As we’ve gone through the offseason, player values have taken their shape. You know who you like, but do you know where they’re being drafted? Throughout the offseason, I’ve participated in a combination of roughly 75 best-ball leagues and mock drafts. That’s not including the five dynasty drafts I’ve done. It’s quite ridiculous, actually. With that being said, I understand the values of every player in fantasy football. While rankings may be different from analyst to analyst, I’ve put together tier lists for you to go into your drafts with.
We’ve finally made it to the tight end position, gang. Over the last few weeks, we’ve gone through the quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers, tier-by-tier, player-by-player. If you somehow missed those, here are the links to them:
Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
While you may not agree with the order that some players are listed, these are the tiers that you should use when drafting. If you like a player at the bottom of a tier more than others, congrats, that’s what we call fantasy gold. You’re able to sit back and take other positions of value before snagging the last player in a tier. It also depends on team construction, as you don’t want a roster full of high-upside, high-risk players. You need some consistency in your life. Ok, I’m starting to sound like your parents. Maybe it’s time we just get into the tight end tiers.
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Tier One (Round 2)
If you were able to guarantee Gronkowski playing all 16 games, he’d be locked and loaded as a first-round pick. The issue is that he hasn’t done that since 2011. In fact, he’s now missed an average of 4.8 per year over the last four seasons. Still, he gives you so much certainty at an unpredictable position, you can take on that risk in the second round. If he falls to the third, he should be an auto-draft for you.
Tier Two (Round 3)
Last offseason, I said that if there was anyone who could challenge Gronkowski, it’d be Kelce. He played in Andy Reid’s tight end friendly offense and had racked up 139 receptions for 1,737 yards and 10 touchdowns over his first two seasons, and that was while seeing less than 200 targets. In fact, he saw just 190 targets, which was 11 fewer than the Eagles Zach Ertz had seen, but Kelce totaled 229.7 fantasy points compared to Ertz’s 181.4 fantasy points. If Kelce started scoring more often, he was going to be a monster. Well, he only scored four touchdowns in 2016, but still finished as the No. 1 tight end. If it wasn’t for Alex Smith‘s limited upside, Kelce would be in the Gronk tier.
Tier Three (Rounds 4-5)
I’ll be honest, I didn’t even want to put Reed here, but if he is able to get on the field, he belongs in tier two. He’s another one whose durability is so much of a concern, you have to suppress his draft position. The fact that he is apparently dealing with a broken bone in his foot, you should approach with extreme caution. The warning signs are there. As for Olsen, he’s Mr. Reliable. If there was a such thing as dependability at the position, Olsen is it, as he’s now produced at least 1,000 yards in three straight seasons, and that includes Cam Newton‘s awful 2016 season. He’s not going to reach round one potential, but you’re not drafting him to do that, either.
Tier Four (Rounds 6-8)
Tyler Eifert
Martellus Bennett
Kyle Rudolph
Jimmy Graham
Jack Doyle
Delanie Walker
This is what I was talking about in the intro. The issue with relying on rankings alone is that they don’t reflect how much risk you have on your roster. If you have a lot already, it’s probably best to go with someone like Rudolph who led the league (at tight end) in targets last year. If you have safety and you’re looking to hit it big at tight end, Eifert and Bennett have legitimate top-two upside. Graham is the tough cookie to crack because Russell Wilson played his best ball over the second half of the season, and that’s when Graham started to struggle. He lost 20 pounds this offseason, which shouldn’t hurt his speed at all. He’s a perfect blend of safety and upside, which is why he’s in the middle of the tier. Walker’s upside is definitely capped this year with the arrival of multiple competent wide receivers to the offense.
Tier Five (Rounds 8-9)
Hunter Henry
Zach Ertz
Eric Ebron
You want upside? This is the tier for you. Arguably the end of the every-week starters, these guys are not for the faint of heart. Antonio Gates hasn’t gone away and most don’t seem to realize Henry saw just 53 targets in 2016. There was no other tight end who saw fewer than 73 targets to finish in the top 18 tight ends last year. Ertz saw a major bump in projected value when Jordan Matthews was traded, as his two most productive games last year were with Matthews out of the lineup. If Ebron scored six or more touchdowns, he’s likely to finish as a top-five tight end because we know the targets and yardage will be there.
Tier Six (Rounds 10-12)
Coby Fleener
Jason Witten
Julius Thomas
Austin Hooper
It would appear that Witten doesn’t quite fit in with this bunch, but he’s a borderline TE1. In fact, if you have enough upside on the rest of your roster, I’d be good using Witten every week. Fleener finished as a top-12 tight end last year, despite how bad he actually was. The Saints didn’t add anyone to compete with him, but rather traded away Brandin Cooks. It’s in the realm of possibilities that he finishes as a top-six tight end. Hooper did well in his role last year, but it was a very small sample size. How will the Falcons use him in a non-Kyle Shanahan offense? Thomas hasn’t been the same player without Peyton Manning, but it helps that he’s returning to Adam Gase’s offense, the one he was in with Manning.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
