Week 6 of the NFL season proved to be a case of the haves and the have-nots when it came to kickers, as Jason Myers, Stephen Gostkowski, and Brett Maher each scored over 20 fantasy points for their respective owners, while Ryan Succop, Josh Lambo, Cody Parkey, and Graham Gano combined to score seven points.
With an ownership rate of just 2% in Yahoo formats, very few people cashed in on Myers’ career day of seven field goals and three extra points. But that was not the case with Gostkowski, a nearly universally owned player who proved to be a league-winning asset this week.
Owners who stood by Mason Crosby after last week’s debacle were rewarded on Monday Night Football with four field goals and three extra points in what turned out to be a nail-biting win for the Packers over the 49ers.
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Week 6 Stud Performances from widely-available kickers
Brett Maher (DAL) vs. Jacksonville: 6% ownership on Yahoo
A player who has been a recommended waiver add over the past two weeks, Maher kicked a career-high four field goals in Dallas’ shocking 40-7 win over the Jaguars on Sunday. Maher now has three consecutive weeks of at least double-digit fantasy points and should be considered a must-own K1 in all formats for the remainder of the season.
Jason Sanders (MIA) vs. Chicago: 1% ownership on Yahoo
Rookie kicker Jason Sanders from the University of New Mexico kicked three field goals, including a game-winner in overtime to secure the upset win over the Bears. Although Sanders has only one double-digit game this season, he could be in line for another strong performance this week at home against a Lions team that is a top-10 red zone defense over the past two seasons.
Dustin Hopkins (WAS) vs. Carolina: 2% ownership on Yahoo
For the second straight week, the Panthers defense produced a top-six fantasy kicker, as Dustin Hopkins kicked three field goals and two extra points in Washington’s 23-17 home victory over Carolina. It was Hopkins’ second double-digit fantasy point performance of the year, with the former Florida State Seminole averaging 10 points over his last four games.
Week 6 Dud Performances from heavily-owned kickers
Ryan Succop (TEN) vs. Baltimore: 49% ownership on Yahoo
Simply put, a kicker is only as good as the ability of his offense to move the ball into field goal range. Unfortunately for Succop owners, Marcus Mariota and the Titans were downright dreadful on Sunday against Baltimore. Tennessee managed just seven first downs and 106 total yards of offense against the Ravens in one of the more lopsided games of the year.
Justin Tucker (BAL) vs. Detroit: 100% ownership on Yahoo
Blowout wins and losses can often present negative game scripts for fantasy kickers, resulting in few to no field goal opportunities. The lopsided game between the Ravens and Titans created a terrible kicking situation for both players in the game. Justin Tucker owners were left with just three PATs in what appeared to be a solid matchup for the league’s best kicker.
Kicker Rankings
| Rank | ECR | Name | TEAM | Opponent | Spread | O/U | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
| 1 | 5 | Wil Lutz | NO | at BAL | 2.5 | 50.5 | 5 | 24 | 3 | 32 | 53F, 17 MPH Wind |
| 2 | 2 | Justin Tucker | BAL | vs. NO | -2.5 | 50.5 | 29 | 27 | 9 | 65 | 53F, 17 MPH Wind |
| 3 | 3 | Stephen Gostkowski | NE | at CHI | -2 | 50 | 12 | 25 | 14 | 51 | 34F, 8 MPH Wind |
| 4 | 1 | Harrison Butker | KC | vs. CIN | -6 | 58.5 | 24 | 26 | 5 | 55 | 49F, Light Wind |
| 5 | 7 | Dan Bailey | MIN | at NYJ | -3 | 47 | 9 | 14 | 10 | 33 | 52F, 14 MPH Wind |
| 6 | 8 | Greg Zuerlein | LAR | at SF | -10.5 | 53 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 42 | 82F, Light Wind |
| 7 | 9 | Matt Prater | DET | at MIA | NL | NL | 6 | 11 | 21 | 38 | 85F, 7 MPH Wind |
| 8 | 21 | Jason Myers | NYJ | vs. MIN | 3 | 47 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 28 | 52F, 14 MPH Wind |
| 9 | 4 | Adam Vinatieri | IND | vs. BUF | -7 | 47 | 27 | 23 | 17 | 67 | Dome |
| 10 | 6 | Jake Elliott | PHI | vs. CAR | -4 | 45 | 31 | 17 | 18 | 66 | 51F, 16 MPH Wind |
| 11 | 11 | Graham Gano | CAR | at PHI | 4 | 45 | 1 | 19 | 22 | 42 | 51F, 16 MPH Wind |
