We have a nine-game slate on the board tonight with a bunch of teams playing in back-to-back game situations. At first glimpse, this looks like a pretty tough slate, with no single game really popping off the charts and not many obvious slam-dunk value plays. This gives the most meticulous players an edge, so I am expecting a good night, let’s get to it!
Check out today’s NBA Shot from FanDuel 
Guards
Russell Westbrook (PG – HOU): $10,300 vs. Warriors
If you are not a person who cares about blowout risk, Westbrook is nearly a no-brainer. He sat in the Rockets’ last game for rest purposes and had a big-time dud in the game prior to that one as the Heat strangely blew out the Rockets. That led to a $400 price reduction. Westbrook gets a great matchup with the Warriors who are adding 16 fantasy points per game to their opponents. Huge floor/ceiling combo here, with the risk of the blowout not affecting Westbrook as much since he had that rest day on Monday. When you are spending five-figures on a single player, you really want a multiple category contributor, and Russ is one of the best in the league at racking up stats in multiple categories, nearly averaging a triple-double in his first year with the Rockets. He is a great way to start your roster.
We have a nine-game slate on the board tonight with a bunch of teams playing in back-to-back game situations. At first glimpse, this looks like a pretty tough slate, with no single game really popping off the charts and not many obvious slam-dunk value plays. This gives the most meticulous players an edge, so I am expecting a good night, let’s get to it!
Check out today’s NBA Shot from FanDuel
Guards
Russell Westbrook (PG – HOU): $10,300 vs. Warriors
If you are not a person who cares about blowout risk, Westbrook is nearly a no-brainer. He sat in the Rockets’ last game for rest purposes and had a big-time dud in the game prior to that one as the Heat strangely blew out the Rockets. That led to a $400 price reduction. Westbrook gets a great matchup with the Warriors who are adding 16 fantasy points per game to their opponents. Huge floor/ceiling combo here, with the risk of the blowout not affecting Westbrook as much since he had that rest day on Monday. When you are spending five-figures on a single player, you really want a multiple category contributor, and Russ is one of the best in the league at racking up stats in multiple categories, nearly averaging a triple-double in his first year with the Rockets. He is a great way to start your roster.
Trae Young (PG – ATL): $9,700 vs. Bulls
The sophomore phenom returned from a short injury stint and showed no signs of rust, hoisting 23 field goal attempts and dishing 13 assists in less than 30 minutes. John Collins is suspended which makes Young one of the highest usage players in the league. The matchup with the Bulls is awesome as they have added 19 fantasy points to their opponent’s total on average. Keep an eye out for news on another minutes restriction, but if Young feels like a full-go, he is an awesome play even at this elevated price.
D’Angelo Russell (SG – GSW): $9,000 @ Rockets
Probably the most important news we are waiting for is the availability of Russell. He missed their last game (as did Draymond Green, who is out again tonight), which led to massive ownerships on the Warriors. Those value plays have seen their prices skyrocket, while Russell’s price has dropped $400. In the one game Russell has played without Curry and Green, he had a massive 28% share of the Warriors field goal attempts and scored 49 Fanduel points in 33 minutes. The matchup with the Rockets is one of the best in the league, as they have been giving teams a 20 fantasy point per game boost. The Rockets are a massive favorite in this game so there is big-time blowout risk for the main guys, but Russell is still too cheap at $9,000 if he plays. If he is out, then…
Ky Bowman (PG – GSW): $6,100 @ Rockets
As I mentioned, the pricing has really caught up on these Warriors players, but the one guy I think is still too cheap if Russell is out is Bowman. In two games without Russell and Green, Bowman has played 75 minutes, shot 25 times, handed out 12 assists and grabbed 11 rebounds. He has been a 0.92 fantasy point per minute player in those games, which would give him an easy 30+ point projection if he is in line to play 35+ minutes again. Of course, if Russell plays this is a total no-fly zone.
Lou Williams (SG – LAC): $6,700 vs. Bucks
There are two great reasons to play Lou Williams tonight. One is that Kawhi Leonard will rest tonight, which opens up some extra usage for Lou (he saw his highest usage rate of the year in the first game Leonard missed with a ridiculous 41% rate). The second reason is that this is the cheapest Lou has been since the first game of the year. When Kawhi sits, Williams’ price should go up $500 or so, but in this case, it has come down $300. He is still a scoring dependent player as his highest assist total on the year has been eight, and he has gone over five just twice in seven games, and he has not had a game with more than rebounds either. However, the shots will be there and Williams has a huge ceiling at this price tag.
