Last year in Week 4, Mitch Trubisky put up 43.5 fantasy points (I’m not kidding) while Russell Wilson had just 9.0. Mike Davis outscored Saquon Barkley, James Conner and Leonard Fournette…..combined! Corey Davis gave us all hope with a 31 point performance while JuJu Smith-Schuster finished outside the top 50 wideouts.
The point is that while everything you are about to read may seem crazy, this is a league where crazy things happen every week. I am merely trying to forecast which scenarios are possible in advance like last week when we hyped up Marquez Valdes-Scantling as a potential top 20 wideout.
I’ll be posting this article every Saturday, and while these are all players I feel strongly about for the week, these are not my projections by any means. Rather, a bold prediction is something that most people would say has less than 10% chance of happening, but I’ll give it two or even three times better odds. So perhaps use one of these guys in a DFS GPP or if you need help breaking a tie on a start/sit decision. By the way, here is my new weekly article called Quick Grades. It has all my start/sit recommendations in a quick-hitting format.
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#1 Kyler Murray will be the #1 QB versus Seattle
Through three weeks, Kyler is the QB10 in fantasy football despite three horrible matchups versus the Lions, Ravens and Panthers. To make the path even more difficult, his TD-rate sits under 3% which screams positive regression! You may think Seattle is another bad matchup, but their secondary is bad this year and now dealing with injuries too. The game script should lead to another pass-heavy contest for the Cardinals so don’t be surprised when he racks up the yards.
Final Prediction: 33 for 48, 386 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 8 carries, 65 yards, 1 TD
#2 James Conner will finish as a top 3 fantasy RB
Don’t stop reading yet, let me explain. Yes, Conner has struggled, but what did you expect against three of the top running defenses to open the season? They played the Patriots, Seahawks and 49ers and suddenly get a Bengals defense that was lit up for 240 yards by Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson and Matt Brieda. Fantasy owners should be licking their lips as Conner has proved he is capable of being a work-horse and should get that opportunity in a likely positive game script this week versus a terrible run defense.
Final Prediction: 17 carries, 100 yards, 2 TDs, 5 receptions, 59 yards, 1 TD
#3 Marvin Jones will go over 100 yards
Among receivers with any many targets, Jones has a higher average depth of target than everyone besides Mike Evans, Marquise Brown and Terry McLaurin. Essentially, Matthew Stafford keeps throwing bombs his way. That can lead to some huge performances as we saw last week when he cracked 100 yards versus the Eagles and I think it may happen again this week with a delicious matchup versus the Chiefs’ lackluster secondary. Not only that, but the Lions have the ideal expected game script to get them to potentially 45 pass attempts this weekend.
Final Prediction: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 106 yards, 1 TD
#4 Leonard Fournette will be a top 5 fantasy RB
I know, this one just doesn’t sit right in my mouth. He was horrible last week after doing nothing the first two weeks or even last year, really. As we know, however, the running back position in fantasy has much more to do with volume than anything. Friend of the podcast, Derek Carty pointed out that Fournette has a 90% share of the Jags carries and a 20% share of their targets. That is the very definition of a bell-cow, game-script-proof back and Fournette is the only one in football who has done both so far. The matchup in Denver this week isn’t ideal but it is much better than the Titans in Week 3, Texans in Week 2 or the inevitable blowout versus the Chiefs in Week 1.
Final Prediction: 20 carries, 124 yards, 2 TDs, 3 receptions, 22 yards
#5 Calvin Ridley will outscore Julio Jones
By no means is this the most likely scenario, but it is entirely possible and even more so this week than others. Adoree Jackson will almost certainly be spending the majority of the contest in man to man coverage versus Ridley. This works out perfectly as Jackson is abysmal in man to man coverage and all of Ridley’s biggest career games were in man to man coverage. Jackson is a tremendous athlete, but he doesn’t have the chops to hang with Ridley’s elite route-running.
Final Prediction: Ridley (7 rec, 99 yds, 2 TDs), Julio (9 rec, 93 yds)
The Other Half
#6 T.J. Hockenson will be a top 3 tight end
Final Prediction: 8 targets, 7 receptions, 85 yards, 2 TDs
#7 Marlon Mack will rush for 150 yards (positive game script should = huge volume)
Final Prediction: 26 carries, 163 yards, 2 TDs, 2 receptions, 9 yards
#8 Cleveland’s D/ST will end up top 10 versus Baltimore (Lamar Jackson has only seen awful defenses so far)
Final Prediction: 16 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 fumble, 2 interceptions, 1 TD
#9 Christian Kirk will catch a dozen passes (SEA has lousy secondary depth)
Final Prediction: 14 targets, 12 receptions, 141 yards
#10 Kenyan Drake will end up as a top 15 back (took over as clear lead back last week)
Final Prediction: 11 carries, 29 yards, 6 receptions, 59 yards, 1 TD
Thanks for reading and happy football season!
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