It was another crazy week in the National Football League, from Kareem Hunt’s dramatic (and justified) fall from grace to a number of notable injuries to key fantasy contributors. We’ll cover all that and much more this week, so let’s get to it.
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Spencer Ware is not a direct replacement for Hunt
Not many people expected Ware to step right in and be quite as good a fantasy RB as Hunt, but as the eight-ranked RB this week according to the expert consensus, there was widespread belief that Ware would at least deliver RB1 numbers in a soft matchup with Oakland. Ware did end up scoring a touchdown, so his stat line wasn’t too bad from a fantasy perspective, but both his limited usage (15 touches) and lack of efficiency (3.4 yards per carry) — not to mention reports about the Chiefs’ plans — threw cold water on the idea that Ware will approach RB1 value over the rest of the season.
CBS reported during the game that Chiefs coach Andy Reid said he plans to turn this backfield into a three-way committee between Ware, veteran backup Damien Williams, and intriguing undrafted rookie Darrel Williams. Then, after Ware’s sluggish performance, a report surfaced that Kansas City plans to sign free agent C.J. Anderson, who ran for over 1,000 yards for Denver last year, but spent most of this season standing on the sideline in Carolina before requesting (and being granted) his release. Anderson is a very similar back to Ware in terms of both size and resume.
At this point, all signs coming out of Kansas City suggest that the team does not envision Ware operating in the bell-cow role that Hunt left behind. There could still be RB2 value to be found in whoever ends up leading this backfield, but it is not a lock that Ware will be that guy. The uncertainty swirling around this backfield is going to make for some tough ranking decisions in the first week of the fantasy playoffs.
James Conner suffered a leg injury
Conner was helped off the field late in Sunday night’s loss to the Chargers after a defender rolled up on his ankle. Speculation is circling that Conner suffered a high-ankle sprain of unknown severity, but Steelers coach Mike Tomlin described the injury only as a “lower leg contusion” (aka a bruise). For his part, Conner reportedly walked around the locker room after the game without a noticeable limp and described the injury as “all good.”
It seems like Conner should be okay and if he is healthy enough to play a full complement of snaps in Week 14, he will be an elite RB1 play in a juicy matchup with Oakland. But if Conner happens to sit, rookie Jaylen Samuels has the look of a plug-and-play RB2 at worst, particularly after he stepped in and scored a touchdown against the Chargers after Conner departed. Stevan Ridley could siphon away more touches from Samuels than Samuels did from Conner, but Samuels seems pretty firmly established as the number two back. And he’ll be even more appealing in Yahoo leagues, where he has tight end eligibility.
Justin Jackson could be a viable plug-and-play next week
With Austin Ekeler struggling to get anything going on the ground against a tough Pittsburgh run defense, Chargers coach Anthony Lynn turned the keys to the backfield over to Jackson, a seventh-round rookie who had a total of seven rushing yards on the season before last week. Jackson responded with big run after big run, helping Los Angeles pull off the comeback victory. The rookie has now rushed for 120 yards on 15 carries over the last two weeks.
Melvin Gordon is reportedly expected to return from his knee injury “soon,” but with the woeful Bengals next on the schedule, it wouldn’t make much sense to rush Gordon back for Week 14. That’s doubly true when you consider that the Chargers have a huge matchup with the Chiefs lined up for the following Thursday — you’d have to think LA’s goal is to have Gordon ready for that game rather than trying to bring him back prematurely for two games in four days.
Of course, plenty of coaches have done numerous irrational things before, but as of right now it seems likely that a) Gordon won’t play in Week 14, and b) Jackson will be ahead of Ekeler on the depth chart for a beautiful matchup with the Bengals’ pitiful defense. In other words, Jackson could be a legit plug-and-play RB2 for the first week of the fantasy playoffs.
Chase Edmonds is becoming a thorn in the side of David Johnson owners
Just when DJ owners were finally starting to feel better about drafting him early in the first round, Edmonds swooped in on Sunday to vulture not one, but two red zone touchdowns. He actually scored three times, but one was reversed on replay.
In a year where the Cardinals’ offense has struggled and Johnson hasn’t always been used in the most innovative ways, touchdowns have been especially critical to his fantasy value. So it would be a huge blow to DJ’s outlook if Edmonds emerged as the short-yardage/goal-line back. That said, it is too early to conclude that is what’s happening here. These were Edmonds’ first two touchdowns of the entire season, and he does not have the size of a prototypical goal-line back.
Johnson did not have a good game against Green Bay, but he still out-touched Edmonds 21-to-seven and his role as the lead back isn’t in serious jeopardy. Still, Arizona coach Steve Wilks raved about Edmonds after the game, saying he is “pretty powerful” and runs with “a lower center of gravity,” which suggests that Edmonds could see more red zone opportunities going forward. That’s certainly not what DJ owners want to hear just as we approach the fantasy playoffs.
