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FanDuel NFL DFS Value Plays: Conference Championships (2021)

Jan 23, 2021

It’s hard to pass up on Aaron Rodgers at $8,700.

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As the season winds down, I want to thank everyone for reading my value column this year. Hopefully, you had a profitable season. I plan to do one more column for the Super Bowl, but it’ll be a showdown column. This week’s value column is a little different. With only four teams, it’s not always possible to find “cheap” guys to list as values, so I’m looking at it from a points-per-dollar perspective. Let’s get to it.

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Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers (GB) $8,700 vs. TB 
Rodgers had his worst game of the season — if not his career — to this Bucs team back in Week 6. That alone makes me want to play Rodgers. He is the type of player to use that as motivation. This is the same guy that still holds a grudge against every team that passed up on him in the NFL Draft. I know the Bucs defense is good, probably the best overall defense of the four teams still standing, but it’s hard to pass up on Rodgers at $8,700. He averaged 24.31 FFPG on the season, but if you took that Bucs game out, it jumps up to 28.3 — more than any other QB averaged this season.

Running Backs

Devin Singletary (BUF) $5,800 @ KC
As much as the Bills passing game has been lauded, it’ll be their defense and ability to run the ball that decides this game. Zack Moss isn’t going to be available for the rest of the season, leaving Singeltary as the lead back. Yes, I know, he was the lead back last week too and only had 10 touches, but in a game that ended 17-to-3, there aren’t a lot of points to go around. There will be points scored in this game, and I see Singletary being a big part of the Bills gameplan.

AJ Dillon (GB) $4,700 vs. TB
This pick is far riskier than Singletary. For one, the Packers will deploy a three-headed monster with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams forming the other two heads. Two, the Packers may not want to take the chance at playing a rookie in their biggest game of the season. The upside is the Packers could use the big back in goal-to-go situations, and he really only needs 40 yards and one touchdown to pay off his $4.7k salary. It’s in the range of possibilities that Dillon doesn’t get a single touch, but on a two-game slate, he is as good a bet as any to get an unexpected touchdown.

Wide Receivers

Cole Beasley (BUF) $5,700 @ KC
Beasley played last week, though you wouldn’t know it by looking at the box score. He played the game injured and was only targetted twice, the fewest targets he has had since Week 8, and he did not make a single catch for the first time all season (he sat out Week 17). This week he does not carry an injury designation, and we get a price-break over last week. The Chiefs are going to do anything they can to slow down Stefon Diggs, and if they are even moderately successful, Beasley could receive a ton of targets.

Mecole Hardman (KC) $5,300 vs. BUF
Similar to AJ Dillon, Hardman is a true dart throw. Last week he had four catches on five targets for 58 yards — and that was one of his better stat lines of the season. Not a ringing endorsement, I know, but he is one of those players that only needs “one play.” Head coach Andy Reid likes to draw up plays that the defense will never see coming, and after Hardman was a non-factor in their Week 6 victory over the Bills, Hardman could be part of that package of plays.

Tight Ends

Robert Tonyan (GB) $5,700 vs. TB
It’s a rare thing when the second-most expensive player at his position is considered a value, but when that player is $2,900 less than the most expensive player, that’s exactly what you have. There are only two tight ends that I’d consider rostering this week, Tonyan and Travis Kelce, and Kelce is $8,600! Rob Gronkowski has not been good thus far in the playoffs, with only one catch total in the two games. Cameron Brate has been better than Gronk, but his price has risen to $5,000, and I just don’t see the upside in him. Dawson Knox isn’t a very big part of the Bills passing game. That leaves me with Tonyan, the breakout star tight end of 2020. The best thing with Tonyan is the Rodgers trusts him. It’s not quite the trust he has in Devonte Adams, but it’s close. You can go ahead and pencil Tonyan in for 4-to-5 catches, 50-ish yards, and a touchdown.

Defense

Kansas City Chiefs vs. BUF $4,100
Defenses are a hard choice this week. Because the offenses of the four remaining teams as so good, it’s hard to pick the defense against them. It will come down to one big mistake, likely by the quarterback, that will give one of these defenses an edge over the others. When looking at the four QBs; Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen, which one would you put your money on to make a mistake? Exactly.

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