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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy: Wednesday (1/27)

Jan 27, 2021

Stephen Curry is the best premium play on the board.

This slate is going to be nuts. After getting just three games on Tuesday, we have 12 here. That makes it one of the biggest of the season, and that even includes a postponement between the Grizzlies and Bulls. That means there’s a lot to get into, so let’s go ahead and get started!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel.

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Because we have a 12-game slate, every position is deep. That means waiting on injury news is arguably the most important thing here, inevitably opening up tons of value at every position.

We also have a ton of information on betting lines and totals over at BettingPros.

Stephen Curry (GSW) $9,300
Curry is the best premium play on the board, and I’ll discuss that more in the studs section later on. 

Andre Drummond (CLE) $8,400 
Drummond is a double-double machine, averaging over 46 DraftKings points per game. That alone makes him a great value, but we love that he faces a Detroit team owning a 30th OPRK against opposing centers this season. Not to mention, it’s a revenge game for the former Piston.

Deandre Ayton (PHO) $7,400 
Ayton deserves a bigger price increase the way he’s been playing. He’s got at least 39 DK points in four-straight games, averaging nearly 50 fantasy points per game in that span. 

Kemba Walker (BOS) $6,300 
Walker’s price is low because he’s been limited in his return from an injury, but he should be ready for 30 minutes here. That’s big news for a guy who’s seen his fantasy points increase in every game, culminating in a 40-spot in his most recent outing. 

Naz Reid (MIN) $6,100 
Reid continues to start for Karl-Anthony Towns, scoring at least 30 DK points in three-straight. That’s bad news for a bad Warriors defense.

Cole Anthony (ORL) $5,500
Sacramento has one of the worst defenses in the NBA, and we love that for any opposing point guard. Anthony is starting to turn things around, too, scoring at least 33 DK points in back-to-back games.

Isaiah Roby (OKC) $5,500
If Roby starts for Al Horford again here, he’s a great play at this price. He’s averaging 25 DK points per game in this role.

Darius Garland (CLE) $4,600
Garland has been ramping back up from his injury, and the word is that his minute’s restriction and bench role have been lifted. That means he’s one of the best values out there, averaging over 30 DK points per game as the starter before his injury. 

Robin Lopez (WAS) $4,600
Lopez is starting for Thomas Bryant, averaging 27 DK points per game in this expanded role. 

Gary Harris (DEN) $4,100
Harris is starting to turn things around, scoring at least 17 DK points in nine-straight games en route to a 22-point average. That’s all you can ask for from a $4,100 player.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Luka Doncic (DAL) $10,900: Doncic is the frontrunner for MVP based on betting odds, and rightfully so. Over his last 12 games played, he’s averaging 28.4 points, 11.1 rebounds, 11.2 assists, 1.1 steals, and 0.9 blocks per game. That’s over 60 DK points a night, which makes him hard to avoid on every slate.
  • Bradley Beal (WAS) $10,200: Beal has been one of the most reliable players in fantasy, scoring at least 40 DK points in every game. That gives him an average north of 50 DK points, and he could see an increase in usage, with Westbrook likely sitting in a B2B. We’re certainly not worried about the Pelicans’ pitiful defense either.
  • Stephen Curry (GSW) $9,300: Curry has been crushing recently, scoring at least 39 DK points in six-straight games. One of those was a 54-point gem over these T’Wolves, which is no surprise when you see that they rank 28th in total defense.
  • Nikola Vucevic (ORL) $9,200: Vooch is another consistency monster, scoring at least 32 fantasy points in every game this year. It’s even more amazing when you consider that Vucevic has at least 47 DK points in nine of his last 10 games, which is horrific news for a 29th-ranked Kings defense.
  • Bam Adebayo (MIA) $8,600: With Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro still out, Bam is running things for the Heat. He actually leads the team in usage with those two out, scoring at least 49 DraftKings points in four of his last six games. That obviously makes him intriguing against a 21st-ranked Denver defense.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Russell Westbrook (WAS) $9,100: Westbrook has been struggling a bit with his injury, and that makes him hard to trust here. What makes it even worse is the fact that this is the second half of a back-to-back set. That means even if Westbrook plays, he might be limited.
  • Ben Simmons (PHI) $8,100: Simmons just posted a 25-point dud on Monday, and he really hasn’t been performing at this price whenever Joel Embiid is in the lineup. That is worrisome no matter what but facing the best defense in the NBA means that we’re going to fade him altogether.
  • LaMelo Ball (CHA) $6,200: Ball has been in this section a lot recently, and recent results would indicate that we’ve been spot on with his struggles. He’s actually failed to surpass 30 DraftKings points in five of his last six games and is averaging just 23 minutes a night in that stretch. That looks even worse against a stout Pacers defense.
  • LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS) $6,000: LA has been a shell of himself all season long, and it’s hard to understand why he saw such a drastic price increase. He’s only reached 30 fantasy points in four of his 14 games this season en route to a 26-point average. That’s not good enough for someone this expensive, particularly against a stingy Celtics defense.
  • Jarrett Allen (CLE) $5,300: Allen has the talent to be an $8,000 player, but he just consistently gets stuck in these crappy roles. He’s now behind Andre Drummond in Cleveland, averaging 22 DK points per game in fewer than 25 minutes a night. We love him as a player, but we can’t use him at this price when we know he won’t play 30 minutes.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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