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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy: Monday (12/28)

Dec 28, 2020

After a few monster slates over the weekend, we’re looking at a modest five-game ledger here. While it does limit the player pool, it makes things easier to dissect. Back-to-backs are worth keeping an eye on, with the Lakers and Nets both playing the second half of a B2B set. That means veterans like Anthony Davis, LeBron James, or Kevin Durant could be sitting, something that needs to be monitored prior to submitting lineups.

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel.

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Value Plays: Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Trae Young (ATL) vs. DET $9,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Ja Morant (MEM) at BRK $8,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Mike Conley (UTA) at OKC $6,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • Young is one of the top producers in fantasy right now. We’ll go over his exploits later in the article.
  • Morant appears to be an All-Star candidate in his sophomore season, averaging 36.0 points and 8.0 assists per game.
  • Conley has returned to his Memphis form, averaging 30 DraftKings points per game in his first two outings.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
James Harden (HOU) vs. DEN $11,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) vs. UTA $8,000 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Delon Wright (DET) at ATL $4,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • With John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins out, Harden is impossible to avoid. We’ll discuss that more later.
  • SGA is the go-to guy in OKC with Chris Paul out of town, and that certainly was the case when he provided 24 points, seven rebounds, and nine assists in the opener.
  • Wright has been starting for the Pistons and his 19 points, six rebounds, and four assists across 42 minutes of action on Saturday is a great sign going forward at this price.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Caris LeVert (BRK) vs. MEM $6,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Bojan Bogdanovic (UTA) at OKC $5,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Danuel House (HOU) at DEN $4,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • If Kevin Durant is rested in this game, LeVert is one of the best values on the board. He averaged about 40 DraftKings points per game in that role last season.
  • Bojan led the Jazz in scoring last season, and he’s too cheap for a guy that can easily drop 30 fantasy points.
  • House played 38 minutes for the shorthanded Rockets on Saturday, and that alone makes him a great bargain in this price range.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Anthony Davis (LAL) vs. POR $10,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Darius Bazley (OKC) vs. UTA $5,700 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
P.J. Tucker (HOU) at DEN $4,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • Davis sat out Sunday’s game, and we anticipate LeBron James sitting here. If that’s the case, Davis would be one of the best plays on the board.
  • Bazley is now starting for OKC and a double-double in the opener shows the sort of potential he can provide.
  • Tucker played 42 minutes in the opener, and 40 minutes appears to be his floor with Houston playing so shorthanded.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Nikola Jokic (DEN) vs. HOU $9,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Al Horford (OKC) vs. UTA $6,000 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Mason Plumlee (DET) at ATL $5,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • Jokic has been stellar for the Nuggets in his first two games, and we love him against a Rockets defense that struggled mightily last season.
  • Horford is one of the primary playmakers on this OKC roster and he should be able to average 30 DK points per game in this role. That makes him a good value until his price gets closer to $7,000.
  • Plumlee has been starting for the Pistons, averaging 10 points, 8.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. That’s the production of a $6,500 player, making Plumlee a premier choice.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • James Harden (HOU): $11,200 Harden is always a stud, but it’s scary how much usage he’s getting with Wall and Cousins sidelined. In the first game without them, Harden took 22 shots, played 43 minutes, and posted a 34 percent usage rate. That led to 44 points and 17 assists which could happen again in this monstrous role. You simply can’t fade Harden right now.
  • Anthony Davis (LAL): $10,100 If James is out, Davis is the best per-dollar play on the board. Not only is he a near guarantee for 50 DK points, but Portland also happens to be one of the worst defenses in the NBA.
  • Nikola Jokic (DEN): $9,800 Jokic is averaging 26.5 points, 12 rebounds, 12 assists, and 1.5 blocks across the first two games of the season, and he should be able to continue his triple-double ways against the shorthanded Rockets.
  • Trae Young (ATL): $9,500 Young appears to be in the early-season MVP hunt, averaging 36.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 8.0 assists per game. He’s done that damage in just 30 minutes a game while failing to provide any defensive statistics, giving him an even higher ceiling. Facing this dreadful Detroit team is simply icing on the cake.
  • Ja Morant (MEM): $8,300 Morant is one of the league leaders with a 35 percent usage rate, and that’s led to him averaging 50 DraftKings points per game. That looks even better when you consider that he gets a matchup with Kyrie Irving and his poor defense.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • LeBron James (LAL): $10,000 James went into Sunday’s game nicked up but played through his injury. That makes us believe that he’ll be sitting here in the second half of a back-to-back set.
  • Kevin Durant (BRK): $8,600 Durant is also playing the second half of a back-to-back, and he’s even more likely to sit than James coming off of that lengthy rehab from an Achilles injury.
  • John Collins (ATL): $7,600 Collins has been struggling in the early going, averaging just 13.5 points and 7.0 rebounds per game. Part of that has to do with foul trouble and part of it has to do with all of the other weapons on this team. That makes him a tough sell at this lofty price tag.
  • Blake Griffin (DET): $6,900 Griffin has been sliding over recent years. The fact that he hit eight three-pointers on Saturday but scored just 26 points is a discouraging sign. It means he’s struggling to get to the bucket, and we simply can’t trust Griffin if he’s going to be leaning on his long-range shooting.
  • Jarrett Allen (BRK): $5,800 Allen simply isn’t playing enough with DeAndre Jordan swallowing center minutes. With that said, If DJ sits, Allen is a fantastic value.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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