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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Monday (1/18)

Jan 18, 2021

LeBron James has been crushing recently, scoring at least 41 fantasy points in 11-straight games.

This is one of the biggest days in the NBA season. We have almost every team in action and games spread throughout the day to celebrate Martin Luther King Day. It’s been a crazy year (and one month), and this is a day to sit back and enjoy our love for basketball. In terms of DFS, there are a ton of tournaments available. We’re going to go ahead and focus on the four games that make up the night slate. With that in mind, let’s get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Most Value Per Dollar

Players expected to generate the most value relative to salary.

Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Luka Doncic (DAL) at TOR $11,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Eric Gordon (HOU) at CHI $5,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Bruce Brown (BKN) vs. MIL $4,300 ⭐⭐⭐ High

 

  • Doncic is the best fantasy asset right now, and he’ll obviously be in the studs section.
  • Gordon is expected to return here, and he could be playing point guard with James Harden out of town, and John Wall injured.
  • Brown is the best defensive player in Brooklyn, and that should force him into 20-25 minutes a night. That’s certainly been the case the last three games, with Brown averaging 29 DK points per game across 26 minutes a night.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
James Harden (BKN) vs. MIL $10,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Coby White (CHI) vs. HOU $7,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Mason Jones (HOU) at CHI $4,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • Harden will also be in the studs section after his triple-double debut.
  • White has been one of the biggest breakouts this season, averaging 33 DraftKings points per game. We can’t overlook that against a bad Rockets defense.
  • The Rockets are really shorthanded right now, and that allowed Jones to provide 38 fantasy points across 35 minutes in their most recent game. Good luck finding that from another $4,100 player.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
LeBron James (LAL) vs. GSW $9,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Kelly Oubre (GSW) at LAL $5,400 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Jeff Green (BKN) vs. MIL $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐ High

 

  • LeBron is the best player of our generation, and he’ll be in the studs section in a supreme matchup like this.
  • Oubre has been a $7,000 player at times throughout his career, and we want to keep riding him until his price gets to at least $6K.
  • Green is starting for this shortened Nets rotation, playing at least 30 minutes in back-to-back games. That’s all you can ask for from a $4,200 player.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) at BKN $10,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jae’Sean Tate (HOU) at CHI $5,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
P.J. Tucker (HOU) at CHI $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

 

  • Giannis will also find his way into the studs section later on.
  • Tate is another Houston player picking up minutes with Harden and Wall both out of the picture. Over his last two games, Tate has 64.5 combined DK points while playing 29 minutes a night. Not to mention, Chicago owns a 27th OPRK against opposing power forwards.
  • Tucker looks likely to play 35-40 minutes, and that’s enough to take a gamble on him here at $4,500.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Wendell Carter Jr. (CHI) vs. HOU $6,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Willie Cauley-Stein (DAL) at TOR $5,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
DeAndre Jordan (BKN) vs. MIL $4,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • WCJ has been rolling recently, and it’s easy to love him against a bad defense like Houston. The big man has scored at least 34 DK points in four of his last five games and has his season average creeping up towards 30 fantasy points.
  • WCS has been starting for the Mavs, and he should continue to get big minutes with Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Maxi Kleber all still out. In this expanded role, Cauley-Stein is averaging over 25 fantasy points per game.
  • Jordan is starting and playing big minutes with Jarrett Allen being traded. In the two games without him, DJ is averaging 24 fantasy points per game in about 25 minutes a night.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Luka Doncic (DAL) $11,000: Doncic got off to a slow start this season, but he’s rolling right now. Over his last six games, Luka is averaging 30 points, 12.2 rebounds, 10.5 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game. That’s an absurd 63 DK points, and he’s clearly the best option on every slate right now.
  • James Harden (BKN) $10,800: People were worried about Harden, but 32 points, 12 rebounds, 14 assists, and four steals in his debut should quiet any doubters. Look for him to pile up the stats against the fastest-paced team in the NBA too.
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $10,400: We get Giannis facing off with Harden and Kevin Durant. This game should be full of fireworks, and Antetokoumpo will be on the top of his game. We love that for a guy who’s already averaging more than 50 DraftKings points per night.
  • LeBron James (LAL) $9,700: James has been crushing recently, scoring at least 41 fantasy points in 11-straight games. He’s averaging 25 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 8.0 assists per game in that span, and a line like that should not be hard to duplicate against a 25th-ranked Warriors defense.
  • Zach LaVine (CHI) $9,500: LaVine really doesn’t fit in with the rest of these names, but he’s been one of the best players in the league over the last week. In fact, he’s averaging 34.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 1.0 steals over his last six games played. That’s terrifying for a Rockets team that ranks 20th in total defense.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Stephen Curry (GSW) $9,800: This is easily our riskiest fade of the slate. What worries me about Curry is that he has to face the best defense in the NBA. That would be concerning enough at this price, but it’s even scarier when you see that almost every loss Golden State has suffered has been by at least 25 points. That means they give up when they’re down big, and that seems more likely here than in any game they’ve played yet.
  • Kristaps Porzingis (DAL) $8,200: KP has been playing limited minutes in his return to action, and we don’t want to play him until we know he’ll play at least 30 minutes. It’s not like Toronto is a matchup we necessarily want to exploit either.
  • Jrue Holiday (MIL) $7,200: Holiday is one of the most consistent NBA players, but Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton have killed his ceiling. That’s evident by the fact that he’s failed to crack 34 DK points in eight of his 13 games this season.
  • Chris Boucher (TOR) $7,100: This dude has been incredible, but it’s still scary to trust a guy who’s coming off the bench and playing fewer than 24 minutes a night. That doesn’t even consider that Dallas has been one of the best defenses over the last two weeks and this sky-high price tag.
  • Andrew Wiggins (LAL) $6,600: We already talked about the blowout potential for Curry, and the same goes for Wiggins. He’s even riskier, though, failing to crack 30 fantasy points in four of his last six games. If this game gets out of hand, look for these guys to sit out most of the fourth quarter.

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Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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