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Week 7 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions

Oct 20, 2017

How will Doug Martin do against a tough run defense?

Last week, I didn’t get the three correct bold predictions I aim for each week, but the Saints DST call was a huge hit. It appears I was a week early on Demarcus Robinson beginning his breakout. Hopefully this week we can hit another home run while nailing a few others as well. Here is what I have for you.

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#8 Alshon Jeffery will be a top 5 WR

Let’s get this out of the way: Alshon has been a big disappointment with just 2 touchdowns and one game over 8 fantasy points. You’ve got to give the man some credit for managing to produce even that much against the likes of Josh Norman, Marcus Peters, Janoris Jenkins, Casey Hayward, Patrick Peterson and James Bradberry. That is the gauntlet, and far more difficult than anyone else in football has had to deal with. He has 8.0 targets per game even despite those blankets, so now that he finally has a decent matchup against the Redskins, who will be missing Norman and Breeland, he could break out for a huge game.
Final Prediction: 8 receptions, 92 yards, 1 TD

#7 Matt Ryan will be the #1 QB

As virtually everyone expected, Ryan has seen significant negative regression in the touchdown rate department. The Falcons haven’t exactly thrown the ball with him much either and his fantasy points have yet to surpass 17 in a week, but this week should be a different story. The expected game script lines up for 40+ passes and the Patriots have the single easiest pass defense in the league so far this season.
Final Prediction: 302 yards, 4 TD

#6 Derrick Henry will be a top 10 RB

The Titans said this week that they plan on splitting carries between the two for the remainder of the season. Demarco Murray has a strained hammy, however. Or perhaps he has been performing so poorly that he is pretending he has a strained hammy. In a game that Tennessee is expected to win by quite a bit against the Browns, it makes little sense for them to throw Murray out there for his usual workload, which would give us Henry, one of the best backs in the league, for perhaps 15+ touches against a lousy defense. Sign me up.
Final Prediction: 14 carries, 96 yards, 1 td, 1 reception, 9 yards

#5 Zay Jones will be a top 30 WR

Zay has done absolutely nothing this season, unless you count 2 receptions for 18 yards (his best game) as something. He does lead all Bills receivers in snaps and targets, however, and you’d think someone would step up against Tampa Bay, who has been easiest on fantasy receivers of any team. Volume would tell you Jones is the most likely. I’m not advising anyone starts him outside of a deep league, but this should be his best game of the season, and perhaps he turns it all around from here on out.
Final Prediction: 6 receptions, 76 yards

#4 The Buffalo Bills will have a top 3 DST

No, they aren’t going to get three defensive touchdowns like the Saints last week, but they do share something in common with New Orleans: the opposing quarterback is expected to play through a pretty serious injury. The Bucs haven’t even let Jameis throw the ball yet, but he and the team insist he is playing. As we know, Jameis is turnover prone and can melt down after a big mistake or two. Buffalo has been rolling this season with multiple interceptions in 4 of 5 games and 12 sacks while they haven’t allowed over 20 points once. They’ve got a safe floor and huge upside this week.
Final Prediction: 2 sacks, 1 fumble, 4 interceptions, 1 TD, 13 pts allowed

#3 Jimmy Graham will be the #1 TE

There are all kinds of great matchups this weekend for the top tight ends, but none if better than Graham against the Giants. They have surrendered a league-leading 17 points per game to tight ends this season. Graham is coming off the bye and a solid three-game run with 17 receptions. He has only gotten in the end zone once this season, but with Dominique Rodgers Cromartie coming back to cover Doug Baldwin, Graham should see increased red-zone opportunities in Week 7.
Final Prediction: 7 receptions, 111 yards, 1 TD

#2 Doug Martin will be a top 5 RB

This one isn’t about the matchup, as Buffalo’s run defense has been tough. Rather, it is based on the notion that the Muscle Hampster is a bonafide star. We’ve seen it before, as both times he has been healthy, he was a top 5 running back. Two weeks is a small sample size, but he has looked terrific, and if Jameis Winston is out, or playing at less than 100%, Martin could see his workload bump up to around 20 touches. 
Final Prediction: 19 carries, 114 yards, 2 TD, 1 rec, 4 yards

#1 Marlon Mack will be a top 3 Waiver Wire pickup

Mack had some momentum in the pickup department two weeks ago after his big game, but he took a back seat in Week 6 and many people gave up on him. Now that Robert Turbin is out, however, his role should more than double. Turbin saw 5 targets last week and just two fewer snaps than Frank Gore. All of that work should go to Mack, who has as much big-play upside as perhaps any running back in football. Jacksonville has a terrific defense, but their funnel running defending scheme has allowed a number of huge plays to lesser opponents like Elijah McGuire and Bilal Powell
Final Prediction: 10 carries, 78 yards, 1 TD, 5 rec, 64 yards, 1 TD

**Bonus Super Duper Bold Prediction**
The Baltimore Ravens will trade for Carlos Hyde. They made it clear that they were looking to acquire a running back when they finished a close second to the Arizona Cardinals for Adrian Peterson. They’ve got Alex Collins who is playing well, but they won’t trust him with double-digit carries because of his fumble problems. Javorius Allen and Terrance West are still around two, but Hyde would be a significant upgrade that might turn a fringe playoff contender into a wildcard front-runner.

Thanks for reading and happy football season!

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