When looking at an NFL DFS slate, I usually begin with these two steps:
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- Examining Implied Team Totals and Game Over/Unders
- Identifying Teams to Target and Possible Stacks
Each week, I will share my findings with you after I have completed these first two steps. Throughout this piece, I will reference implied team totals, winning probabilities, and game over/unders that are acquired from our consensus odds collected over at BettingPros.com.
Games/Teams to Target
- Cleveland @ Dallas (Over/Under 56.0)
- Dallas Team Total: 30.25
- Cleveland Team Total: 25.75
- Minnesota @ Houston (Over/Under 54.5)
- Houston Team Total: 29.5
- Minnesota Team Total: 25.0
- New Orleans @ Detroit (Over/Under 54.0)
- New Orleans Team Total: 29.0
- Detroit Team Total: 25.0
- Seattle @ Miami (Over/Under 53.0)
- Seattle Team Total: 29.75
- Miami Team Total: 23.25
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DFS Stacks to Target
All salaries are from FanDuel, but these stacks can be utilized on DraftKings as well.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB – MIA): $7,100 / DeVante Parker (WR – MIA): $6,500
We saw FitzMagic on display last Thursday night as the journeyman QB completed 18 of 20 passes against a soft Jaguars defense. The 37-year-old QB has been excellent after struggling against New England in Week 1. He added seven carries for 38 yards and a rushing TD on Thursday to go along with his two passing TDs. Though he only threw for 160 yards in that matchup, we saw the Harvard man top 300 yards against Buffalo in Week Two when the Dolphins found themselves in a more negative game script. I expect the Dolphins to be forced to throw in order to keep up with the high-flying Seattle offense that is most definitely letting Russ cook.
Going to the air will not be the worst thing for the Dolphins. Seattle enters Week Four as the second-best matchup for fantasy QBs and the best matchup for fantasy WRs. Late breakout WR DeVante Parker should benefit the most from the favorable matchup. It was encouraging to see Parker suit up on a short week after dealing with a hamstring injury earlier in the season. Coming off ten days rest, Parker should be looking to build on last Thursday’s performance where he hauled in all five of his targets for 69 receiving yards. Though it is somewhat of a budget stack, a 25% target share and a 13.8 ADOT is too good to pass up in this matchup. Feel free to have plenty of lineups that include players on the Seattle side like QB Russell Wilson, WR Tyler Lockett, and WR D.K. Metcalf.
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN): $7,400 / Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN): $6,000
There was a lot of pressure on the first overall pick to turn around a Bengals franchise that has been disappointing for the better part of the last decade. While it has not transferred to a win yet, Joe Burrow has been very impressive. He has thrown five TDs and just one interception in his three games, all of which were against top ten defenses against the QB position in the Eagles, Browns, and Chargers. Let’s just say that Burrow’s Week Four matchup is more… favorable. The Jaguars allowed 363 passing yards to Colts QB Philip Rivers and 239 passing yards and four scores to Titans QB Ryan Tannehill before getting dominated on Thursday night against Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Joe Burrow will be at home for this matchup, and he will look to connect with his favorite target through three games: WR Tyler Boyd. The fifth-year WR caught 10 of his 13 targets in the matchup against Philadelphia in Week Three. Boyd has 197 receiving yards over his last two games, and he should have an easier time connecting with his rookie QB against a weak Jaguars secondary. Coming off ten days rest, Jaguars WR D.J. Chark should be able to suit up for this game, which is good news for a Jacksonville offense that looked out of sorts on Thursday night. If QB Gardner Minshew is able to put up points himself against a bad Bengals defense, then this game has shootout potential with available stacks on both sides.
Darrell Henderson Jr. (RB – LAR): $6,400 / Rams Defense (DEF – LAR): $4,800
An underrated stack is aRB with his team defense. We cashed in last week with a stack of RB Jonathan Taylor and the Colts Defense. This week, I’m looking to the Rams who are 13 points home favorites against the New York Giants. Henderson Jr. was the Rams’ third round pick in the 2019 NFL draft. One of my favorite RB prospects at the time, the Memphis product was able to showcase his ability on Sunday as he tallied 114 yards on 20 carries despite the Rams trailing for most of the game at Buffalo. With rookie RB Cam Akers looking questionable for Week Four, Henderson Jr. could be in for another large workload in a contest that expects the Rams to have a positive game script throughout.
The Rams defense has gone against strong offenses in the Bills and Cowboys, but they were also able to get to those QBs four and three times respectively. The Rams have also forced five turnovers in their three games to this point. Giants QB Daniel Jones has been prone to turnovers in his young career, and he already has four interceptions and two fumbles lost in 2020. I expect the Rams to get out to an early lead, pound the ball with Henderson Jr., and be able to rush freely at Daniel Jones while the Giants attempt to battle back from the deficit.
Baker Mayfield (QB – CLE): $7,000 / Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – CLE): $6,600
It does not seem too long ago when Baker Mayfield was being drafted as a top ten fantasy QB in the summer of 2019. While the Browns passing offense has been a disappointment since then, I see potential value in the charismatic signal-caller for this Sunday slate. Priced below players like Bears QB Nick Foles, Mayfield finds himself in a matchup against one of the softest defenses when it comes to surrendering fantasy points to the QB position. The Cowboys allowed 275 passing yards to Jared Goff, 273 passing yards to Matt Ryan, and 315 passing yards to Russell Wilson. Is Baker Mayfield a worse NFL QB out of those three? Probably, yes. However, he is more than capable of picking apart a poor pass defense, as we saw him do on a Thursday night in Week Two against the Bengals where he completed 70% of his passes and tossed two touchdowns.
As 4.5 point underdogs, the Browns will likely not be able to use RB Nick Chubb as often as they would like. Baker Mayfield should be forced into more passing volume, which is good news for Odell Beckham Jr. The former Giants WR has a respectable 22 targets through the first three weeks of the season, and a player with his talent should be able to exploit a weak Dallas secondary. A big game is on the horizon for Odell Beckham Jr., and I think that this is the week it happens. The Cowboys should have no trouble putting up points themselves in this game that features the highest over/under on the slate at 56 points. With the Cowboys as home favorites, I like rostering RB Ezekiel Elliott in lineups that include Baker Mayfield and/or Odell Beckham Jr.
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Shane Bryant is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Shane, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @ShaneBryant31.
