The NFL Playoffs are here! The postseason always offers some intriguing DFS slates with so few games to pick from, and this week is no exception. Throughout the playoffs, I’ll be taking a look at projected ownership rates to offer you some fantasy analysis using our handy projected ownership tool. Let’s get started!
Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool 
Quarterback
Drew Brees is the closest to chalk in DraftKings this week. It’s a bit surprising, especially since the Vikings have been fairly stout against opposing quarterbacks this year. That said, Brees has been phenomenal this year. The only quarterback with a higher per-game fantasy average playing this weekend is Deshaun Watson, and he takes on the Bills’ even stouter defense. They give up just 13.8 DraftKings points per game (DK PPG) to the position, and while Watson has been good this year, Will Fuller’s absence would limit his upside. Watson, Tom Brady, Josh Allen, Carson Wentz, and Russell Wilson ($6,800, 10.9% projected ownership) all figure to have about the same ownership rate, and of those four, only Allen has a good matchup. The Texans have been terrible against opposing quarterbacks this year, and they give up 23.2 DK PPG to the position — that’s the second-most in the league. I’m surprised Allen isn’t closer to chalk. For the rest of these guys, the winter weather in Foxborough is enough to write off Brady, while neither Wentz nor Wilson will have their best offensive linemen and weapons on the field.
The NFL Playoffs are here! The postseason always offers some intriguing DFS slates with so few games to pick from, and this week is no exception. Throughout the playoffs, I’ll be taking a look at projected ownership rates to offer you some fantasy analysis using our handy projected ownership tool. Let’s get started!
Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Quarterback
Drew Brees is the closest to chalk in DraftKings this week. It’s a bit surprising, especially since the Vikings have been fairly stout against opposing quarterbacks this year. That said, Brees has been phenomenal this year. The only quarterback with a higher per-game fantasy average playing this weekend is Deshaun Watson, and he takes on the Bills’ even stouter defense. They give up just 13.8 DraftKings points per game (DK PPG) to the position, and while Watson has been good this year, Will Fuller’s absence would limit his upside. Watson, Tom Brady, Josh Allen, Carson Wentz, and Russell Wilson ($6,800, 10.9% projected ownership) all figure to have about the same ownership rate, and of those four, only Allen has a good matchup. The Texans have been terrible against opposing quarterbacks this year, and they give up 23.2 DK PPG to the position — that’s the second-most in the league. I’m surprised Allen isn’t closer to chalk. For the rest of these guys, the winter weather in Foxborough is enough to write off Brady, while neither Wentz nor Wilson will have their best offensive linemen and weapons on the field.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara’s struggles this season haven’t discouraged DraftKings owners from firing him up against the Vikings to the tune of 91.2%. They’re a mid-pack defense against opposing rushers, although they have had more success limiting running backs through the air than on the ground. Sure, he’s cheaper than Derrick Henry ($8,200, 13% projected ownership) and Dalvin Cook ($7,800, 8% projected ownership), but those two backs have had much better seasons, and I’m surprised to see them off this list. Henry should get a lot of carries in a snowy game against New England, and while Cook takes on the Saints’ top-six defense against opposing rushers, they’re without both Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins, which could leave some lanes open for him to exploit. James White should be owned in about half of leagues, and he’s a safe bet in what should be a messy game. He’ll have a nice floor as the beneficiary of dump-off passes from Brady. Carlos Hyde is another popular pick as the Bills have been more generous to opposing rushers than to passers. The rest of the New England backfield, Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead, round out the list. Although they may not catch as many passes as White, look for the Patriots to keep the ball on the ground during Winter Storm Henry.
Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas is a must-play this week. He is the driving force of the Saints’ offense, and he’s to lead this week’s slate in receiving. Although his $9,300 salary is a big chunk of change, you should plan on building around him this week. Next up, we’ve got Julian Edelman, and while he’s playing hurt, he’s also Tom Brady’s best receiving option left. He’s currently listed as questionable, but he’s played through an injury designation for most of 2019. The slot receiver hasn’t seen double-digit targets since Week 14, however, and betting against a near-chalk guy playing through a winter storm might be a good call. The last man standing for Philly, Greg Ward, slots in next. He’s averaged 7.5 targets and 5.25 receptions per game since Week 14, so he comes with some solid floor at just $5,200. Big-bodied speedsters A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf wrap up our list, and while Metcalf’s got a good matchup against Philly’s banged-up secondary, Brown is riding his explosive end to 2019 to a troublingly high ownership rate. Brown has earned two or fewer passes in six games this season, once as recently as Week 16, so he’s not the sure-thing people seem to think he is. I’m much more receptive to Metcalf this week, and while he comes with volume issues similar to Brown’s, he’s not going to cost you $7,400.
Tight End
Tight end is a mess this week. You can tell because the only guys projected to have double-digit ownership rates are a trio of backups. Dallas Goedert is the most appealing (and most expensive) of the three, and since Zach Ertz still hasn’t been cleared for contact, it’s safe to assume he’ll be the starter on Sunday. Carson Wentz won’t have many other options, so Goedert is a safe bet to lead the team in targets. Jacob Hollister is the most popular pick at tight end this week, and while Philly’s secondary hasn’t played well this year, they’ve held opposing tight ends to the fifth-fewest DK PPG. Hollister’s salary is kind of high for the risk you’re stomaching, especially since he hasn’t reached paydirt since Week 10, and since he’s scored fewer than seven points three times since Week 12. Irv Smith is the last double-digit guy on the board, and he’s been even worse over that span, as he’s totaled nine receptions for 50 yards and one score. Sure, he’s only $2,700, but it’s only $200 more for Dawson Knox. While Knox has struggled of late, catching only one pass in his last three games, Allen continues to look his way. He’s averaged 3.25 targets per game since Week 13, and the Bills valued him enough to hold him out for Week 17. Jordan Akins wraps up the list, and while he and Darren Fells ($3,000, 0.2% projected ownership) have combined for nine of the Texans’ receiving touchdowns this year, neither of them has scored since Week 13.
Defense
Houston and New Orleans are the two most popular picks for the weekend, and both should be owned in about 36% of lineups. Both teams are favored to win their home games, but I just can’t get excited about either of them. The Texans could easily give up a few deep passes from Josh Allen that would limit their score, while the Saints’ injuries on defense make me concerned about what Dalvin Cook can do. Sure, their offenses should help keep the ball away from the other team, but I’d look for value elsewhere. The New England/Tennessee matchup is just that value, as Winter Storm Henry will keep scoring to a minimum. The Patriots’ defense is a strong but expensive play this weekend, while the Titans’ defense ($2,400, 2% projected ownership) is a bargain-bin contrarian play that I’m confident will pay off. The Bills and the Vikings round out the list, and while neither team is favored this week, both have fielded strong defenses this year. I’m a big fan of the Bills this week, especially since Deshaun Watson probably won’t have Will Fuller to beat them with deep.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
