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FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Thursday (1/28)

by Zachary Hanshew | @ZaktheMonster | Featured Writer
Jan 28, 2021

AD should be an anchor in tournament lineups tonight

After a massive Wednesday slate, we’re down to just four contests for Thursday, but the smaller player pool doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of options available! As always, we’ll name values, studs, and fades for the day’s DFS festivities. Let’s get right to it!

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Most Value Per Dollar 

Because of the size of the slate, it’s important to hit on your studs, find the right values, differentiate from the field, and squeeze every drop of value you can. There’s plenty of value to be found at every position tonight, particularly at SG and SF. For those positions, I’m looking to spend down for some values in the mid-to-low salary tiers. Center is once again separated pretty significantly from the top tier to the next group, while PF and PG are the positions that you should really think about spending up on. The Lakers/Pistons game has a 214.5 over/under with the Lakers favored by 9.5, Clippers/Heat has a similar o/u, but the line is much closer with the Heat (-4). The Suns/Warriors game has a healthier 220.5 o/u with Phoenix (-1.5), while the Rockets/Trail Blazers game is unsurprisingly the highest o/u at 229.5 with the Rockets (-4.5). While I can’t get to all of the players in that game, it’s the best game environment to target for the small slate.

Notable injuries and absences for the Clippers and Heat provide some great value options, and the injury report should be checked before tipoff to get a clear status on Phoenix’s Devin Booker. One of my favorite plays on tonight’s slate is Anthony Davis, though he carries some risk if the Lakers potentially blowout the Pistons.

Full odds can be found at BettingPros

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

 

 

Enes Kanter (C – POR): $6,500
Kanter went off for 13 points and 23 boards Monday, and he’s now surpassed 50 FD points in two of his last four games. Tonight’s matchup with Houston offers the best game environment on the slate, so Kanter should be a popular center in the mid-tier salary range.

Kendrick Nunn (SG – MIA): $6,200 vs. LAC
Which Miami player should be in your sights tonight? Nunn other than Kendrick! He’s seen heavy playing time and usage as of late thanks to Miami’s litany of absences. The Clippers will be without three of their best defenders tonight in Leonard, PG13, and PatBev, making Nunn an even more attractive play.

Delon Wright (PG – DET): $6,000 vs. LAL
Wright has scored at least 36 FD points in three of his last four games, including a season-high 55.9 Monday against Philly. He’s a fine scorer, but his ability to fill up the stat sheet is what’s kept his fantasy value so inflated. In that four-game span, Wright has averaged six boards, six assists, and nearly three combined blocks/steals while playing a key role in Detroit’s offense. This is the wrong time to fade Wright.

Jae Crowder (PF – PHO): $5,200 vs. GSW
Crowder has started for Phoenix in each of the team’s last two games, and he’ll likely do that again tonight if Devin Booker remains out. Crowder has scored at least 34 FD points in both games, and tonight’s matchup with Golden State offers a friendly game environment to extend that streak of quality fantasy performances to three. 

Reggie Jackson (PG – LAC): $5,000 at MIA
Jackson went off for 47.4 FD points Tuesday thanks to a robust 20/8/7 line, yet his price hasn’t changed in the last two days. He’s still just $5K, even with Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Patrick Beverley out again tonight.

 

 

James Wiseman (C – GSW): $4,800 at PHO
Wiseman’s playing time is obviously a concern, as is the fact that he hasn’t started either of the Dubs’ last two games. Still, he’s averaged 29.0 FD points across his last five contests while eclipsing 30 FD points twice in that span. I like that value for tournaments.

Gary Trent (SG – POR): $4,800 at HOU
Trent started for Portland on Monday against the Thunder, and he logged 41 minutes in the process. I want to get as much exposure to the Rockets/Blazers as I can on this slate, and drafting Trent allows you plenty of flexibility to jam in multiple studs. 

Reggie Jackson (PG – LAC): $5,000 at MIA
Jackson went off for 47.4 FD points Tuesday thanks to a robust 20/8/7 line, yet his price hasn’t changed in the last two days. He’s still just $5K, even with Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Patrick Beverley out again tonight.

Terance Mann (PG – LAC): $4,500 at MIA
Mann played 33 minutes and scored 34.3 FD points Tuesday, and he’ll look to keep that momentum going tonight against the Heat. With the Clippers’ primary offensive options out again and Lou Williams continuing to struggle, it’s time to Mann up with Terance on this slate.

Jae’Sean Tate (SF – HOU): $3,800 vs. POR
David Nwaba seems like the safer play, but at $5.3K, he’s $1,500 more than Tate, and that ain’t great. I’d rather spend down to this beautiful sub-$4K price tag and take a chance on a guy who’s averaged better than 26 minutes per game this season. Usage and opportunity will take a hit with Houston beginning to return its starters, but Tate has established himself as a regular part of Coach Silas’ rotation. 

Marc Gasol (C – LAL): $3,600 at DET
Detroit has surrendered the fourth-most FD points to opposing bigs this season (58.11) and the most blocks per game to opponents (6.6). Those numbers bode well for Gasol, given his ability to produce solid lines in limited minutes. His playing time and usage are too erratic to warrant cash-game consideration, but if you need a cheap GPP target, Gasol should be a great option at center. Marc my words!

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • John Wall (HOU) $7,300: Wall should continue to see his minutes ramp up after playing just 24 on Tuesday, and while he’ll be competing with Victor Oladipo and Christian Wood for usage, the $7.3K price tag is just too low to ignore.
  • Chris Paul (PHO) $7,400: Paul has been spectacular with Devin Booker sidelined for the Suns’ last two games. In that span, the veteran has posted 53 points, 18 dimes, and 14 boards to go with 50 FD points per contest. If Booker is out again tonight, Paul makes a great target.
  • Damian Lillard (POR) $9,700: Portland and Houston has the highest over/under of the evening, and the spread is just 4.5. That’s a great game environment for Lillard, who should continue to see heavy usage with CJ McCollum out.
  • Anthony Davis (LAL) $10,200: Davis should be an anchor in tournaments tonight with such a friendly matchup against Detroit’s generous defense. Add in that LeBron James has scored 80 points across 76 minutes across his last two games, and the Lakers play on the second night of a back-to-back. I’m expecting Davis to get his tonight and give the King a little breather. There is the potential for a blowout here, so Davis comes with that built-in risk. But with Christian Wood ($9.5K) likely the chalkier option tonight, Davis could be the difference-maker in winning lineups.

Notable Players to Fade

  • DeMarcus Cousins (HOU) $8,000: Christian Wood is set to make his return tonight, and despite Boogie’s dominant run with the former out of action, it’s time to pump the breaks. Wood should immediately slot back in as the Rockets’ starting center, and Cousins will have a tough time living up to his hefty price tag.
  • Victor Oladipo (HOU) $8,300: Ditto, Dipo. I’ll fade him tonight as the most expensive SG on the slate with Christian Wood making his way back to the lineup.
  • Stephen Curry (GSW) $9,800: Not that Curry couldn’t blow past value at this price point, but there are so many cheaper options at PG who offer similar upside tonight, particularly Damian Lillard or Chris Paul.
  • LeBron James (LAL) $10,700: He continues to be a fade in a lot of my articles, and I’m willing to pass again tonight, despite his recent hot streak. As mentioned above, James has been on the court a lot over the last three days, and on the second night of a back-to-back, I’d much rather spend my money elsewhere. Anthony Davis is a better play at $500 cheaper if you want some action in the Lakers game.

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Zachary Hanshew is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Zachary, check out his archive and follow him @zakthemonster.