6 Interesting Tidbits for Week 5 (2019 Fantasy Football)
We are now a month into the NFL season and it may be depressing to note that most teams are a quarter of the way through their season. Well, it’s sad for most of us. For you Dolphins and Bengals fans, don’t worry, there are only 12 games of misery left.
Speaking of the Dolphins, this may be the only week they do not lose this season, as they have a bye week, along with the Detroit Lions. You’re likely not missing anyone from Miami that you have been counting on, hopefully, but the Lions have a few viable fantasy players that you may have to replace in your lineups. Whether you’re looking for an edge in season-long or daily fantasy this weekend, I have six interesting tidbits below that could be useful in projecting value for Week 5.
Jared Goff has been poor against pressure and on the road.
Owners of Goff are coming off a confusing week from their QB. On one hand, he turned the ball over four times to just two touchdowns, looking bad under pressure from Tampa Bay. On the other hand, Goff passed for 517 yards and totaled 23.7 fantasy points, finishing as QB4 on the week. Overall, the way to get Goff off his game in his career is to put pressure on him, which is exactly what Tampa was able to do.
This season, Goff has been pressured on 43.2 percent of his dropbacks. Seattle has been decent at getting pressure this season, putting opposing QBs under pressure on just under 38 percent of passing plays. For Goff this season, he has completed 76.7 percent of his passes with a 97.0 passer rating when there’s no pressure. When he does get pressured, his completion percentage severely drops to 45.7 percent and a 62.1 passer rating.
To add to the bad matchup, Goff has averaged just 220.5 yards in his last two games in Seattle, scoring three touchdowns to six turnovers. His home/road split since the start of last season is also concerning. Goff averages 353.7 passing yards at home to 240.5 on the road. He also has a 27/13 touchdown-interception ratio at home, compared to a negative 14/21 ratio on the road. In short, this may not be the best bounce-back spot for Goff overall.
Cooper Kupp is set up for big day against Seattle.
While Goff may struggle, it does not mean all of his pass catchers will go down with him. If Goff is under pressure, he plays worse, but it also means that there is less time for plays to develop downfield, making Goff target the shorter routes. This has been the case much of the season, and what do you know, Kupp is second in the league in receiving yards (388).
To break down Kupp’s performance further, his average depth of target is just 7.3 yards, which fits the correlation of Goff being pressured and Kupp catching almost 100 yards per game. Kupp is also second in the league in yards after the catch, with 187. Like I said previously, Seattle is pretty good at getting pressure, which has resulted in an average depth of target from their opponents being 6.3 yards, which is tied for a league-low and is very close to Kupp’s average. Seattle has also given up 577 yards after the catch, which is the fourth-highest in the league. Kupp’s usage and performance this season fits perfectly into what Seattle has given up so far.
A number of factors point to Chris Carson having a good performance on Thursday Night Football.
Okay, last tidbit from the Thursday night game, I promise. However, these three tidbits would be extremely useful in a single game DFS lineup, just sayin’. After starting the season with fumble issues and his head coach defending him, Chris Carson responded in a big way last week. He ran for 104 yards, added another 41 through the air, and he was breaking tackles left and right. If history is any indication, he is set up for another good performance on Thursday.
In 14 career home games, Carson has averaged 80.9 rushing yards and has scored 10 total touchdowns. This is much better than his road average of 65.0 rushing yards and four touchdowns in 10 games. In his only Thursday night game, Carson ran for 83 yards (4.9-yard average) and scored a touchdown. Carson has faced the Rams just once and he ran for 116 yards and added another 11 through the air. The return of Rashaad Penny is not as big of a deal as some are making it. In Week 1, Carson played 76 percent of the snaps and saw 21 touches. Penny played 27.4 percent of snaps and saw just six touches. It’s the same concept in Week 2, but Penny got hurt and it messes with the numbers a bit. In other words, Carson is the lead back for Seattle and Penny is not going to come in and change that or see a big workload in his return from injury.
Tom Brady averages 23.6 fantasy points against the Washington Redskins in his career.
The Patriots remain undefeated, but many could argue that they should have lost against the Bills in Week 4. Much of the struggles come back to Brady, who simply was off in the game. He completed just 46.1 percent of his passes for 150 yards and an interception. Some of the sports talk early this week has been asking if Brady is regressing, which is probably the last thing the Washington Redskins want to hear leading up to their matchup. Why poke the bear? Now playing with something to prove, look for Brady to come out angry against a poor Washington team.
Strangely enough, Brady’s numbers against Washington are terrific. He has averaged 23.6 fantasy points against them in his career and he has a very good chance to keep up this terrific play on Sunday. Washington is giving up relatively little resistance defensively, giving up a league-worst 0.78 catch percentage. Did you see Mitchell Trubisky look like a competent QB against them on Monday Night Football? Now replace that with an angry Brady and the Patriots offense.
Marlon Mack should have a field day against the Kansas City Chiefs behind his big offensive line.
Before we get into the matchup, Colts head coach Frank Reich said Mack was cleared to return to the game last week, but he was held out because of game flow. In other words, he should be good to go this week. The Chiefs have been absolutely atrocious against the run this season. They are giving up 4.9 yards per rush, which is the worst in the league. The defense has also allowed a first down on 30.4 percent of runs.
Last week, the Detroit Lions made it a point to run the football with Kerryon Johnson first, leading to him seeing 26 carries for 125 yards. Obviously, running the football and moving the chains helps to control the clock, which keeps Patrick Mahomes and that explosive offense off the field. The Colts should adopt the same strategy this week, especially with T.Y. Hilton and many defensive players banged up. With a more talented offensive line than the Lions, look for the Colts to have success with their running game, having a monster day, if Indianapolis can keep the game close.
Devonta Freeman should thrive in the passing game against Houston.
Freeman has had a tough start to the season on the ground, totaling just 157 yards and a 3.3-yard average. However, he has added 17 catches, including eight for 72 yards last week. The matchup with the Texans looks like another opportunity for him to thrive as a receiver. Yes, Houston has faced some terrific pass-catching RBs, but they also haven’t done anything to limit them. They have given up an average of 8.5 RB receptions per game, going for an average of 62.75 yards.
Zach Brunner is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Zach, follow him @fantasyflurry