Players to Fade on FanDuel: Week 9
Welcome to another edition of Players to Fade on FanDuel for Week 9. We have six teams on bye this week. That means another 10-game main slate awaits. DFS is harder than ever these days, and we need every edge we can get. It’s necessary to not only narrow it down to the best plays but also be aware of who to avoid on a week-to-week basis. I’ll do my best each week to identify some of the players that could be lineup landmines for us on FanDuel whether overpriced or in a bad spot. Halloween is over, so don’t be scared to fade these guys. Let’s get to it!
Matt Ryan (ATL): $8,200 @ WAS
This matchup for Atlanta will be troublesome. As you’ll see…I’m avoiding a lot of Falcons this week due to the beastly play of the Skins front. They’re making it hard for opposing offenses to have much success. They’ve done a tremendous job of limiting big plays, giving up the fifth fewest yards per pass in the NFL. The matchup also sets up for Washington to run a lot and use the short pass game as an extension of the run. This can slow the pace down quite a bit. For this price, I can’t endorse Matty Ice. I’d rather spend slightly more for any of the QBs just above him. It should also be noted that the Falcons are playing just their third road game this season and they’ve been awful on the road where they’ve averaged less than 15 points per game.
Todd Gurley (LAR): $11,200 @ NO
You want to play players in this game, I get it. With a 60-point implied point total, so do I. I put Gurley in this article last week and luckily nobody came after me on Twitter. It ended up being the right call as he “only scored 30.5 points.” However, for $11,000, that’s not great. Using 18.7% of your salary on one player to only score three times his salary is not going to win tournaments. Granted, he could’ve had a bigger day if he doesn’t go down on that last run, but the Rams weren’t supposed to have the ball in that situation anyway and it was the right call and the right football move by Gurley to go down. Once again, I can’t discourage using Gurley in cash games and simply filling in your roster with this week’s value plays. But just like last week, I think there is an edge to be had in GPPs by fading him. If you leveraged the field last week by using James Conner or Joe Mixon, you probably had a good day…even if you were one of those who used a scoreless player. Again, it’s entirely possible that Gurley explodes, but he needs to get you 48 points or more to really be worth the price outside of cash games.
Tevin Coleman (ATL): $6,600 @ WAS
Back to the Atlanta players I don’t like. Coleman hasn’t been that great, averaging less than 11 points per game, even in the last four weeks when you consider the increased opportunity. Ito Smith is getting a decent portion of touches and an exclusive goalline role of late as well. With Smith taking away value and the vastly improved Washington run D, those factors play a major role in limiting the Falcons offense. I mentioned the Skins ability to limit the big pass, but they also rank sixth in average yards per rush allowed. I mentioned above that the Falcons have absolutely sputtered on the road and using road running backs on teams that are road underdogs is not smart. I’d much rather go with Nick Chubb or Phillip Lindsay at this price range.
Keenan Allen (LAC): $7,400 @ SEA
I actually like the matchup and the price isn’t bad either. The main reason Allen appears here this week is because of the expected pace of this game. I also don’t like the Chargers chances in this game if Melvin Gordon is out once again. The Seahawks threw the football 17 times last week, that’s it. 17! This has been a frustrating trend for anyone with fantasy shares of the Seattle pass game. Because of this, I dislike the opposing pass games that face Seattle as well. In addition, Seattle is currently ranked as the third DVOA pass defense holding opposing QBs and WRs to the fourth fewest yards allowed per pass in the league. These factors are all important, but the expected pace of play on this game is another red flag for DFS this week.
Tyler Lockett (WAS): $6,700 vs. LAC
And here we are on the other side of this game, the aforementioned slow offense of the Seahawks. They will run, run, run and then use play action. Last week, they had over 40 rush attempts compared to just 17 passes. That kind of play calling is not conducive to fantasy production through the Seahawks pass catchers. That said, Lockett has actually had a good year thus far. However, most of this is due to a seriously high touchdown rate (17%) by Russell Wilson. The NFL record is 9% for a full season, so I fully expect the Seahawks’ offense to come crashing down to earth from an efficiency standpoint. Therefore, I’m avoiding the Seattle receiving corps as a whole, especially Lockett, a guy that has been getting the bulk of his fantasy points on splash plays through play action. Both he and Wilson are due for major regression and I think that starts in Week 9.
Keke Coutee (HOU): $6,100 @ DEN
The Texans lost Will Fuller to a torn ACL last week and many expected Coutee’s role to expand. That may still hold true, but the more realistic scenario is that he sticks in his slot WR role with the recent addition of Demaryius Thomas via trade from Denver. I expect D.T. to occupy outside coverage along with DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins will likely occupy the double-teams and extra safety attention as well, leaving Coutee on an island against the best slot cornerback in the NFL in perennial Pro Bowler, Chris Harris. I think the Texans will focus on running the ball more against Denver who has had a run-funnel defense, having their troubles limiting opposing run games but also boasting the second-ranked DVOA pass D.
Rob Gronkowski (NE): $7,200 vs. GB
Gronk has given fantasy owners a fraction of the production they anticipated in both DFS and seasonal leagues. Ever since his Week 1 performance against Houston, he’s averaging an underwhelming 7.25 points per game. Part of this has been due to lingering injuries, but another part of it is the Patriots now having a full complement of passing targets for Tom Brady. Now that Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon are fully incorporated into the passing attack, it’s leaving crumbs for guys like Gronk, and Chris Hogan too. Yeah, remember that guy? The Patriots are always dangerous, and this game has a huge implied point total, but there is no way I’m paying over $6,000 at TE this week, let alone $7,000! When you consider Gronk is still banged up and already questionable with back and ankle injuries, this one is an easy fade for me.
Josh Dalley is a DFS correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow him on Twitter @JoshDalley72.