When looking at an NFL DFS slate, I usually begin with these two steps:
- Examining Implied Team Totals and Game Over/Unders
- Identifying Teams to Target and Possible Stacks
Each week, I will share my findings with you after I have completed these first two steps. Throughout this piece, I will reference implied team totals, winning probabilities, and game over/unders that are acquired from our consensus odds collected over at BettingPros.com.
Games/Teams to Target
- Dallas @ Seattle (Over/Under 55.5)
- Seattle Team Total: 30.25
- Dallas Team Total: 25.25
- Detroit @ Arizona (Over/Under 54.5)
- Arizona Team Total: 30.0
- Detroit Team Total: 24.5
- Chicago @ Atlanta (Over/Under 47.5)
- Atlanta Team Total: 25.5
- Chicago Team Total: 22.0
- Las Vegas @ New England (Over/Under 47.5)
- New England Team Total: 26.75
- Las Vegas Team Total: 20.75
DFS Stacks to Target
All salaries are from FanDuel, but these stacks can be utilized on DraftKings as well.
Kyler Murray (QB – ARI): $8,400 / DeAndre Hopkins (WR – ARI):$8,500
Many teams across the NFL have dealt with injuries, but the Arizona Cardinals offense has managed to stay healthy and comes into Week 3 with the second-highest implied total on the slate. Kliff Kingsbury’s spread system has been terrific for Kyler Murray’s fantasy value. The second-year QB enters Week 3 with 516 passing yards, 158 rushing yards, and five total TDs. Similar to Lamar Jackson in 2019, the Arizona QB could be the Fantasy MVP at the QB position if he is able to continue being a productive dual-threat.
Kyler Murray’s number one target has proven to be WR DeAndre Hopkins. Through two weeks, Hopkins has hauled in 22 of 25 targets for 219 receiving yards and one score. Arizona will be at home in good weather against a Detroit secondary that has surrendered 240 passing yards and 2 TDs to Aaron Rodgers and 242 passing yards and 3 TDs to Mitchell Trubisky. In a game with an over/under of 54.5, I think players like RB Kenyan Drake ($6,500), WR Kenny Golladay ($7,500), and TE T.J. Hockenson ($5,400) are in play as well. Drake continues to see a lot of volume in a high-pace offense. The Lions will need to turn to the air to keep pace with Arizona.
Dak Prescott (QB – DAL):$8,500 / CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL): $5,600
After their incredible comeback at home against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, the Cowboys appear to be in for another high-scoring affair this Sunday. They will travel to Seattle in a game that features the highest over/under of the main slate at 55.5 points. Against the Falcons this past Sunday, Dak completed 34 of 47 passes on his way to 450 passing yards. Though he did not rack up a lot of rushing yardage, Dak found the end zone three times with his legs in the game. He gets to face a Seattle defense that gave up 450 passing yards to Matt Ryan in Week 1, 397 passing yards to Cam Newton in week 2, and also allowed Newton to score two rushing TDs.
Two Cowboys receivers hit the century mark on Sunday versus Atlanta: WR Amari Cooper and rookie WR CeeDee Lamb. In just his second NFL game, Lamb led all Cowboys with 106 receiving yards as he hauled in six of nine targets. He will faceoff against a Seattle defense that is failing to generate pressure on the QB and has surrendered the most fantasy points to opposing WRs as a result. Dak could be stacked with any of his pass-catchers, but the rookie carries plenty of upside while providing salary relief. In a game that should feature plenty of points, it is perfectly reasonable to bring it back with WR D.K. Metcalf ($6,500) or WR Tyler Lockett ($6,800) of the Seahawks.
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC): $7,200 / Keenan Allen (WR – LAC): $7,100
The game only has an Over/Under of 44.0 points, but I love the prospect of utilizing the rookie QB and the veteran WR as a contrarian stack in a tournament. Herbert was sprung into action after Tyrod Taylor suffered a scary pre-game injury. After not receiving the majority of the first-team reps during the practice week, the sixth overall pick out of Oregon was impressive in his first NFL start. He completed 66% of his passes for 311 passing yards and also added 18 rushing yards and a rushing TD as well. Herbert did so against a Kansas City defense that held Deshaun Watson to 253 passing yards in a Texans loss in Week 1.
The rookie QB showed instant chemistry with veteran WR Keenan Allen. Despite Herbert not being a large part of the gameplan, the rookie QB was able to complete seven of his ten passes towards the excellent route runner. Allen finished with 96 receiving yards, and the Los Angeles offense had life and excitement that was clearly lacking in the team’s Week 1 contest. Though Anthony Lynn has made it clear that Tyrod Taylor will be the starting QB when healthy, multiple medical experts have expressed doubts about Taylor’s ability to play in Week 3. The Panthers allowed over 100 yards and a score to Mike Evans in Week 2, and Keenan Allen could have similar success against their weak secondary. If you want to bring it back with a Panther in this game, WR Robby Anderson ($6,100) is my top choice, as he is fourth in the NFL in receiving yards with 223 yards. A similar burner-type WR in Tyreek Hill was able to beat the Chargers defense for five catches, 99 receiving yards, and a TD in Week 2.
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND): $6,700 / Colts Defense (DEF – IND): $4,800
Following the unfortunate achilles injury to Marlon Mack in Week 1, fantasy owners were excited about the potential workload for rookie RB Jonathan Taylor. The second-round pick out of Wisconsin was a workhorse in Week 2, as he carried the ball 26 times and hauled in both of his targets on his way to 110 total yards and a rushing TD. The Colts are 11 point home favorites in this contest against a Jets team that has been gashed on the ground so far. Raheem Mostert tallied 92 rushing yards in Week 2 before leaving with injury, and Jerick McKinnon posted 77 rushing yards of his own in the San Francisco victory. Somehow, Jonathan Taylor is only priced at $6,700 on FanDuel, which is $2,300 cheaper than Ezekiel Elliott and at least a $1500 discount compared to Dalvin Cook, Josh Jacobs, and Derrick Henry. Taylor outscored all four of those backs this past week, and he has arguably the best RB matchup of the main slate on Sunday.
For those of you who started Kirk Cousins in fantasy or DFS this past week, you know firsthand the type of hurt that the Colts defense put on him. The Vikings QB completed 11 of 26 pass attempts for 113 yards while also throwing three interceptions. Cousins was also sacked three times. After being shocked in Week 1 on the road at the Jaguars, the Colts were able to regroup back at home in Week 2 and dominated a weak Vikings offensive line. I expect the home team to be able to do the same against a Jets offense that is already struggling and could be without WR weapons Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman.
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