R.C. Fischer discusses deep sleeper candidate and LA Chargers running back Andre Williams.
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Which part of this proposed ‘Very Deep Sleeper’ do you hate more? That Andre Williams is being proposed as a relevant NFL talent, or the obvious Melvin Gordon depth chart/touch count block?
Have you forgotten Williams has not only had big performances in college but burst onto the scene successfully as an NFL rookie?
Have you overlooked that Melvin Gordon is possibly the most overrated starting running back in the NFL?
Worse case with this report you’re going to be nervous about Gordon’s lofty valuations for 2017. I think football analysts are conned by Gordon, endorsing him without question, and are pushing the con down to the fan while suckering in many a fantasy GM. Don’t worry, I’ll explain. Many of you took that anti-Gordon banter worse than if I had insulted one of your parents. Hang with me here.
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The Chargers have a new head coach, Anthony Lynn formerly the man who designed/called the run game for Buffalo (a Rex Ryan disciple) where LeSean McCoy and Mike Gillislee got work and produced numbers (and Karlos Williams was ‘a thing’ in 2015). Lynn has a history of (1) wanting to run the ball, a lot, and (2) getting more than one RB involved.
Lynn now calls all the shots, for the first time, for the Chargers. They are going to be running the ball a bunch. You probably agree with that assessment. But why should you think Lynn would care about long forgotten Andre Williams? Allow me to share three quotes from Lynn back in March 2017.
“I think Andre Williams is going to step up and do what he did his rookie year in New York.”
“Coming out of school I studied Andre. He’s a big back, he ran with good power. He’s a very disciplined athlete, he’s lost weight, he’s quicker now. And he still runs with power. Just teach him some things out of the backfield and the receiving game and things like that that can help him get more touches and he’s going to be fine.”
“We’re looking for a guy who can be a tandem back with Melvin. I like to run the football multiple ways and it’s going to take more than one runner.”
I’m not just some Andre Williams advocate dreaming up scenarios. Actually, I’m more an anti-Melvin Gordon realist and I’m trying to locate any opportunity of the potential failure, much like I did with Jeremy Langford, a universal fantasy analyst’s top guy this time last year. And like I did with Gordon in his rookie season (2015). Thanks, Danny Woodhead for a terrific 2015!
Here’s the Chargers roster at running back, currently:
As you can see, the Chargers did not draft or sign a running back of note this offseason. Williams has a legit opportunity at the No. 2 role as it stands today. Undrafted Branden Oliver is not very talented, often hurt, and is definitely not a bruiser like Williams. Undrafted Kenneth Farrow has developmental potential but is probably not ready for the spotlight as of yet (he flopped, kinda, in his late-season 2016 opportunity). Former sixth-round pick now on his millionth team Kenjon Barner might actually be the most all-around talented No. 2 RB on this roster. Williams is unique in this race for the No. 2 role because he has size like none other on this roster, and an NFL track record of success greater than anyone not named Melvin Gordon. Plus, he has a history with the coach.
Have you forgotten that Williams was a solid running back prospect coming out of Boston College? He ran for 2,177 yards (6.1 ypc) with 18 TDs his final year of college. He was drafted by the Giants, and as a rookie he led the team in rushing (721 yards) and scored seven TDs.
Williams is not the next great NFL workhorse, but he is a legit NFL between-the-tackles runner and goal line big body – a 5′11″/230 guy who runs a 4.5+ 40. He’s a load, and he has nice speed and burst for his size. It’s why he was drafted and played right away for the Giants. He has a unique size and burst combination. He can be useful as part of an RBBC for an NFL team, and Anthony Lynn seems like he wants to share the workload some with his 2017 backfield.
Also note, Andre Williams cannot catch a football. He is nothing in the passing game. You use him to wear down defenses and get short yards as needed, knowing he might pop one or two with his size/speed.
The Melvin Gordon aspect to this is Gordon is a weak NFL running back. Gordon is measured about as fast as Williams from their respective NFL Combines, but is 15+ pounds lighter than Williams. Gordon is a very limited, indecisive runner. In two NFL seasons, Gordon has tallied 3.5 and 3.9 yards per carry, which is terrible from a main-carry, first-round draft pick runner. Last season, he had one big game against Tennessee. Outside of that he posted 3.6 ypc in all his other 2016 touches. Minus his one outlier game in 2016, Gordon is a 3.5+ yards per carry RB in his career, and that’s a borderline nightmare. Most guys with such stats would have lost their jobs by now, but Gordon has ‘draft status’ protecting him. Williams has a low yards per carry rate in the NFL as well, but he’s also been in a role of short yardage guy, so it’s to be expected to a degree.
