Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Week 8

It’s often hard to know what to make of injuries with ambiguous descriptions like “elbow inflammation” and “shoulder stiffness.” But we witnessed an unfortunate example of the worst-case scenario last week with Angels closer Keynan Middleton.

When Middleton hit the DL with elbow soreness, he sounded optimistic that the injury wasn’t serious. But as I explained at the time, we’ve seen plenty of “elbow inflammation” diagnoses turn into fairly lengthy DL stays. The Angels seemed to agree with Middleton that the injury was minor because they brought him back quickly and proceeded to pitch him three times in four days. I’m not a doctor — and it’s easy to say after the fact — but that doesn’t seem like the wisest course of action for a young pitcher complaining of elbow pain. Now Middleton is set for season-ending Tommy John surgery.

Let Middelton’s misfortune serve as a reminder that when it comes to elbow and shoulder injuries with pitchers, fantasy owners can hope for the best — but they should prepare for the worst.

Here’s this week’s closer rankings:

View the Closer Depth Charts for all 30 teams

The Big Movers

Hunter Strickland
Strickland has been everything the Giants could have hoped for as their closer, and he deserves to hold the role for the rest of the season — and years to come. But as we’ve learned, players don’t always get what they deserve.

Mark Melancon will reportedly begin a rehab assignment on Sunday and could return in about two weeks. Melancon is owed a whopping $14 million per year in 2019 and 2020, and the Giants would surely love to find a way to offload his contract before the trade deadline, even if they have to eat some salary to do it. That is a much more likely proposition if Melancon can prove he can still handle the ninth inning, so the possibility exists that Strickland will once again have to patiently wait for his chance to close games in San Francisco.

Of course, the Giants are still very much in the playoff hunt, so they could decide to keep Strickland in the ninth and turn Melancon into a glorified set-up man. Or Melancon’s arm troubles could again come back to haunt him as he ramps up his mound work. So I wouldn’t look to desperately sell Strickland, but his owners should be aware of the possibility he temporarily loses his job, a possibility that is reflected in this week’s rankings.

Bud Norris
There weren’t a lot of big movers this week, so it’s worth highlighting Norris, who only moved up two spots but gained some much-needed job security. Norris has been pitching lights-out all year (2.14 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 12.43 K/9), but until now it still seemed like he would eventually cede the ninth inning to Greg Holland, he of the $14 million contract. After Holland’s latest meltdown (two runs on two hits and two walks in 1/3 inning on Wednesday), I’m no longer convinced that’s the case.

St. Louis is in the thick of the playoff chase, and you’d have to think John Mozeliak and Co. would rather look foolish for signing Holland than force a ninth-inning move that is bound to blow up in their faces. At this point, it’s impossible to envision Holland being in the closer conversation for at least another month, and the most likely scenario is that Norris holds the job all year long.

Random Musings

The Upper Echelon
There will always be a lot of volatility at the closer position, but it’s worth noting that we have a strong top tier of closers right now. There were no changes in the top-13 this week, and for good reason — they’re all getting the job done in the ninth inning and putting up good ratios and strikeout totals in the process. While there are some job security issues among the closers in the 15-20 range, you need to move outside the top-20 before you really start dealing with any big closer headaches.

Corey Knebel
Knebel hasn’t had a save opportunity since returning from the disabled list, but he’s pitching well and his last two appearances have come in the ninth inning of four- and five-run games. He seems like a good bet to get the Brewers’ next save chance. Josh Hader may still pick up the occasional save, particularly when Knebel needs a night off, but it looks like the Milwaukee bullpen is finally settling back into the arrangement we expected coming into the season.

Arodys Vizcaino
Vizcaino has pitched in six of the Braves’ last nine games, picking up four saves and blowing one. He is pitching pretty well overall despite the return of some of the control issues that plagued him in 2016 and looks to still be the top option for saves in Atlanta. But manager Brian Snitker has made a habit of talking up his other relievers as potential closers, first A.J. Minter and now Dan Winkler as well. If Vizcaino’s control issues catch up to him — or if he just hits one of the rough patches that most closers face at some point during the season — you have to think Snitker won’t hesitate to turn to Minter or Winkler. For now, Vizcaino belongs with Ken Giles, Bud Norris, and Hunter Strickland in the tier of valuable closers with some job security concerns.

Hector Neris
Neris plummeted down the rankings last week, and he drops a couple more spots this week. Phillies manager Gabe Kapler didn’t seem too keen on the idea of having a defined closer coming into the season, and while he used Neris as a traditional closer for the first six weeks, he could be moving away from that arrangement.

After Neris blew a save on May 11, Kapler turned to Edubray Ramos to close out the game on May 13. Then, with a three-run lead on May 16, Kapler used Ramos to retire the first two batters in the ninth before calling on Neris to get the final out — ensuring that neither reliever earned a save. I’m not quite ready to call this a committee situation yet, but it’s certainly trending in that direction.

Brad Brach
This could be Brach’s final week as the Orioles’ closer, as Darren O’Day could come off the DL sometime this week to regain a share of the ninth inning. Meanwhile, Zach Britton continues to make steady progress and remains on track to return in early-to-mid June. As I’ve mentioned in this space often, Buck Showalter has strongly suggested that Britton is his preferred choice to close games when healthy.

Toronto Blue Jays
We didn’t learn much more about the Blue Jays’ closer situation in the last week, as the team didn’t have any save opportunities and Roberto Osuna’s status remains totally up in the air.

Tyler Clippard remains the best bet for saves in Toronto at the moment. Clippard converted the only save opportunity the team has generated since Osuna’s departure, and he’s generally been pitching the ninth inning in close games. But Ryan Tepera, Seung Hwan Oh and John Axford are all legitimate options to step in if Clippard stumbles — or if manager John Gibbons simply changes his mind about how to handle his bullpen.

Osuna’s administrative leave has been extended to May 21, and it’s possible it is extended again as the League continues to investigate the assault charges against him. At this point, his fantasy owners can’t be expecting to have him back anytime soon.

Los Angeles Angels
So I guess I was right to be concerned about Keynan Middleton’s elbow after all. Middleton made a quick return from the DL, and then pitched three times in four days before re-aggravating the injury. Now he’s set for season-ending Tommy John surgery.

With Middleton out of the picture, the Angels’ bullpen is back to the completely undefined roles that manager Mike Scioscia seems to cherish. Jim Johnson and Justin Anderson have each picked up a save over the last 10 days, but neither one is pitching particularly well and they’ve both had their fair share of blowup outings already. Cam Bedrosian was once considered the team’s closer of the future, but he just hasn’t been able to get his act together over the last couple seasons.

If I had to own one Angels reliever, it would be Blake Parker, who hasn’t earned a save since March 30 but is the only one of this group who is actually pitching reasonably well at the moment. Parker served as the Angels’ de facto closer down the stretch last season and looked pretty good doing it. There’s not much reason to hope Scioscia will settle on a single closer anytime soon, but at least Parker won’t hurt your ratios while you wait to see if he gets some save chances.

Import your team to My Playbook for instant Waiver Wire advice

Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.