Congratulations on moving on to your league’s semifinals! The stakes are now higher than ever and all your research, effort, and tough decisions will be for nothing if you don’t survive and advance. You can no longer afford to start players in bad situations just because they were productive earlier in the year (like Adrian Peterson). Having even just one bust in your starting lineup can finish your season.

Some fantasy owners who have made it this far still don’t boast enough reliable options to effortlessly fill their lineup. Many will have to make a difficult choice or two and aim for upside by taking on some risk if they want to make it to the championship. We know it’s hard to bench a star player in a bad matchup and that it’s not easy to find the diamonds in the rough that can take you to the next round. Have no fear though, as our featured pundits are back once again in fantasy football’s penultimate week to share their takes on who you should consider starting and avoiding based on team situations and matchups, among other key factors.

How the pros dominate college bowl pools

Q1. Who is a player outside of our top 100 flex rankings that is a deep sleeper start and why do you think he has upside this week?

Randall Cobb (WR – GB) 
“Cobb scored his first touchdown since Week 1 against the Falcons last week, so we’re taking baby steps at this point. He’s now seen 11 targets in the two games since returning, turning them into 8/68/1, so it’s not massive, but it’s a step in the right direction. He will catch a break in this game as the Bears will be without Bryce Callahan, their nickel cornerback who’d been playing at a Pro Bowl level this season. Veteran Shea McManis will take his place, who’s only covered 57 targets in his nine-year career. On those targets, he’s allowed 43-of-57 passing for 576 yards and six touchdowns. That’s not very good. By comparison, Callahan has allowed 38-of-51 passing for 308 yards and one touchdown this year. Cobb can be considered a high-end WR4 who has the best matchup on the field.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

“If you are desperate, Randall Cobb deserves your consideration this week. Since coming back from injury, Cobb is second among Packers wide receivers in both targets and snap count. Sure, it isn’t an ideal matchup versus the Bears, but anytime you can snag Aaron Rodgers‘ #2 receiver off the waiver wire, it is almost a no-brainer.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Robert Foster (WR – BUF) 
“Foster is coming off a career-high seven receptions on eight targets for 104 yards last week. He’ll be at home against the Lions and should draw the easier matchup outside with Zay Jones getting more attention from the Lions secondary and Darius Slay. Foster has home run potential as he is averaging 24 yards per reception this season. If he can get another eight targets on Sunday, then look out.”
– Brad Richter (Going For 2)

John Ross (WR – CIN)
“You are perhaps depending on Jeff Driskel to reach 200+ yards to help out the situation. However, the Raiders are in Cincinnati for the first time since November 2012 where they lost to the Bengals 34-10. West Coast teams generally travel wearily to the Ohio Valley and beyond unless they are hungrier than just playing out the string. With A.J. Green out for the year, Ross is better than a dart throw and I’m talking lawn darts.”
– Richard Savill (Fantasy Six Pack)

Darren Sproles (RB – PHI) 
“Since returning from injury his usage keeps increasing, not to mention he has scored in two straight games. Now with Corey Clement being placed on IR, that only helps Sproles in this week’s matchup against the Rams. I expect to see Sproles play a big role in a game in which the Eagles will be playing from behind. He should see plenty of targets in this game and I look for him to get into the end zone as well.”
– Brandon Murchison (RotoExperts)

Isaiah McKenzie (WR – BUF) 
“Now that McKenzie has moved to the slot in place of Zay Jones, he could build on last week’s seven targets. He gets a better WR/CB matchup as well, so while Jones is shadowed by Darius “Big Play” Slay, McKenzie gets the benefit of facing Nevin Lawson. McKenzie hasn’t had a breakout game like Foster, but he could be a nice source of points in PPR leagues where a sleeper is needed.”
– Pierre Camus (RotoBaller)

Q2. On the flip side, what player inside the top 40 flex rankings is likely to disappoint fantasy owners this week?

Chris Carson (RB – SEA) 
“Carson is still the man in Seattle, as he’s averaged 18.3 touches per game over the last four weeks. His weakest performance of the bunch was against the 49ers, as he totaled 69 yards on 13 carries, but did chip in 39 yards on four receptions. Just last week, we watched the 49ers hold red-hot Phillip Lindsay to just 30 yards on 14 carries, though he did find the end zone. It’s not a matchup to target for timeshare running backs, as the 49ers have allowed 24 PPR points or less to seven of their last nine opponents. Keep in mind those are whole teams of running backs, not individuals. They haven’t allowed a running back to finish better than RB20 since way back in Week 7, so it’s going to be tough for Carson to finish as anything more than a low-end RB2 this week.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Sony Michel (RB – NE) 
“Michel has managed 63 and 57 rushing yards the last two weeks, respectively, and could disappoint again in Week 15. He gets a Steelers team that has held nine of the last 11 opponents under 100 yards rushing and we know Michel’s involvement in the passing game is limited as long as James White is around to hog the targets and vulture red zone touches (don’t forget James Develin). Game script could turn this into a pass-heavy offense for New England, similar to last year’s controversial 27-24 finish, so Michel is a risky RB2 who may need a touchdown to save his day.”
– Pierre Camus (RotoBaller)

Jarvis Landry (WR – CLE) 
“Landry has produced for fantasy owners the past two weeks, combining for 31 standard scoring fantasy points. With that said, he did it on just three receptions last week and just so happened to get in the end zone twice after going home empty-handed almost every other game this season. While another big game is entirely possible if Chris Harris Jr. is officially ruled out, Landry offers more risk than any other player in the top 40 just because he has disappointed fantasy owners much more often than not this year.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Aaron Jones (RB – GB) 
“Many owners may be excited about the increase in snaps and touches in Week 14 from Jones, but don’t fall into the trap this week. The matchup against a stout Bears defense could bring Jones back down to earth. The touches could be there yet again in Week 15, but the value that he may return will not be something to get excited about. I look for Jones to be under 80 total yards with no score here, making it a rough playoff week for his owners.”
– Brandon Murchison (RotoExperts)

Davante Adams (WR – GB) 
“Unfortunately, you probably have to hope for a trend break because most of you must start Adams. The Bears defense is at home and gives the fewest fantasy points to receivers. If you would prefer a more recent context — they have allowed the third least in the past four weeks. Either way, not great. If you add in some revenge factor for the insulting cardiac comeback of Aaron Rodgers in their season opener, you have a bunch of angry Bears with this game circled in red on the calendar.”
– Richard Savill (Fantasy Six Pack)

Julio Jones (WR – ATL) 
“Jones had one of his best games of the season last week with eight receptions for 106 yards and two scores. However, he keeps showing up on the injury report with various nagging injuries and could get a heavy dose of shutdown corner Patrick Peterson on Sunday. In a matchup against the Cardinals and Peterson two years ago, Jones was limited to four receptions for 35 yards. I’d be wary of putting too much faith for Jones to come anywhere near last week’s numbers.”
– Brad Richter (Going For 2)

Thank you to the experts for giving their sleeper starts and duds for Week 15. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter if you’re not already doing so and check out our latest podcast below for more great advice.

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