| 12 | 17 | Dustin Hopkins | WAS | vs. DAL | 1 | 42 | 4 | 18 | 25 | 47 | 51F, 14 MPH Wind |
| 13 | 12 | Josh Lambo | JAC | vs. HOU | -4 | 43 | 28 | 2 | 16 | 46 | 69F, 11 MPH Wind |
| 14 | 19 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | at JAC | 4 | 43 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 22 | 69F, 11 MPH Wind |
| 15 | 14 | Aldrick Rosas | NYG | at ATL | 4.5 | 54 | 30 | 3 | 24 | 57 | Dome |
| 16 | 18 | Caleb Sturgis | LAC | vs. TEN | -7 | 45 | 3 | 22 | 7 | 32 | 79F, Light Wind |
| 17 | 13 | Chandler Catanzaro | TB | vs. CLE | -3 | 48.5 | 16 | 15 | 2 | 33 | 81F, 7 MPH Wind |
| 18 | 23 | Jason Sanders | MIA | vs. DET | NL | NL | 8 | 6 | 27 | 41 | 85F, 7 MPH Wind |
| 19 | 22 | Brett Maher | DAL | at WAS | 1 | 42 | 26 | 13 | 29 | 68 | 51F, 14 MPH Wind |
| 20 | 10 | Randy Bullock | CIN | at KC | 6 | 58.5 | 23 | 31 | 23 | 77 | 49F, Light Wind |
| 21 | 24 | Robbie Gould | SF | vs. LAR | 10 | 53 | 21 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 82F, Light Wind |
| 22 | 16 | Brandon McManus | DEN | at ARI | PK | 40 | 25 | 6 | 12 | 43 | Dome |
| 23 | 15 | Cody Parkey | CHI | vs. NE | 2 | 50 | 13 | 16 | 19 | 48 | 34F, 8 MPH Wind |
| 24 | 20 | Ryan Succop | TEN | at LAC | 7 | 45 | 15 | 5 | 30 | 50 | 79F, Light Wind |
| 25 | 25 | Greg Joseph | CLE | at TB | 3 | 48.5 | 32 | 12 | 20 | 64 | 81F, 7 MPH Wind |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, if the Ravens rank second in red zone efficiency; therefore Justin Tucker has an RZ EFF score of 31. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play Week 7.
Jason Myers (NYJ) vs. Minnesota: 2% ownership on Yahoo
This pick is based on the fact that Myers is riding high with confidence after a career-best seven field goals against the Colts on Sunday. Also, Myers has the second best K Score of the week, as the Jets continue to struggle to score touchdowns in the red zone. The biggest knock against Myers this week is a negative game script based on Sam Darnold having a tough time with turnovers against the Vikes.
Dustin Hopkins (WAS) vs. Dallas: 2% ownership on Yahoo
I have Hopkins as the No. 12 ranked kicker this week based on the logic that the Redskins will find it difficult to score touchdowns against a surprisingly strong Dallas defense that boasts the fourth-best red zone defense in the league. Hopkins kicked three field goals last week against a good Panthers defense and should fair just as well this week against the Cowboys.
Prediction Review
Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Josh Lambo (JAC): @ Dallas
ECR Rank: 18 / My Rank: 8
Week 3 Finish: Kicker #27
Lambo is my first big miss of the season after posting just one extra point and no field goals against the Cowboys. The kicking metrics of the K Score pointed to a high probability of at least eight fantasy points, but the Jaguars offense was dreadful, and the Cowboys shocked everyone by putting up 40 points against the vaunted Jags defense.
Caleb Sturgis (LAC): @ Cleveland
ECR Rank: 15 / My Rank: 11
Week 3 Finish: Kicker tied for #13
The K Score metrics that I use to predict fantasy production is based on the team and the underlying matchup, not so much the kicker. For the case of Caleb Sturgis, who was a late scratch in the week after my article posted, I used the data for his fill-in, Michael Bagley. Bagley made all five of his extra point attempts, and his lone field goal try to finish with nine points. In a typical week, nine points would result in a top-12 finish.
Waiver Wired
Top Add
Jason Myers (NYJ) vs. Minnesota 2% ownership on Yahoo
Some owners may worry that they are chasing points by adding Myers after his seven-field goal day last week. But the fact is Myers has another excellent kicking matchup against a Vikings defense that allows the second-fewest red zone touchdowns, and the Jets continue to be the worst red zone offense. As long as the Jets do not get blown out by Kirk Cousins and the Vikings, Myers should have another active day.
Others to Consider
- Dustin Hopkins (WAS) vs. Dallas 2% ownership on Yahoo
- Randy Bullock (CIN) @ Kansas City: 14% ownership on Yahoo
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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.