8 Way Too Early Over/Undervalued Players (2019 Fantasy Football)

Feb 5, 2019

It might not be wise to sleep on Leonard Fournette in 2019

The 2018/19 NFL season just ended, but as fantasy players, there’s always an itch that we just have to scratch. No matter how early it is to start planning for the upcoming year, it never hurts to take this past season’s outcomes and see how they’re already affecting the upcoming season’s predictions. For example, Travis Kelce is sitting as the No. 12 player overall in early consensus PPR rankings whereas based on last year’s average draft positions (ADP), no tight end was being taken earlier than the 21st pick.

Whether he or any other players are worth their early ranking is another question, one which we are posing to a group of the most accurate experts from this past year. Here’s who they believe are the most over and undervalued at this point in time.

Featured Experts
Mike Tagliere – FantasyPros
Matthew Hill – DataForce Fantasy Football
Jared Smola – Draft Sharks
Andy Holloway – The Fantasy Footballers

Q1. What one player in our early consensus rankings do you feel is the most undervalued at the moment?

Leonard Fournette (RB – JAC) 
“It’s typically hard to find a player in the top three rounds who is undervalued, but Fournette is being forgotten about way too easily. When healthy, he’s a running back who’s locked into 20 touches per game, something you cannot find anywhere outside the top-15 picks most of the time. Have injuries been a concern? Sure, but you shouldn’t bank on them. His offensive line was missing three starters by the end of the season, which is when most started developing a negative taste in their mouth for him. The team has an elite defense, will have a better quarterback under center in 2019, and the offensive line will be healthy (and maybe even upgraded in the draft). Fournette should not fall out of the second round and there’s a case to be made for him being a top-15 pick.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Tyrell Williams (WR – LAC) 
“In 2016, a year removed from signing out of Division II Western Oregon as an undrafted free agent, Williams led the San Diego Chargers in receptions and receiving yards (69/1,059/7) after Keenan Allen suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1. The combination of Allen not missing a game since his lost 2016 season and the Chargers having spent the seventh overall pick of the 2017 draft on Mike Williams has resulted in lackluster receiving totals for Tyrell Williams the past two seasons. With Tyrell Williams headed to free agency, I expect him to bounce back next season. With a largely uninspiring group of free agent wide receivers, I expect the 6’4″ wide receiver with the 4.48 speed to land somewhere where he will be given consistent starter snaps for the first time since 2016.”
– Matthew Hill (DataForce Fantasy Football)

Kerryon Johnson (RB – DET) 
“Johnson has a shot to handily beat his RB19 ranking. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry as a rookie, while ranking eighth among 61 qualified RBs in yards after contact per attempt and 13th in missed tackles forced per attempt (according to Pro Football Focus). Johnson also flashed passing-game chops with 32 receptions in 10 games. In an eight-game stretch from Week 3 to 10, he ranked 13th among RBs in PPR points. Now add run-loving OC Darrell Bevell to the equation, and Johnson could break into RB1 territory as a sophomore.”
– Jared Smola (Draft Sharks)

Sony Michel (RB – NE) 
“I believe the most undervalued right now is Michel. He’s a top-12 candidate in my book and him tucked away behind Aaron Jones at RB15 seems to low. This offense will continue to meet the needs of its aging QB, and the run/defense recipe will continue.”
– Andy Holloway (The Fantasy Footballers)

Q2. What one player in our early consensus rankings do you feel is the most overvalued at the moment?

James Conner (RB – PIT) 
“While it pains me to write this since this guy saved so many of my leagues last season, I will be fading Conner at his 14th overall ranking. His excellent 2018 season was primarily a result of being a true three-down workhorse for a high-scoring offense. Conner logged five multi-touchdown games and had 55 receptions in 13 games. However, when he was forced to miss three games at the end of the season, Jaylen Samuels played well enough in his absence to earn a significant role when Conner returned, catching seven balls in a crucial Week 17 game against Cincinnati. I am not ready to assume that Conner goes back to being an every-down back in 2019, nor am I counting on Ben Roethlisberger having a repeat of his top-three season with Antonio Brown potentially leaving, giving Conner fewer goal-line opportunities. A lot has to go right for Conner to return value on his ranking and right now there are too many questions for me to be comfortable taking him near the turn of early drafts.”
– Matthew Hill (DataForce Fantasy Football)

Allen Robinson (WR – CHI) 
“I’d say that Robinson is overvalued as the 21st receiver off the board. It was clear that Matt Nagy wants to spread the ball around the offense, as no pass-catcher saw more than 94 targets. Anthony Miller’s role is only going to grow in his second year of the offense and you don’t want to take touches away from someone like Tarik Cohen. With the Bears defense playing lights out, the pass attempts should be suppressed a bit in 2019, creating limited opportunity for someone like Robinson. He’s a rock-solid WR3 to draft, but expecting WR2 production on a weekly basis would be a mistake.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Phillip Lindsay (RB – DEN) 
“Lindsay will have trouble repeating his off-the-charts efficiency as a rookie. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry and scored nine times on 192 attempts (4.7% TD rate). Note that he didn’t fare nearly as well in blocking-independent metrics like yards after contact per attempt (51st out of 61) and missed tackles forced per attempt (43rd). With Royce Freeman still in the mix, Lindsay will have trouble paying off his RB18 ranking.”
– Jared Smola (Draft Sharks)

Zach Ertz (TE – PHI) 
“It’s hard to put Ertz in the second round. The 156 targets and record-setting reception totals are both a feather in the cap, but difficult to replicate. QB changeover once again could slow him down enough to make that second round risk a bit of a stretch.”
– Andy Holloway (The Fantasy Footballers)

Thank you to the experts for giving their early overvalued and undervalued players. For more great fantasy advice, please be sure to follow them on Twitter.

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