier this year that you have to take a wait-and-see approach here…The wheels have really come off for Liriano this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if he turns it around at some point, but he’s strictly hands-off for now…It looks like the end is near for the 44-year old Colon, but it’s been a heck of a run for “Big Sexy.”
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
