Tracking dramatic shifts in pricing trends from FanDuel DFS gives us a glimpse of players on the rise or fading away. These extreme shifts mean the market is moving in ways that naturally create more room for error in the price point. It’s our job to find out if there’s an edge to be had and exploit it or if it is indeed fair value. Below are some of the players that have moved the most from last week in pricing and my take on them as a possible play or fade this week.

This article had a nice hit rate on fades and plays last week relative to changed cost including buying on some dips, so let’s see if we can keep the momentum rolling.

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Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert (LAC) vs CAR $7,200 (+$1,100)
Herbert looked poised in his rookie debut considering the circumstances, as he himself only found out that he was starting 10 minutes before kickoff against the reigning Super Bowl champs. The Panthers’ defense is doing surprisingly well against quarterbacks so far – third-fewest fantasy points allowed – but that’s only because they’re allowing the easiest path to success for running backs – most points allowed. Being the 16th priced QB is seemingly cheap for a player who just put up 23 FanDuel points against the Chiefs, and who’s team has a 25.5 Vegas implied total this week. Tread lightly, however, as coach Lynn said Tyrod is the starter as long as he’s healthy. I’m not buying the talk but it is definitely a situation to monitor.

Tom Brady (TB) at DEN $7,300 (-$300)
The Buccaneers have hit the OVER on their implied team total in two straight games and look to make it three in a row on Sunday. Chris Godwin has already been cleared to play and the Broncos will be starting their backup quarterback Jeff Driskel after Drew Lock went down to injury. The results could mean shorter fields and more scoring opportunities for the Bucs, and Brady with a full arsenal at a discounted price sounds enticing.

Running Backs

Miles Sanders (PHI) at HOU $7,400 (+$600)
The Eagles have a 26.5 implied team total against a Bengals’ defense that allows the second-most points to the running back position. Carson Wentz has been making poor decisions and the Eagles desperately need a win, so look for them to lean heavy on the run game and low aDOT passes, Sanders being the main beneficiary.

Mike Davis (CAR) at LAC $6,000 (+$1,500)
The fantasy playing field saw a stupid amount of injuries this weekend, and McCaffrey was one of the victims. As a result, Davis will presumably take over but it’s fair to be expecting a timeshare in this one. Worse yet, they face a defense that allowed the third-fewest points to running backs including an average of 10 points when facing both Joe Mixon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. While he may seem like a cheap option, this is looking like a trap unless they turn him into their every-down back.

Wide Receivers

Calvin Ridley (ATL) vs CHI $8,000 (+$900)
Coming off two of the best possible game script and point total projected games, the Falcons now face their toughest defense thus far in the Bears. At the same time, Ridley’s price is peaking. If Ridley’s payout was a stock price chart, his now second-highest cost among all receivers is catching up with his peak performances. As such, there is little upside left to chase and very possible disappointment. While it’s normally a bad idea to fade the highest performer at their position, I believe the price-to-payoff trend lines are crossing in a tough matchup that makes him a fade for me, meaning I don’t believe he scores as an elite receiver range this week as he’s projected. 

Marvin Jones Jr. (DET) at ARI $6,400 (-$300)
Jones has been relatively disappointing in the absence of Golladay, and his price continues to be hit as a result. At first glance, FanDuel tells us the Cardinals have been the toughest against wide receiver production; however, looking closer we can see they faced the injury rattled 49ers corps and then got torched by McLaurin in week 2. The lack of depth and options of opposing teams are making them appear better than reality. The Lions are six-point underdogs in a 54.5 game total for a pass-heavy script, and I think Jones pays off at price.

Tight End

Jonnu Smith (TEN) $5,600 at MIN (+$700)
Smith is the highest scoring tight end through two weeks and is priced as the TE9. He gets a Vikings secondary in a complete downward spiral but the safety tandem of Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris could bring trouble. Even still, he is looking like a bargain considering the price as Tannehill’s favorite option. Be wary if AJ Brown returns, however, as he would likely lose target share in his direction. 

Thanks for reading and stay golden! If you like what you learned, follow me @DavidZach16 for more interesting stats and tidbits throughout the year.

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David Zach is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidZach16.