As drafts wind down, players who are consistent and valuable producers each week are long gone, and you’re left to select from two player pools. First, you can draft players who will have a reasonable floor, but a limited ceiling. Some great examples of this in 2016 were Cole Beasley and Chris Thompson.
Over the course of the season, Cole Beasley had 13 weeks where he scored between 7.9 and 18 PPR fantasy points, but his highest scoring output of the season was 23.8 fantasy points. He wasn’t going to lose you matchups, but he wouldn’t vault you to a surprise win either. Thompson’s highest output of the year was 18.3 fantasy points, but he put up 10 weeks of scores between eight and 12 fantasy points. These type of players are regularly available on the waiver wire, and therefore you shouldn’t use late round draft picks on them.
The second type of player available in later rounds is the boom or bust player. Examples of this in 2016 would be Theo Riddick and Mike Wallace. When Riddick was on the field, he put up great numbers for his fantasy owners, but he was often on the bench or in your IR slot. He still helped your team get wins when he was in your lineup.
Wallace, on the other hand, was healthy the whole season but faded at the end of the season. Wallace scored 19 or more fantasy points in four predictable matchups. If you started him in those weeks, he was very valuable in helping you to a win.
It is these type of players that we want to target in late rounds to complement our early round stars. I’ve analyzed current ADP numbers, and the following three wide receivers are players I expect to fulfill this role in 2017.
View real time recommendations for each pick with our Draft Assistant 
Jordan Matthews (PHI) – Current ADP: 114 (WR48)
Admittedly, Jordan Matthews underachieved in 2016. He was being drafted as the 31st wide receiver and finished the year 44th on the scoring leader list. After having a stellar rookie season and an even better sophomore campaign, Matthews certainly experienced a fantasy slump in his third year as a Philadelphia Eagle. The biggest difference between Matthews’ first two seasons and the most recent one was the number of touchdown grabs he hauled in.
After reaching the end zone eight times in each of his first two seasons, Matthews crossed the goal-line just three times in 2016. Touchdowns are the most difficult aspect of fantasy football to predict because there are so many variables that affect the opportunity to score. The addition of Alshon Jeffrey will diminish Jordan Matthews’ red zone opportunities but will open up the defense quite a bit for Matthews to create for himself.
In 2016, the Eagles leaned heavily on Jordan Matthews in the passing game, hoping Nelson Agholor, Bryce Treggs, or Josh Huff would step up as the WR2. Eek. That resulted in some bad wide receiver play.
This explains why the Eagles’ tight ends and running backs accounted for 62% of the target share after Jordan Matthews’ targets were removed. Defenses could defend Matthews with top corners, while still having the capability to bracket Matthews with a safety or linebacker due to the weak overall passing attack for the Eagles. When it comes to receptions and yards, Matthews has been rather consistent in his first three years.
Removing touchdowns, Matthews scored 154.2 points, 184.7 points, and 153.4 points in each season respectively. At his current ADP of 48th, Matthews would need to score 159 points to match 2016’s equivalent 48th scorer: Ted Ginn. Comparing to Matthews’ first three seasons, he would need to put up similar reception and yardage numbers and haul in a handful of touchdowns to exceed the value of his draft capital.
If Matthews happens to return to the touchdown numbers he reached in 2014 and 2015, he will far exceed value. Knowing that touchdown rate can vary from year to year, I’m willing to take the risk on Jordan Matthews in the ninth round or later.
John Ross (CIN) – Current ADP: 140 (WR57)
The Bengals have been begging for a wide receiver to fill the WR2 role for a few years now. They have high hopes that the rookie speedster John Ross out of Washington will be the man for the job. Last year, the WR2 title belonged to Brandon LaFell, who received 107 targets and finished the year as the WR35 in fantasy scoring.
LaFell isn’t exactly the most physically gifted receiver in the NFL, so finishing the season at 35th is impressive. Some of this is due to the absence of A.J. Green for a portion of the season, but Tyler Boyd had 81 footballs thrown in his direction last year as the WR3. Boyd was a good prospect coming out of college but he, too, lacks the athleticism to compare to John Ross.
NFL offenses are leaning more and more on getting the ball to freak athletes in space and letting them work their magic. Andy Reid used Tyreek Hill in this fashion on his way to 12 all-purpose touchdowns in his rookie year. Hill closed out the season as the WR18 despite being undrafted in most fantasy leagues. Hue Jackson used Terrelle Pryor as both a quarterback and a wide receiver in hopes of Pryor touching the ball as often as possible.
Pryor finished the year as WR20 despite being drafted as WR64. John Ross is the type of player that will have Bengals’ offensive coordinator Ken Zampese up all night concocting ways to get him the ball while opposing defensive coordinators will have a far more terrifying version of insomnia.
Based on seasons’ past with Andy Dalton under center, the targets should be there for John Ross in 2017. So then the question must be asked: what will John Ross do with those targets? He’s a crisp route runner whose speed is unmatched by anyone in the history of the NFL.
I find it very difficult to envision a season in which Ross doesn’t make some big plays and exceed his draft capital. He’s currently being drafted in the 12th round of 12-team PPR drafts. At his current ADP, he would need to match his teammate Tyler Boyd’s 2016 season to reach value, and we’ve already discussed how much more athletic Ross is than Boyd.
Ross is a risky draft pick, but he’s one that could win you a championship with his big play ability. He certainly provides a higher ceiling than other wide receivers being taken around him, such as Kevin White, Sterling Shepard, Ted Ginn, and Breshad Perriman.
Kenny Golladay (DET) – Current ADP: 222 (WR79)
At 6’4, 218 lbs, Kenny Golladay would be hard to overlook. I’m willing to wager, however, that you could add him to your roster with the final pick of your draft in most leagues. The rookie out of Northern Illinois is currently going undrafted in 12-team leagues with 16 man rosters.
If you’re looking for a safe pick, you may as well elect to stop reading at this point. If you’re looking for a pick that could have your opponents either bowing to you or laughing at you, stay locked in.
In college, Golladay put together two very impressive seasons at Northern Illinois, catching 160 passes for 2,285 yards and 18 touchdowns. The Lions will be looking to replace 85 targets that went to Anquan Boldin last year. Many analysts believed that Boldin would fill the role of the retired future Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson.
While Boldin had a good season, he was nowhere close to the option that Calvin Johnson was for Matthew Stafford in years prior. Stafford’s quarterbacking style can often be described as “spray and pray,” a term coined in the Call of Duty video game series to describe players who shoot crazily in the general direction of an enemy hoping something hits. Calvin Johnson was the perfect complement to Stafford’s willingness to heave the ball into coverage and let his receiver win.
The Lions’ organization must have noticed the lack of a jump ball receiver on the 2016 roster because they used a third round pick to get Golladay to fill that role. Golladay should be able to muscle up on defensive backs by combining his 35.5” vertical leap with his sheer size and strength.
Kenny Golladay very well may be available on the waiver wire after the first few weeks, but you can guarantee he’s on your roster by using one of the last picks of your draft to get him. On a team that finished 11th, fourth, and 11th the last three seasons respectively in pass attempts, you will want some exposure to the Detroit passing game.
Golden Tate is a great option early, but Marvin Jones is too inconsistent for me to use a mid-round draft capital for and Eric Ebron has been a disappointment so far in his young career. I believe that Kenny Golladay will give you the most return on investment.
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Nick Johnson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @bigplaycoachj.