What has Gordon’s career been, when you look back over it? A disastrous rookie season, literally having people make fun of his inefficiencies and indecisiveness. A moderate second season spiced up by a bunch of fortuitous short TD runs early in the season (six TDs his first four games) to make us forget all the other issues.
Here are Gordon’s 10 rushing TDs by distance last season: 1-6-3-1-1-1-2-3-1-2. Half of them a yard away, 90% of them within three yards out.
Gordon is not a breakaway or dominating threat to defenses. He’s caught in the backfield more than most RBs in the NFL by percentage. Gordon’s mediocrity was covered in 2016 by a flurry of short TD runs and a nice workload.
The highest percentage of rushing attempts stuffed behind the line of scrimmage in 2016 among players with 200+ carries…
- 15.4% = LeSean McCoy
- 14.5% = Devonta Freeman
- 14.2% = Jay Ajayi
- 13.0% = Melvin Gordon
- 12.9% = Carlos Hyde
In 2015, the same stat among RBs with 180+ carries (using 180 because Gordon had 184 totes)
- 14.4% = Adrian Peterson
- 14.3% = LeSean McCoy
- 12.5% = Doug Martin, Devonta Freeman, Melvin Gordon
Running backs tend to show up on this ‘negative’ list if they play in a predictable, run-heavy offense usually with a QB who defenses do not respect and thus defensive fronts are always stacked. Or it is their own talent or an erosion of talent that is to blame.
You see LeSean McCoy up there at No. 1 on the negative run list two years in a row. Known run-heavy team (Buffalo was the No. 2 in the NFL the past two seasons in rushing attempts)…with his RB coach turned OC Anthony Lynn. Melvin Gordon wasn’t on an all-run offense (No. 22 and No. 20 in rushing attempts as a team the past two seasons), plus he had the advantage of working with a respected QB. Also, note Danny Woodhead (9.2% runs caught behind the LOS in 2015) did not suffer the same issues. I think Gordon’s indecisiveness and lack of measured top speed at the Combine and his moderate size among NFL RBs are all indicators pointing towards a debate about how good of an RB Gordon really is.
People will want to blame the offensive line, and we see the Chargers’ line is graded poorly, but I would speculate are bad O-Line grades truly because of the line or could it be that a mediocre running back makes them look bad in appearance or statistically? If you assume Gordon is great then you hate/blame the Chargers’ O-Line. But what if that is masking the Gordon issue? Things were a lot more golden when Gordon worked behind college football’s best offensive line/run game at Wisconsin…
I’m just saying there are Gordon issues lurking, waiting to be exposed for what they are. We might see the collision of a mediocre talent running back forced into an offense that opponents know is going to run the ball a lot. It’s a potentially combustable situation that could lead to some disappointment from Gordon. It also means other running backs are going to have to see touches, regardless of how effective Gordon is (or isn’t).
It could be a fantasy simple/crushing as if you were the coach of the Chargers and you had two guys similar in speed (Gordon and Williams) but one was 230+ pounds and the other 215 pounds who would you give the goal line opportunities to? In 2015, LeSean McCoy rushed for three TDs. Bigger back Karlos Williams rushed for seven TDs.
What if Gordon’s rushing TDs get cut in half because Williams takes a chunk of them?
What if Gordon flops again while Williams actually moves the offense a little as a LeGarrette Blount type of pounder/bruiser? Could there be a bigger split of carries in an RBBC than anyone would have expected?
What if Gordon gets hurt or the coach gets tired of him fumbling? Gordon had the highest fumble rate among main-carry RBs in 2015. Someone has to be ‘the handcuff.’ I’m not a huge fan of Williams at all. I’m just saying there are Melvin Gordon issues and a new run-oriented head coach, and Williams is in position to matter all of a sudden. Williams is a simple battering ram ‘big back’ working for a coach who likes him and who loves to pound the ball on offense.
If it’s not Williams to pressure Gordon, look to see who emerges from training camp or is grabbed off cut-downs by the Chargers. Some backup RB is a ‘Very Deep Sleeper’ on this Chargers team. I say Williams is in the lead for that honor today.
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