The opening week of the MLB season is upon us, and it’s an unusual one in most head-to-head leagues. Because the season starts on a Thursday, the first “week” of the season in most head-to-head leagues is actually a week and a half (much like many providers handle the All-Star Break). With that in mind, this week’s Weekly Planner is bumped up a few days from its normal publishing slot, and it will look at the remainder of this week as well as next week. Things will return to normal next week with a Friday publish date. Moving on, it wouldn’t be the beginning of the baseball season without me providing caution against knee-jerk reactions to the first few games of the season. No, you shouldn’t dump your first-round pick in favor of an undrafted player who popped a couple taters on Opening Day. Hyperbole aside, gamers shouldn’t overreact to the first few games of the season. Having said that, it’s prudent to keep tabs on lineup spots, velocity increases for pitchers, and potential batted-ball changes for players who could be joining the elevate-and-celebrate crew. Winning fantasy baseball requires a careful balance of patience and speculation. Revisiting the hyperbolic hypothetical, there’s nothing wrong with dumping a late-round pick or dollar player in favor of the undrafted player who reaches the seats a couple times on Opening Day. Now, let’s dive into the opening week-plus of the MLB season.
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Notable Matchups
Pirates @ Tigers (3), vs Twins (2), vs Reds (4)
Pittsburgh’s lineup gets a small pick-me-up with the services of a designated hitter for their first three games of the season before they return home for six contests.
Nationals @ Reds (3), @ Braves (3), vs Mets (3)
Washington’s bats are treated to a three-game set at hitter-friendly (and homer-friendly) Great American Ball Park to kickoff their 2018 campaign. They’ll also have a mouth-watering matchup with Homer Bailey on Opening Day with the potential for more soft pitching matchups for the bulk of their first nine games to start the year.
Reds vs Nationals (3), vs Cubs (2), @ Pirates (4)
On the plus side for Cincinnati’s offense, they’re home for their first five games. On the negative side, though, they have some brutal pitching draws opening with Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg in back-to-back games. They also face Gio Gonzalez in the third contest (I’m bearish on Gonzalez this year, but it could be a tough matchup) and Jon Lester in the fifth game of the year. Even Tyler Chatwood stands out as a potentially difficult matchup since he’s pitched so well away from Coors Field over the last two years.
Diamondbacks vs Rockies (3), vs Dodgers (3), @ Cardinals (3)
We don’t have to wait at all to get our first look at new humidor Chase Field. Arizona opens with back-to-back three-game series at home against National League West foes. Here’s a quick reminder of the significant impact the humidor projects to have on homers at Chase Field.
Rockies @ Diamondbacks (3), @ Padres (4), vs Braves (3)
New humidor Chase Field is a far less desirable road tilt for the Rockies than it’s been in past years. Four games at pitcher-friendly Petco Park is rough, too. Colorado plays their first home game to jump off a three-game set next Friday (April 6). You’re not sitting your studs from the Rockies, but in weekly lineup change formats, gamers can consider sitting fringe starters.
Dodgers vs Giants (4), @ Diamondbacks (3), @ Giants (3)
The Dodgers loaded offense plays two series and seven games total against San Francisco’s injury-ravaged rotation. There will be no World Series hangover, and the potential is there for some big scoring outbursts against their division rival.
Mariners vs Indians (3), @ Giants (2), @ Twins (3)
There’s a double dose of bad news for Seattle’s hitters in the first week and a half. First, they only play eight total games compared to nine and 10 for a number of other clubs. Additionally, they’ll be without the services of a designated hitter for two games at extremely pitcher-friendly AT&T Park.
Twins @ Orioles (3), @ Pirates (2), Mariners (3)
I could almost copy and paste Seattle’s write-up for the Twins. Like the Mariners, the Twins play only eight games in the first week and a half, and they, too, play two games without a designated hitter in a pitcher-friendly National League park.
Hitter Notes
Kike Hernandez (LAD)
Looking for a sneaky streamer to open the season? Hernandez fits the bill. The lefty-masher will open the season with a pair of below-average southpaws in the first series facing Ty Blach and Derek Holland, and if the Diamondbacks opt to skip the fifth starter and turn their rotation back over to Opening Day starter Patrick Corbin, Hernandez will see another pair of southpaws in the form of Corbin and Robbie Ray in the second series. He’ll also likely see Holland a second time in their third series of the year. Last season, the utility man hit .270/.367/.579 with 10 homers, a 13.6% BB%, and 18.6% K% in 177 plate appearance against southpaws, according to FanGraphs. In 382 plate appearances against lefties in his career, he’s hit .270/.364/.518.
Jake Lamb (ARI)
In leagues with weekly lineup changes, Lamb is a prime sit candidate. The Diamondbacks are projected to face four southpaws — Tyler Anderson, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Clayton Kershaw, and Alex Wood — in their first nine games of the season. If your weekly lineup change league counts this abbreviated week and next week as separate weeks, it’s fine to start Lamb this week before benching him for next week as he’ll draw two righties in three games to start the year. The 27-year-old third baseman hit just .144/.269/.288 against lefties last year and has hit .159/.265/.301 against them in his career.
Dan Vogelbach (SEA)
Is Vogelbach the latest success story that results from a swing overhaul? In 68 plate appearances in Spring Training, he hit .407/.529/.926 with seven doubles, seven homers, 13 walks, and just 11 strikeouts. He led qualified Spring Training hitters in batting average, and his 1.455 OPS was more than 300 points higher than the next closest hitter — who is coincidentally the aforementioned Hernandez. I’m already stashing the burly slugger in one 13-team mixed keeper league to see if his success carries over the regular season, and gamers in all formats should keep tabs and be ready to pounce if he comes out of the gates hot.
J.D. Davis (HOU)
Davis beat out Tyler White for a spot on Houston’s active roster, and it’s worth monitoring if he gets the bulk of starts at first base while Yulieski Gurriel is potentially on the disabled list or serving his five-game suspension. I recently made the bold prediction that Davis will finish this year as a top-25 third baseman, and his power that was on display in the upper minors is quite intriguing.
Pitcher Notes
Zack Greinke (ARI)
Greinke dealt with a groin injury in the spring, but he’s slated to start Arizona’s third game of the season and had a sharp final spring tuneup. Having said that, his velocity was down this spring, and his fastball was reportedly sitting between 88-89 mph in his last Spring Training turn. The veteran righty opened last year with is fourseamer and sinker averaging between 90-91 mph for the first two months of the regular season, according to Brooks Baseball. For the season, his fourseam fastball had an average velo of 91.0 mph and sinker averaged 90.71 mph. The righty has the repertoire depth to succeed as his velocity continues to slip, but falling short of 90 mph with his heaters would put a lot of pressure on those secondaries. Keep an eye on the radar gun in his first start and other starts early in the year.
Tyler Glasnow (PIT)
Glasnow was once a highly-touted prospect, but he’s struggled mightily with his control and failed to translate his minor-league success to The Show. Last year he ironed out some of his control issues at the Triple-A level and was dominant, but he once again stumbled when called upon by the Pirates. He’s been developed as a starter, but he’ll open the year in Pittsburgh’s bullpen following a Spring Training in which he flashed his upside. He struck out 25 of 74 total batters faced (33.8% K%) and walked only five (6.8% BB%). Glasnow is a solid speculative stash in 12-team mixed leagues or larger, and he can be especially useful as a potential ratio boosting and high-strikeout reliever who’s starting pitcher eligible in leagues that differentiate between starting pitcher and relief pitcher slots.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.