Forwards
T.J. Warren (SF – IND): $6,800 vs. Wizards
If you have played NBA DFS for a while, you know how frustrating and unpredictable Warren can be. You also know what kind of ceiling he has when he gets to be a high usage player in an offense. We have seen that upside the last two games from Warren as the Pacers have been without Oladipo, Sabonis, and Turner. In two games he has played 58 minutes and taken 34 shots while having a 23% usage rate. He has not been getting many peripheral stats, which solidifies this as a risky play that is best left for tournaments, but there are very few ways this game plays out that do not include Warren shooting the ball 15+ times. The Wizards matchup is also a great one as they have been adding 12 extra fantasy points to their opponent’s team totals. I think Warren should be closer to a $7,500 player with the ceiling he offers.
De’Andre Hunter (SF – ATL): $5,100 vs. Bulls
The John Collins suspension appears to be good news for Hunter’s fantasy appeal, as he came out and played 36 minutes last night. He took 13 shots, six three-pointers, and registered eight rebounds. Trae Young and Jabari Parker are likely to hog the fantasy production for the Hawks, Hunter should be out on the floor for more than enough minutes to pay off this price tag. We can easily project him for double-digit shot attempts and lots of rebounding opportunities as well. He is a lower ceiling, but strong floor play here, and I would imagine this price will be above $6,000 before too long.
JaMychal Green (PF – LAC): $4,000 vs. Bucks
The biggest beneficiary of Kawhi’s absence in that October 30th game was Green, who played a season-high 27 minutes and scored a season-high 37 fantasy points. He scored 23 points and grabbed eight rebounds in that game, and there is no reason to think he can not replicate that again tonight. It is unlikely for him to push his minutes into the thirties, but he is a steady per-minute fantasy contributor that should play 25+ minutes at $4,000 – which makes him a really strong cash play.
Jarrett Culver (SF – MIN): $3,500 @ Grizzlies
The Timberwolves may be without an actual point guard in this game as Shabazz Napier is doubtful and Jeff Teague is very questionable. That will inevitably lead to one of the highest usage spots we have seen this year going to Karl-Anthony Towns, but I also think Culver gets a substantial boost here as well. He is one of the few candidates they have to bring the ball up the floor, and is a very talented and versatile player. He played 26 and 24 minutes in the games Towns was suspended for, so he is firmly a candidate to get elevated minutes when they are shorthanded. Culver has not been a great fantasy point per minute contributor this year, but did drop in 20 real points two games ago and should be able to rack up some extra assists and shot attempts if he gets to run the point some tonight. There are not many guys below $4,000 that are stomach-able, so Culver really stands out at this point in the day.
Centers
Karl-Anthony Towns (C – MIN): $11,100 @ Grizzlies
The highest projected score on the board tonight goes to Towns, who returns from a two-game suspension and finds himself likely without a proven point guard and in a fast-paced matchup with the Grizzlies. Only three teams are playing at a faster pace than the Timberwolves, and the Grizzlies are one of them – they are second in the league behind only the Pelicans. Towns leads the league in fantasy points per minute at 1.90 for the year. He has a 29% usage rate and is $1,100 less than his highest price of the year. Now is a great time to jump on Towns, and you can feel very confident about getting a useful return on this big salary, which is exactly what you want when building lineups.
Goga Bitadze (C – IND): $5,300 vs. Wizards
Turner and Sabonis remain out tonight and Bitadze has really made the most of his elevated minutes over the last two games. His minutes spiked to 32 last night and he posted a cool 34 Fanduel points in that game. He is very much a multi-category contributor, blocking 12 shots in his last three games (76 minutes), while grabbing 24 rebounds and scoring 25 points. There is the chance that these minutes come back down closer to 20 on the back-to-back, but I think he does enough on the floor to not kill you even in the worst-case scenario. The main problem is that if you play Bitadze on Fanduel, you can not play Towns – which I would not recommend, but if you have your eye on a stud player other than Towns, Goga is a great way to save money at the center position.
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Jon Anderson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jon, check out his archive and follow him@JonPgh.