A.J. Green is likely done for the year
There is nothing worse in fantasy football than losing one of your star players just before the fantasy playoffs, but that looks to be the situation for Green owners after he suffered a non-contact foot injury on Sunday that is expected to end his season. Green was having a typically productive fantasy season until Week 8 when he injured his toe. He ended up missing over a month (including the bye), and then managed to catch just a single seven-yard pass in his return before going down for the season.
It is a devastating turn of events for Green and his fantasy owners, but if there’s one saving grace it’s that wide receivers are usually easier to find than running backs or tight ends. Chris Godwin, Dante Pettis, Courtland Sutton, Curtis Samuel, and Adam Humphries are some suitable fill-ins who are still available on a lot of waiver wires.
Jeff Wilson Jr. is the latest SF RB to leap onto the fantasy radar
I was a big Jerick McKinnon booster in the preseason, and while that dream died when he tore his ACL, this season has at least validated my belief that just about any running back getting work in Kyle Shanahan’s offense will have quite a bit of fantasy value. For most of the year, that running back has been Matt Breida, but Alfred Morris and Raheem Mostert also had brief cameos, and now there is a new name to know — Jeff Wilson Jr.
Breida entered Week 13 coming off back-to-back 100-yard rushing games, but his nagging ankle injury came back to bite him in pregame warmups, opening the door for Wilson to serve as the team’s lead back against Seattle. Wilson responded with 134 yards on 23 touches, much of it as a receiver out of the backfield. Wilson missed a few snaps himself due to a foot issue, but returned to the game and looked fine. With Breida’s health status always a question mark, Wilson is a logical add who could have RB2 value in the coming weeks if Breida is out.
Russell Wilson continues to throw TDs, and regression may not be coming
Wilson put up four more touchdowns on Sunday, marking the fifth time this season he has tossed at least three touchdowns while throwing for under 250 yards. The Seahawks are a run-first offense on most areas of the field, but they clearly like to throw the ball in the red zone — a pattern that has held over from last season, when Wilson tied for the league lead in pass attempts into the end zone.
Seattle’s tendency to throw at the goal line suggests that Wilson may not face the full force of touchdown regression that his low-yardage totals would suggest. And that’s delightful news if you have Wilson, Tyler Lockett, or Doug Baldwin on your fantasy team.
Chris Carson dislocated his finger, but hopefully won’t miss time
Carson exited Sunday’s game in the fourth quarter with a dislocated finger, but coach Pete Carroll says he “should be ok.” Carroll is notoriously optimistic about injuries, but this doesn’t seem like the type of ailment that should be a big deal for a running back. Carson has struggled to stay on the field this season, but has settled back in as an every-week RB2 over the last three weeks. Provided he gets the green light, he’ll be worth using next week even though he has a tough matchup with Minnesota.
Meanwhile, rookie Rashaad Penny again flashed some skill playing behind Carson and looks to have further solidified his position as the number two back over Mike Davis. Penny is a smart player to stash given Carson’s injury history and the Seahawks’ ability to run the ball.
Greg Olsen’s season is over, further weakening the tight end position
Olsen has been plagued by foot issues this season, and it was a foot injury suffered on Sunday that finally ended his season. Olsen wasn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard this season, but he did score four touchdowns in eight games after returning from his initial foot injury and played a more steady role in the offense than most tight ends across the league. Olsen’s loss means that a dreadfully thin position gets even thinner.
Olsen’s absence could also provide a bit of a boost for Carolina’s other pass catchers. Devin Funchess has traditionally been much more useful when Olsen is out, so his arrow could be pointing up provided he’s healthy enough to take advantage of the opportunity. Christian McCaffrey could also theoretically benefit with more short-to-immediate catches, but it is hard to see how he could possibly get better than he’s already been over the last month-plus. There could also be more targets to go around for D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel.
The Packers finally pulled the plug on Mike McCarthy
Green Bay’s playoff chances were already on life support entering Week 13, but a home defeat to the Cardinals put the final nail in the coffin — and did the same to McCarthy’s tenure as Packers coach. Yes, McCarthy won a Super Bowl with the Packers, but that was eight years ago, and while not all of Green Bay’s problems can be pinned on the coach, it had become increasingly clear that McCarthy was wasting what’s left of Aaron Rodgers‘ prime.
From a fantasy perspective, interim head coach Joe Philbin is a McCarthy disciple, so it’s hard to argue this move will drastically improve the fortunes of Packer skill position players over the rest of the 2018 season. Still, perhaps the simple act of changing leadership will motivate Rodgers and Co. to finish the season strong. For a team that has scored just 17 points in back-to-back games — and three times in the last five — just about any change has to be welcomed.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
