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FantasyPros Over/Under Advice: Week 5

FantasyPros Over/Under Advice: Week 5

I’m going to save the cheeky introduction for another week.

Following the actions of the Tennessee Titans reported on Wednesday afternoon, I’m going to take a few moments to discuss accountability. With the entire world still navigating this new normal surrounding COVID-19, what in the actual you-know-what are we doing allowing the Titans to infiltrate a local high school in Nashville during a rampant COVID-19 outbreak amongst the franchise?

As a high school football coach, I can’t even begin to describe the fear and anger I felt after I saw this report. On a micro/macro level, who the heck are the Titans to jeopardize the high school football season for those seniors at that high school, let alone putting the immediate health of that entire school at risk?

I’m absolutely disgusted by this.

The NFL needs to take swift and serious action on the matter. A Week 5 forfeit, eight-figure fine, and stripping of multiple draft picks sounds like a good start to me.

Below are my picks for Week 5 of the FantasyPros Over/Under Challenge sponsored by BetMGM. Read more about the contest here.

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Dak Prescott (QB – DAL) vs. NYG – Over 23.5
This is the easiest pick of the week. With Prescott setting an NFL record for passing yards through the first four weeks of an NFL season, this is a fairly minimal ask out of Kellen Moore’s signal-caller. The Dallas defense ranks dead last in points allowed, averaging 36.5 points given up per week. Week 5 will be Mike Nolan’s last as the defensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys, as Prescott has no choice but to powerbomb the over in this one.

Carson Wentz (QB – PHI) @ PIT – Over 15.0
I’m not entirely sure why the Over/Under Challenge is so fascinated with the going-nowhere-fast Philadelphia Eagles this year, as at least one Eagle has been included every week in the series. But I digress. Despite Wentz’s early-season struggles, he has averaged 22.96 fantasy points over the past two weeks. As long as he doesn’t sustain an injury against the undefeated Steelers, he’ll sleepwalk his way to 15 points in Week 5.

Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND) @ CLE – Under 14.4
Taylor has yet to live up to the fantasy hype to start his rookie campaign, especially when you consider that running back compadre Marlon Mack was lost for the year with an ACL injury during Week 1. As the overwhelming leader in the Colts’ running back clubhouse, Taylor has failed to churn out satisfactory fantasy production. With Cleveland off to a 3-1 start and ranking fifth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, Taylor’s lukewarm rookie season continues. He’ll hit double digits, but anyone rostering Taylor will be left wanting more out of the prized first-year running back.

Joe Mixon (RB – CIN) @ BAL – Under 14.2
For the second week in a row, Mixon finds himself on the FantasyPros Over/Under Challenge. Although I was dead wrong on his Week 4 outlook, my confidence hasn’t wavered regarding Mixon’s ability to have lightning strike twice. Going up against a Baltimore defense, which still has a lot to prove in the court of public opinion following a Week 3 beatdown on Monday Night Football courtesy of the world champion Kansas City Chiefs, Mixon reverts to his undesirable fantasy ways in Week 5.

Kenyan Drake (RB – ARI) @ NYJ – Over 13.2
Conversely, Kliff Kingsbury’s RB1 gets back on the good graces of fantasy managers everywhere as Arizona visits the Meadowlands to take on the worst football team in the National Football League. After falling flat on their faces over the past two weeks, this is a quintessential get-right matchup for the Cardinals. Kyler Murray and all of his toys show out inside Met Life Stadium on Sunday.

Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL) vs CAR – Over 15.7
Time for the overwhelmingly vast majority of the fantasy community to eat some serious crow (myself included). After being dubbed The Worst Defense in America for much of the past year, Carolina Panthers defensive coordinator Phil Snow has his bunch ranked in the top 10 in both passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed. Despite their success in the first quarter of the 2020 season, my money is on Teddy Bridgewater, Matt Rhule, and Carolina’s offense to pick apart Atlanta’s defense, forcing Matt Ryan and the Falcons into their customary garbage time. And we all know by now that there’s no single greater beneficiary of Falcons Garbage Time more than a healthy Calvin Ridley. The only obstacle that presents itself for Ridley accomplishing the over this week is his existing bout with knee and thigh injuries.

Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN) @ SEA – Over 11.7
If Prescott and the Over is the easiest pick of Week 5, Jefferson and the Over on Sunday Night Football against Seattle is a close second. The Minnesota Vikings have officially unleashed their rookie wide receiver, whom they selected in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Since inserted into the Vikings’ starting lineup over the past two games, Jefferson has compiled 14 targets, 11 receptions, 278 yards, and one touchdown. That purple pup is good. Seattle ranks dead last in total yards and passing yards given up (“Do your job, Pete Carroll” – Bill Belichick), forcing our longtime pal Kirk Cousins to let it rip for the primetime national TV audience. Jefferson introduces himself, and in a big way, to the football world on Sunday night.

D.J. Moore (WR – CAR) @ ATL – Over 12.8
It’s only a matter of time before Moore gets going in Rhule and Joe Brady’s offense. Having gone the first four weeks without scoring a single touchdown, I’m confident Moore will find the end zone in a game that absolutely screams shootout. Carolina’s surprising early-season start carries on, as the Panthers pick up their third consecutive win in impressive fashion without All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey.

Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR – JAC) @ HOU – Over 9.0
Don’t fool yourself now, the Eagles and Jets aren’t the only franchises going nowhere fast here in our beloved 2020 (too soon?). After telling former head coach and general manager Bill O’Brien to take a hike following their Week 4 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, the Houston Texans have thrown their cowboy hat in the ring for The League’s Worst Team discussion. With that said, Shenault should have no problem eclipsing this projection, going up against a Texans secondary that just surrendered over 100 receiving yards to both Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Don’t worry Texans fans, at least you’ll get a top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft! Oh wait…

Tyler Higbee (TE – LAR) @ WAS – Over 8.5
There’s nothing wrong with being a touchdown-dependent tight end – as long as you’re playing in Sean McVay’s offense, I suppose. While it’s still a bit farfetched to expect Higbee to approach his hat trick from Week 2 against the Eagles, I’m going to say Higbee crosses pay dirt in Week 5, as the Rams move to 4-1 after having their way with the Football Team.

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Rob Searles is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Rob, follow him @RobBob17.

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