DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 16 (2020)
It’s championship time in redraft leagues. If you made it, congratulations! If not, there’s always next season. But before then, why not try your hand at daily fantasy? If you draft a poor lineup, you won’t have to suffer through it for a full year — you’ll be able to change things up as soon as next week!
If you want to fire up some studs in your DFS lineups, you’ll have to find cheaper options somewhere who can return value. By “value,” I mean a player who offers some upside but won’t bust for zero points. To hit value, a player should get between three to four times their salary in fantasy points. I’ll look at quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers under $6K, and at tight ends under $4.5K.
Check back next week for another slate of picks — and for my results from the week before!
Last Week’s Picks
Irv Smith (MIN): 6.7 points (1.86x)
Nice! Last week went phenomenally if you targeted these plays (well, except Daniel, but you would’ve had time to adjust), and I hope to keep the momentum rolling into Week 16.
This Week’s Value Plays
Drew Lock (DEN): $5,000 at LAC
I don’t get the pricing here. Lock hasn’t been great this season, but he has three games with 20-plus DraftKings fantasy points (DKFP), one of which came against the Chargers. The Broncos will have to air it out to keep up with the Chargers, as their defense lost all of their starting cornerbacks over the last four weeks. Fortunately, Los Angeles gives up the ninth-most DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to opposing quarterbacks (21.6). Lock may not set the world on fire, but he’s a bargain at just $5K.
Giovani Bernard (CIN): $4,800 at HOU
The Texans have given up the second-most rushing yards all season (2,107) and the most rushing yards to running backs. They are tied for the highest rate of explosive running plays allowed. Also, they give up the second-most DKPPG to the position to boot. Bernard is coming off a 25-carry, 83-yard performance against the Cowboys (the only team to give up more rushing yards than the Texans), and he should keep the momentum rolling for this one. We already know that Joe Mixon won’t play, so Bernard’s only potential competition would come from… Trayveon Williams and Samaje Perine. He’ll be a workhorse unless he fumbles, so you should feel comfortable firing him up.
Darrell Henderson (LAR): $4,500 at SEA
Cam Akers took over this backfield, but he’ll miss Week 16, so Henderson is the next man up. The last time the Rams played the Seahawks, Henderson and Malcolm Brown scored three rushing touchdowns in a true timeshare — Akers got 10 carries, Brown got 6, and Henderson got 7. Sean McVay only gave the two backs a pair of touches apiece last week against the Jets, but he won’t be able to do that again, and I feel comfortable about using either Henderson or Brown at their current price points.
Honorable mention: Malcolm Brown (LAR): $4,000 at SEA.
Mike Williams (LAC): $4,500 vs. DEN
If Mike Williams returns to practice and isn’t on a pitch count this Sunday, he’s a fantastic upside play. The Broncos are all out of cornerbacks, and a few weeks ago, Williams posted a season-best 21 DKFP against a healthier version of their secondary. Justin Herbert should target him downfield frequently. Williams only needs a splash play (or two) to hit value at this price. That said, there is a chance that he doesn’t play or is limited. If that comes to pass, Jalen Guyton ($3,200) and Tyron Johnson ($4,000) make smart pivots. All three have incredibly long-range average depth of targets. They sit at 22.1 yards (Johnson), 16.5 (Guyton), and 15.3 (Williams). All three outrank Calvin Ridley (15.1) and D.K. Metcalf (14.3) in the aDOT department.
Darnell Mooney (CHI): $4,000 at JAC
The Bears are finding ways to get Mooney the ball in space. He scored on an eight-yard dump-off pass and got a 16-yard rush last week. The speedster ran the 40-yard dash in 4.38 seconds, the fifth-fastest speed in his class, and he trailed only two wide receivers: Henry Ruggs (4.27) and Quez Watkins (4.37). Meanwhile, the Jaguars give up the eighth-most DKPPG to wideouts (41.5) and are tied for the highest rate of explosive pass plays allowed. It’s a perfect combination for the big-play receiver.
Honorable mention: Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB): $3,800 vs. TEN.
Dallas Goedert (PHI): $3,600 at DAL
Goedert was considered a top-five tight end just a few weeks ago. But with Jalen Hurts now starting in Philadelphia, he’s now just the ninth in DraftKings’ pricing. That’s below both Tyler Higbee and Evan Engram. Yet Goedert has significantly out-targeted those two, even since Hurts took over — he’s gotten 7.0 targets per game to Engram’s 5.5 and Higbee’s 3.0. The red-zone targets haven’t gone Goedert’s way, but the Eagles are moving the ball downfield again, and you should get on him while he’s this cheap because it won’t last forever.
Honorable mention: Jordan Reed (SF): $2,900 at ARI.
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.