In a 5×5 roto league or 10-category roto league, home runs may only make up one category, but every time one is hit, it positively impacts four categories so you could make say it is the single most important of the categories. While you may think the same ole’ sluggers bop out 30+ home runs every single year, and thus it is easy to predict and draft for, you would be quite wrong. Check out some of the odd guys who finished in the top 10 last season in homers and where they were selected in 2017 fantasy baseball drafts:

• Aaron Judge (52 homers, 24th round pick)
• Joey Gallo (41 homers, 25th round pick)
• Cody Bellinger (39 homers, 27th round pick)
• Justin Smoak (38 homers, 15th round pick)
• Logan Morrison (38 homers, undrafted)

Today, I’ve got 12 names spread throughout the draft who offer much more in the homer department than the public consensus seems to recognize. I’ll be targeting each of them when I’m looking for a big boost in home runs and the corresponding categories they impact.

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Cornerstone Crushers

Manny Machado (3B/SS – BAL)
It is easy to look at Machado’s disappointing .259 batting average and 33 homers and just assume that he had peaked and is now coming back down to earth a bit. This couldn’t be further from the truth. He torched the baseball last year, leading all MLB hitters with 170 triple-digit exit velocities. In fact, his 6.64% exit velos of 100 MPH or higher was substantially better than even Aaron Judge (4.99%). Machado suffered from the worst batted ball luck of any hitter last season so don’t be surprised if he takes a major jump from 33 to 45+ homers in his age 25 season this year.

J.D. Martinez (OF – BOS)
I get it, he hit 45 homers last year so it is tough to chalk him up as an underrated slugger, but hear me out. He did that while missing FIFTY games to injury. Had he played a full season at the rate he was hitting the ball out of the park, we would have hit 61 homers. There was only one qualified hitter last season who hit a homer in over 10% of his at-bats. It wasn’t Giancarlo Stanton, nor was it Aaron Judge. It was J.D Martinez. And let’s not forget that Stanton has been even more injury prone over his career than Martinez, playing over 125 games just twice in the past six seasons. Oh, by the way, looking beyond JD’s odds of leading the majors in homers, he has batted over .300 in three of the past four seasons.

Gary Sanchez (C – NYY)
Like the two names above, you might not need to be sold much on Gary’s power, but believe me, it is even more substantial than you likely realize. Not only does he average 49 homers per 162 games thus far in his short career, but he has accomplished it as a catcher, where homers are difficult to come by. Think of it this way: a hitter only helps you when he achieves beyond the baseline statistics at his position. Greg Bird may hit 30 homers, but if the 13th best first basemen hits 26 then Bird essentially only gives you 4 more than you could have picked up off the waivers. Sanchez, meanwhile, may “only” hit 35 to 40 homers, but when that is 15 above the next best catcher and 30 above the replacement level, he actually offers more home run value than even Giancarlo Stanton when you think about it.

Mid-Round Mashers

Matt Olson (1B/OF – OAK)
Remember how I mentioned that J.D. Martinez beat even Stanton and Judge with a whopping 10% home run rate? Well, Olson blew J.D. out of the water. The A’s rookie hit one in 12.7% of his at-bats, or more often than 1 in 8 times at bat. When Roger Maris was setting the record with 61 homers, he hit one about 1 in every 10 times to the plate. It makes sense, then, that if you pro-rate his season to 550 at-bats, Olson was on pace to knock SEVENTY out of the yard. Granted, that won’t happen this year, but 50 is a legitimate possibility. Ok, last stat, I can’t help myself: Going into last year, the most homers any player with fewer than 200 at-bats hit in a season was 18. Olson notched 24, destroying the record and fan-favorite, Rhys Hoskins, in the process.

Miguel Sano (3B – MIN)
Sano is currently under investigation for an alleged assault. With that said, if he stays on the field this year, he is a sleeper to lead the world in homers. He hasn’t given fantasy owners a full season, but we have seen a consistent rate of 35 to 40 homers per 162 games. In the minors, his power was unquestionably among the top in baseball and seeing that he is still just 24 years old, there is plenty of reason to believe that we haven’t seen the best of him.

