Understanding consensus average draft position (ADP) in your drafts can be very useful. While players rise and fall based on personal preference or distaste, ADP usually determines the general order of your draft. Even still, a player’s draft slot can be overvalued or undervalued every year.
What about players that have outperformed their ADP in every, single year in recent history yet are still being projected as lower picks? Why are they not getting the draft love they deserve? Whether this is a phenomenon in social psychology or pure fantasy bias, don’t fret as to what the reason is that they aren’t getting respected. Instead, use it to acquire some of the greatest values available before the consensus can wise up. If these trends continue, these RBs could be the surest value picks that you can obtain.
In the list below, you’ll find the list of RBs who have either outperformed their positional ADP every year in recent history and/or have an average positional finish significantly greater than their current 2019 ADP in PPR leagues. Data was pulled using PPR ADP history from FantasyData and PPR fantasy leaders from ProFootballReference. The projected finishes listed are based on my interpretation of their history of actual finishes, vacated carries available, team situation, target volume, and touchdown regression to the average.
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Tevin Coleman (SF) Current ADP: RB31; Projected Finish: RB20
Mr. Reliable is now on a new team with the 49ers and will likely split time with Jerrick McKinnon. Will that be enough to make him finish worse than RB25? Highly doubtful. Take a look at his positional ADP versus actual finish each of the past three years:
He outperforms consensus by a decent margin every year. What is happening here? It seems that just because he is a lock to split time each year or not be the featured back that we should expect less from him. His yearly consistency is astounding and he averaged 4.8 YPA while filling in for an injured Devontae Freeman last year. He can also fill a receiving role when called upon.
Another interesting note is how Coleman and former Falcons coach Kyle Shanahan are now reunited. Something must’ve clicked between the two in Atlanta for Shanahan to pursue him even with mega-contract McKinnon coming back this year. The team is forking over a lot of money to their top two backs in McKinnon and Coleman, both of which are in the top-20 highest-paid yearly contracts among all RBs, with the presumption being that they plan to use them both. That’s just fine for fantasy purposes.
Two things appear to be certain for Coleman: He will split time and he will outperform his ADP.
Tarik Cohen (CHI) Current ADP: RB25; Projected finish: RB22
Cohen has been obliterating his ADP ever since entering the league. Both his efficiency and volume of touches have increased. Now ADP is saying he regresses to his rookie form of production in 2019? That makes very little sense.
The Bears lost Jordan Howard as their early-down bruiser. They then signed Mike Davis and drafted David Montgomery to help replace him, both of which have some receiving ability. Some analysts are expecting the third-round rookie to become an every-down back and phase out Cohen’s touches. However, head coach Matt Nagy’s tendency to run RBBCs has been consistent so far.
Cohen’s role in this offense has been very clear as a receiving-down back, yet he still got 99 carries on the ground in addition to his team-leading 71 receptions. I do think he’ll take a decent step back from last year’s RB11 finish, assuming his carries and touchdowns regress, but falling all the way back down to RB28 is too much. A player can be a candidate for negative regression and still be a value for their draft position.
While he comes with a certain level of backfield uncertainty, he is the Bears’ longest-tenured back with a very defined role.
Kenyan Drake (MIA) Current ADP: RB26; Projected Finish: RB13
This one actually blows my mind. Like all others so far on this list, Drake has outperformed his yearly ADP along with finishing as the RB14 last year. With the ageless wonder Frank Gore now gone, that leaves 168 vacated touches available based on last year. Drake is the lead back and heavy candidate to absorb these along with teammate Kalen Ballage.
So how on earth did his ADP drop off six spots from last year? Drake has been known to split time, which very well could continue, but unless Ballage or someone else somehow soaks up all of these touches, Drake should see an uptick in usage.
The only valid argument I could see would be the overhaul of the offense. The Dolphins now have a new head coach and a new starting quarterback. Play philosophy will likely change to some extent, but I’m betting on Josh Rosen to maintain Drake’s targets from a PPR perspective. Both Rosen and the Dolphins targeted their RBs roughly 80 times last year. If these targets continue, who better to benefit than the top receiving RB coming out of the backfield.
Drake has great value above his ADP along with nice upside. While my RB13 prediction may be overzealous, if he is somehow still sitting on the board near his current draft spot at RB24, do yourself a favor and scoop him up.
James White (NE) Current ADP: RB27; Projected Finish: RB19
One of the riskier options on this list is White. The amount of variance he displays in his actual finish is a bit scary. Couple this with the fact that the Patriots have had three different running backs finish better than RB15 in each of the last three years (LeGarrette Blount – RB9, Dion Lewis – RB13, James White – RB7) and it’s quite difficult to predict. One interesting point is that both Blount and Lewis went on to different teams after these top performing seasons. White has the rare opportunity to repeat because he’s still with them fresh off his best season.
What he lacks in yearly consistency and age progression he made up for when he cemented his role last year. He was too effective not to use, and the Patriots took advantage of it. Looking closer, we see that Tom Brady‘s intended air yards drastically decreased last year going from 9.0 in 2017 to 7.6 in 2018. Whether that’s a result of game flow plan or more checkdowns from Brady, it really doesn’t matter. They are attempting shorter passes and White saw a huge spike as a result of that process. Now there are even more targets to go around this year with Rob Gronkowski’s retirement.
For context, falling to RB27 would’ve required a drop-off to perform at less than 60% of his total production last year. While it appears that his sky-high TD per touch rate of 6.6% and his career best usage both have regression coming, he still carries value.
Honorable Mention
Leonard Fournette (JAC) Current ADP: RB13; Projected Finish: RB9
For a player that had an awful season last year according to many — and he did, especially in YPA — I’m not convinced as far as fantasy goes. Injuries are near impossible to predict, and if you extrapolate Fournette’s PPG average across the full season, he would’ve finished at RB11. This is coming after an RB9 finish in 2017. He was able to accomplish his respectable PPG average even with multiple injuries to the offensive line and some of the worst quarterback play in the league. He also faced the third-highest rate of eight or more defenders in the box at 35%. So many factors stacked against him, yet he still produced from a fantasy perspective.
Looking to 2019, the offensive line had time to heal along with new additions in free agency and the draft. Newly acquired Nick Foles should be able to relieve at least a portion of the high-defender box rate and free up some running room.
Given his rare bell-cow role in the offense, he is destined for a top-10 RB finish if he can stay healthy.
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David Zach is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidZach16.