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StatHero NFL Lineup Advice: Week 11

by Isaiah Sirois | @is_sirois | Featured Writer
Nov 21, 2020

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Aggressive Lineup: Kansas City Chiefs

I target the highest-scoring game on the slate with my aggressive lineups each week, and this week, the honor goes to the tilt between the Chiefs and Raiders. Sportsbooks project this one for 57 points, far and away the most on the slate, and the Chiefs are absolutely the team to target here. Why? The Chiefs are coming off a bye, and head coach Andy Reid has gone 18-3 after them in the regular season. In the last two seasons, his Chiefs have scored exactly 40 points after their bye weeks — and both games also came against the Raiders. Oh, and the Raiders’ starting defense spent most of the week on the COVID-19/reserve list.

MVP: Travis Kelce
In StatHero’s TE-Premium scoring, Kelce should almost always be your MVP if you’re targeting the Chiefs. He’ll score three points per reception in this slot, and since he averages 6.4 catches per game, that’s good for a floor of 19.2 points before yardage and touchdowns. Kelce caught eight passes for 108 yards and a touchdown in Kansas City’s last game against the Raiders, which bodes well for him, but his track record of demolishing the Raiders is longer than that. In his five Raiders matchups with Patrick Mahomes under center, Kelce has averaged 7.4 catches, 107 receiving yards, and 0.8 touchdowns per game.

QB: Patrick Mahomes

FLEX A: Tyreek Hill
You can’t target the Chiefs without including Tyreek Hill. Not only is he a prime beneficiary of StatHero’s long-distance touchdown bonuses, but he has also become a higher-volume weapon of late. Hill has averaged 11.3 targets per game over his last three appearances, a big jump from the 6.3 he averaged before then. He’ll look to continue his hot streak this week against the Raiders, who he only caught three passes for 78 yards against in Week 5 (that said, he still finished as a fantasy-viable weapon because he ran three times for 15 yards and a touchdown).

FLEX B: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
You have to start a team’s lead rusher in StatHero, as there’s always a risk for them to end up getting a short-yardage touchdown. Edwards-Helaire hasn’t played very well over the last three weeks, as he’s averaging just 8.6 touches, 42.7 yards, and 0.6 touchdowns per game. That said, he has 12 of Kansas City’s rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line (54.5%) and seven inside the five-yard line (63.6%); teammate Le’Veon Bell has just one rush inside the 10-yard line all season. Edwards-Helaire also has nine targets inside the 10-yard line (10.7%), the fourth-most on the team, behind only Kelce (28.6%), Hill (25%), and the next man up, Watkins (17.9%).

FLEX C: Sammy Watkins / Mecole Hardman
If Watkins plays, he’s a must-start in your StatHero lineup. The veteran receiver is a fantastic floor option who should be good for five targets per game, which is more than anyone behind him on the depth chart. His rock-solid red-zone target share (17.9%) is even more impressive when you consider that he hasn’t played since Week 5 — teammates Demarcus Robinson (7.1%) and Mecole Hardman (3.6%) haven’t surpassed him despite not missing any time. If Watkins doesn’t play, Hardman is worth starting for his long-distance upside. He caught a 49-yard score in Week 3 and a 30-yard score in Week 8, and he’s a better option than Robinson at this slot.

Contrarian Lineup: Tennessee Titans

There is a pretty big gap between the KC/LV game and the next highest-scoring matchup. It’s technically the GB/IND game, which has a total of 51.5, but Green Bay is too aggressive for this slot, and Indianapolis spreads the ball around far too much. So I’ll target the BAL/TEN game, as its projected total (49.5) isn’t bad, and I think that we could see even more points than sportsbooks expect. The Ravens and Titans are both without some key pieces on defense, and this could turn into a shootout for an AFC Wildcard spot.

MVP: Derrick Henry
The Ravens have been average against the run this season. They’ve only given up 86 rushing yards per game to the position, the 11th-fewest in the league, and they rank 14th-best in adjusted line yards. Unfortunately, they won’t have their nose tackle, Brandon Williams, this week. The last time the Ravens played without Williams (Week 6), they gave up 118 yards to Miles Sanders on nine attempts, including a 74-yard score. Meanwhile, Henry leads the league in total rushes (201) and rushes per game (22.3). The Titans should feature him against the vulnerable Ravens, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him rip off a handful of explosive plays — the Titans already have the seventh-best explosive run rate (13%) as well.

QB: Ryan Tannehill

FLEX A: A.J. Brown
With Adam Humphries sidelined, the Titans really only have three playmakers of note, which works out perfectly for our StatHero lineup. Brown is the first of these guys, and he benefits a ton from StatHero’s long-distance scoring bonuses. Of his six touchdowns on the year, three would’ve triggered bonus points — he has scored from 16, 73, and 40 yards deep this season. While Brown’s 7.4 targets and 4.6 catches per game leave something to be desired, he can pop off for tons of yards on a handful of catches, as he also averages 68.3 receiving yards per game.

FLEX B: Corey Davis
Fun fact: Davis leads the Titans in receptions (34). Though Brown leads the team in targets (52), Davis is just four behind him, and he has a far better catch rate (70.8%) than Brown (61.5%). Sure, Davis has a bad reputation in fantasy football — he’s notorious for letting his managers down after finally building up their trust — but I don’t expect him to bust as he did in Week 9. Many things went wrong for him back then, as the Titans only needed to attempt 21 passes since they entered the fourth quarter with a 17-0 lead, and they benefited from a Desmond King punt return touchdown. If we ignore that outlier performance, Davis has seen at least five targets and three receptions each week, and he’s a safe bet not to bust in this matchup.

FLEX C: Jonnu Smith
Yes, the Titans have featured other tight ends alongside Smith. Anthony Firkser exploded against the Texans in Week 6, but Smith still averages more targets and receptions per game than him. More importantly, Smith has six touchdowns to Firkser’s one. Smith has earned 11 targets inside the 20-yard line (29.7% of the team share), which ranks him first. He has also gotten six inside the 10-yard line (31.6%). The only players to rival Smith’s usage inside the 10-yard line are Brown (26.3%), Davis (10.5%), and MyCole Pruitt (10.5), most of whom are already featured in this lineup.

Check out StatHero’s $5,000 Hail Mary Survivor Pool >>


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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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