In fantasy football, marquee names and exciting young players sell. After the first few rounds of studs are off the board, we tend to reach for potential impact rookies, breakout sophomores, and other players we deem as possessing significant upside. As a result, dependable, proven contributors who are neither elite nor flashy tend to get pushed down draft boards to an almost criminal degree. It’s a situation that is clearly happening once more this year, and it’s making Tennessee Titans wide receiver Rishard Matthews one of the best values in all of fantasy football.
Flying under the radar is nothing new for Matthews. Even after a breakout 2016 campaign in which he snared 65 receptions for 945 yards and 9 touchdowns, he was still overlooked on draft day a year ago. In 2018 however, the situation has reached a new low. In Fantasy Pros’ Consensus Average Draft Position (ADP) rankings, Matthews is being drafted as the WR57. That’s not a typo. Matthews is actually being selected as the 153rd player off the board, which equates to a 13th-round ADP. Check out some of these fun facts:
•Other than the 56 receivers coming off the board before Matthews, there are 51 running backs, 21 quarterbacks, 15 tight ends, six DSTs, and three kickers with higher ADPs.
•Jameis Winston, Mark Ingram, Aaron Jones, and Julian Edelman are all facing multi-week suspensions, but remain ranked ahead of Matthews.
•Currently, he’s being taken behind rookie receivers Calvin Ridley and D.J. Moore, two players who have never even played a down of preseason football, and neither of whom is guaranteed a sizable target share out of the gate.
•Dez Bryant, who isn’t currently on an NFL roster, is being taken 19 picks higher than him.
This represents a severe disconnect from reality. Consider the following: Matthews was the PPR WR19 in 2016, and even in a less productive 2017 season in which he missed two games, he finished as the PPR WR36. Now he’s barely getting drafted at all, even though he will almost certainly be a part of a more productive offense. It doesn’t add up.
Turnover in Tennessee
The days of “exotic smashmouth” are over in the Music City. The Titans have a new head coach in Mike Vrabel, and perhaps more importantly, a new offensive coordinator in Matt LaFleur, who spent last year running the high-octane Rams offense with 2017 Coach of the Year Sean McVay. LaFleur also worked with Matt Ryan in Atlanta, most notably during Ryan’s MVP campaign in 2016. Now, in his first year as a play-caller, he will look to get the most out of Titans fourth-year signal caller Marcus Mariota.
After a promising start to his career, Mariota took a step back in 2017, averaging a career-low Touchdown Percentage of 2.9%. That is exactly half of what he averaged in 2016 (5.8%), and is considerably worse than the 5.1% he produced as a rookie. If Mariota performs in line with his career norms, Matthews could come close to duplicating the nine touchdowns he scored in 2017, his first season as a Titan.
It also helps that Matthews has established a strong connection with his quarterback over the last two seasons, and in a worst-case scenario, will be a productive number two receiver on a much more dynamic offense. If LaFleur and the coaching staff can get Mariota back on track, Matthews will benefit tremendously. Delanie Walker will still see plenty of targets, and the Titans will still look to run the ball quite a bit with Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis in the mix, but Matthews should still enjoy considerable volume. The veteran received a 21% target share in 2016, and followed that up with a 19% target share last season. There’s no reason to expect that number to drop. Not even the with the projected emergence of sophomore wideout Corey Davis.
For what it’s worth, I like Davis a lot as a prospect, and I do expect him to take over as the Titans’ number one receiver sooner than later. In fact, recent reports indicate that he looked terrific during the team’s mini-camp practices. But we need to remember how much he struggled in 2017, with a 52.3% catch rate and a horrific yards per target figure of 5.8. There is little doubt he will take a big step forward in year two, but early projections of a true breakout might be overly optimistic. As of now, Davis is being drafted 65th overall as the WR26. Matthews has proven to be a capable NFL player and is available an insane 88 picks later. That doesn’t add up.
The Wrap
Rishard Matthews has never recorded a 1,000-yard season, nor has he snared double-digit touchdown receptions in a single season. At 6’0″, 217 pounds, he isn’t an imposing physical specimen like Julio Jones or Mike Evans. As a former seventh-round pick, he didn’t come into the league with top-notch pedigree or high expectations. But none of that changes the fact that he has blossomed into a solid, productive wide receiver in both real life and fantasy football. If you have the chance to secure a potential high-end WR3 at the tail end of your 2018 draft, it’s a move you simply have to make.
Must-Have QB: Marcus Mariota
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David McCaffery is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive or follow him @mccaffmedia.