Nomar Mazara (OF – TEX)
You may want to chalk Mazara up as a bust after he batted .253 with just 20 homers last season, but let’s not forget that he is still 22 years old! There have been fewer than 30 players in MLB history with at least two seasons of 20 or more homers before they turned 23 years old. This list makes it very clear that it is not the time to give up on Mazara.

• Ted Williams
• Jimmie Foxx
• Mickey Mantle
• Mike Trout
• Hank Aaron
• Albert Pujols
• Ken Griffey Jr.
• Joe DiMaggio
• Bryce Harper
• Giancarlo Stanton
• Mel Ott
• Al Kaline
• Eddie Mathews
• Miguel Cabrera
• Cal Ripken Jr.
• Carlos Correa
• Eddie Murray
• Freddie Freeman
• Johnny Bench
• Ryan Zimmerman
• Andruw Jones
• Jay Bruce
• NOMAR MAZARA

Don’t forget that Rangers’ executives were proclaiming that Mazara had even more raw power than Joey Gallo, who as you know, has 50 home run upside. Mazara might not do that this season, but I also can’t guarantee that he won’t.

Late-Draft Lottery Tickets

Willie Calhoun (OF/2B – TEX)
Joining Mazara in the Rangers outfield this season should be the rookie, Calhoun, who has a decent chance at being the top rookie in baseball this season. He knocked 31 homers in 128 games last season while batting .300. He doesn’t strike out much and despite being just 5’8″, his bat has a different sound that is only reserved for true stars. He more than likely will only hit 20 to 25 bombs this season in around 400 at-bats, but he’s got an outside shot at breaking onto the scene with 35 in 2o18.

Jedd Gyorko (3B/2B/1B – STL)
The Cardinals’ utility man has always had some pop, but he turned it up another level or two after the 2016 all-star break. Since then, he has proceeded to swat 43 homers in 670 at-bats. That isn’t an elite level, obviously, but suffice to say, if he played a full season, 35+ is well within the realm of possibilities for this middle infield eligible slugger.

Randal Grichuk (OF – TOR)
What Grichuk is unfortunately most well known for is being drafted one pick ahead of Mike Trout. He has quietly been a Statcast hero, however, and has given fantasy owners some of the best power streaks in all of baseball. Perhaps a change of scenery will help him garner a more consistent approach, and certainly the new hitter’s ballpark won’t hurt much. If he can string together a full season of prime-Grichuk, he may be the surprise hitter with 35+ homers this year.

Yasmany Tomas (OF – ARI)
Tomas had a negative WAR in 2017 and batted just .241 with 8 homers. He played through an injury, however, for 47 games and frankly should have just sat out all of 2017. Before we discredit him, though, can we just remember that he is just a year removed from hitting 25 homers in his final 364 at-bats? While a full bill of health is far from a lock, that is a pace of 38 homers over a full season and let’s not pretend the kid has reached his full potential already.

Bonus Bashers for Deep Leagues

Bobby Bradley (1B/OF – CLE)
If you are looking for this year’s Aaron Judge or Cody Bellinger, you are almost certainly out of luck. Those type of rookies only come along once in a generation. With that said, Bradley is your best bet to be the closest thing to it this year. He is by no means worthy of being drafted in a standard league since he doesn’t figure to start the year in the big leagues, but in deeper leagues, you might want to add him in the last round. Once he is called up to Cleveland, don’t hesitate to pick him up in 10 to 12 team leagues before it is too late. Terry Francona has been raving about the top 100 prospect, saying he is knocking on the door to be called up already. After winning the triple crown in his MILB debut, he proceeded to knock a total of 87 homers over 1500 at-bats. Add in the fact that he cut 30 bad-pounds this off-season and has been playing against much older competition, and you’ve got to wonder if 40 homers is out of the question for him someday.

Jorge Soler (OF – KC)
Sure, he has struggled in his first three seasons and battled a number of injuries, but he still has loads of raw power and is a good bet to get a crack at the opening day lineup the wasteland that is Kansas City’s outfield. Don’t forget just how dominant he looked in a small sample size as a rookie, nor that he is a former top 10 prospect who ate the minor leagues alive. He posted a .340/.432/.700 line which was better in every area than Kris Bryant, who was older and played for the same team in the same year. Chew on that and tell me he can’t be this year’s Logan Morrison in his age 26 season.

Players to Target for AVG/OBP
Players to Target for RBIs
Players to Target for Steals

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