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Prospects to Stash in Redraft Leagues (2020 Fantasy Baseball)

by Carmen Maiorano | @carmsclubhouse | Featured Writer
Feb 11, 2020

Nico Hoerner’s ADP has stayed consistently low, despite the Cubs not signing a second baseman in free agency.

About a month ago, I crafted my top 25 prospects for redraft leagues. Another month of information has been helpful in getting to a more precise timeline of when we expect these prospects to reach the majors. This article will focus on guys that have a low likelihood of impacting your roster on Opening Day but should still be drafted (depending on league size) for the value they will provide once they arrive within the first two months of the season.

Guys like Luis Robert, Mauricio Dubon, Gavin Lux, Dustin May, Jesus Luzardo, and even A.J. Puk and Mackenzie Gore should play prominent roles on their teams from the jump, so you are drafting them to provide value immediately, not to stash.

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Nick Madrigal (2B – CWS)
Projection: 475 PA’s, 5 HR, 59 R, 42 RBI, 24 SB, .283 average
ADP: 276
ETA: Late April/ Early May

With the news that Madrigal may start from day one, he, fortunately, may not be considered a stash. His ADP has moved back ten spots since early January, which indicates that the public does not think he would open the season with the second base job. Whenever he arrives, he will bat in the bottom third of the order, but he should still score plenty of runs in a dangerous lineup. Madrigal is a great player to target in the later rounds if you are lacking average and speed, given his 70 grades (on an 80 scale) in both hit tool and speed, per Fangraphs.

Nate Pearson (SP – TOR)
Projection: 125 innings (22 starts), 9 W, 3.33 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 133 K
ADP: 362
ETA: Late April/ Early May

Similar to Madrigal, Pearson has jumped back ten spots in ADP since early January. I would have expected that ADP to go up, given that the Blue Jays rotation as constructed is well…lacking. My projection is aggressive compared to the public projections, but Eno Sarris of The Athletic mentioned recently that all Pearson has to do is let Trent Thornton, Ryan Borucki, or Matt Shoemaker pitch themselves out of the rotation for him to get a shot. If the Jays show promise early on, expect Pearson to come up sooner rather than later.

Jo Adell (OF – LAA)
Projection: 400 PA’s, 16 HR, 49 R, 50 RBI, 6 SB, .252 average
ADP: 222
ETA: Late May/ Early June

It pains me to say this, but assuming that the Joc Pederson trade goes through, Adell’s call-up likely won’t come until the Super 2 deadline. I had already baked in a delayed call-up previously, so my projection for him hasn’t changed. Once he does get to the big leagues, I’m concerned about his average (he has a similar hit tool grade to Robert) and his propensity to run (just 30 stolen bases across the minors since 2017). His ADP is much too high for my liking.

Nico Hoerner (2B/SS – CHC)
Projection: 425 PA’s, 7 HR, 50 R, 37 RBI, 6 SB, .286 average
ADP: 365
ETA: April

Hoerner’s ADP has stayed consistently low, despite the Cubs not signing a second baseman in free agency. I’m not convinced that the Cubs want Hoerner to be the opening day second baseman, but he certainly figures to provide more value than David Bote and Daniel Descalso. I am expecting him to sit in the minors for a month while they try someone else there. Once Hoerner does come up, he will probably hit in the bottom third of the order. However, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him atop the lineup before the season ends, given his Madrigal-esque bat-to-ball skills.

Tony Gonsolin (SP/RP – LAD)
Projection: 60 innings (5 starts), 4 W, 3.68 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 61 K
ADP: 421
ETA: Opening Day

Gonsolin is the truest sense of the word “stash,” in that his current projection shows he will be a reliever as a result of the stacked Dodgers’ rotation. However, the Dodgers will likely have several players miss starts and/or go on the IL, resulting in Gonsolin having a decent chance at 15-20 starts and surpassing 100 total innings. The public is souring on him, given his 90-spot drop in ADP since early January. With the news that Ross Stripling is remaining on the Dodgers (at least temporarily), I am expecting Gonsolin’s ADP to continue to fall, but could rocket back up if Stripling is traded.

Brendan Rodgers (2B/SS – COL)
Projection: 400 PA’s, 12 HR, 42 R, 50 RBI, 4 SB, .249 average
ADP: 454
ETA: April

There has been a lack of information regarding Rodgers’s rehab from a torn labrum, and the public ADP reflects that, as he has dropped 20 spots since early January. Rodgers figures to be ready for Opening Day, but it would be the most Rockies move to put him down in the minors for a few weeks before platooning him with veterans at second base. All jokes aside, Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson figure to see time at the keystone, so Rodger’s playing time will be up in the air. This will be a key Spring Training battle to monitor.

Casey Mize (SP – DET)
Projection: 60 innings (10 starts), 3 W, 3.71 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 56 K
ADP: 416
ETA: Early June

Mize mastered Double-A last year, so he should start the year in Triple-A and, if all goes well, be up shortly after the Super 2 deadline. After projecting out the rest of the Tigers’ rotation, I don’t see Mize making more than ten starts, given his injury history and the Tigers not having an incentive to push him. Mize is similar to his counterpart below but should post a better WHIP due to showing consistently better command.

Matt Manning (SP – DET)
Projection: 60 innings (10 starts), 3 W, 3.71 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 66 K
ADP: 428
ETA: Early June

Everything I just said above applies to Manning, minus the injury history. I’ve bumped up Manning’s walk rate and HR/FB% (Comerica was sneakily a hitter’s park last year) since the first round of projections, but he should still post good enough ratios and exceed a K/9 to provide value.

Dylan Carlson (OF – STL)
Projection: 450 PA’s, 18 HR, 54 R, 61 RBI, 6 SB, .246 average
ADP: 300
ETA: Late April/Early May

Carlson has seen a big jump in ADP since early January (two rounds), which signifies that the public thinks he should win a corner outfield job in St. Louis sooner rather than later. I agree and think that he will outplay at least Dexter Fowler or Tyler O’Neill (if O’Neill isn’t traded by then), and have bumped up his plate appearances by 150 accordingly.

Carter Kieboom (SS – WAS)
Projection: 425 PA’s, 16 HR, 50 R, 53 RBI, 5 SB, .246 average
ADP: 286
ETA: Opening Day

Kieboom remains a stash, given the Nationals’ signings of Howie Kendrick, Starlin Castro, and Asdrubal Cabrera. I think his ADP is too slightly too high, given we aren’t sure what the Nationals will do with him, and is guaranteed to hit in the bottom third of the order. A trade certainly remains a possibility.

Michael Kopech (SP – CWS)
Projection: 100 innings (20 starts), 6 W, 4.17 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 122 K
ADP: 275
Projection: May

Kopech will be brought back slowly, given his Tommy John surgery causing him to miss all of 2019. Once he does arrive, he will likely bump Gio Gonzalez or Reynaldo Lopez from the rotation and should post a K/9 above 10, but figures to struggle with his command. His ADP is a bit too early for my liking, going in front of even Mackenzie Gore.

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Carmen Maiorano is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Carmen, check out his archive and personal fantasy blog and follow him @cmaiorano3.