It’s never too early to delve into the new fantasy football season. Analyzing data and tracking player situations in the offseason provide an edge at draft time. When deciding which running backs to target, there are several factors to consider. Their skillset is obvious, but it is also beneficial to weigh in their perceived value (ADP), offensive lines and schemes, and possible usage changes. Here’s an early look at a few running back must-haves in advance of the 2021 season.
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Jonathan Taylor (IND)
Jonathan Taylor tops this list. He’s a shoo-in as one of the Top 5 running backs to draft in 2021. Existing health concerns and inevitable changes to the status quo for backs like Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Alvin Kamara support this narrative.
Taylor finished as the 6th highest scoring fantasy running back in 2020, although he didn’t take over lead duties for the Indianapolis Colts until late in the second half of the season. From Week 11 on, he averaged over 20 fantasy points per game. During that span, a league-high 34.4% of his carries resulted in either a first down or a touchdown. PFF gave Taylor a rushing grade of 83.9, second only to Derrick Henry’s mark of 91.2.
He will be the centerpiece of the offense behind a line ranked 7th overall by PFF despite suffering some late-season injuries. Taylor only dropped one of his 38 targets, quashing concerns that the Colts will replace him on passing downs in favor of backup Nyheim Hines.
In the initial 2021 Best Ball drafts, Taylor is the third running back coming off the board and is being selected sixth overall according to the FFPC (Fantasy Football Players Championship).
We're only about 20 leagues deep in the 2021 @FFPC Best Ball season, but we can start making notes.
Here is the distribution of #1 overall picks so far. ADP of them noted as well for further context. Kelce (TE Premium) seeing the 2nd most #1 overall selections. pic.twitter.com/TAtAoO5ThJ
— fantasymojo (@fantasymojo) January 23, 2021
Aaron Jones (FA)
Aaron Jones is heading for the open market. It is a bit unlikely he’ll re-sign with Green Bay as they don’t have a great salary cap situation and have depth at the position. The Packers already made Jones a substantial contract offer. Jones rejected the deal, though, as it was reportedly absent of big guaranteed money.
Despite scoring the second-most points at his position in 2019, there was a lot of trepidation heading into last season about Jones being touchdown-dependent. Over a third of those points came from 19 combined touchdowns, a number that would be hard to replicate. It’s fair to blame the Packers for his lack of yardage that year as they were unwilling to commit to him between the tackles. Instead, they had a baffling penchant for feeding the ball to backup Jamaal Williams.
This past season, Jones finally saw full lead back duties. His touchdown totals regressed as expected, but he made up for the points lost from fewer TDs in scrimmage yards, finishing as the #5 back in fantasy.
Jones just turned 26 in December and is a powerful, explosive runner with great vision and hands. There have been games over the past few years where he singlehandedly carried his team to wins. If he returns to Green Bay or lands on a team poised to contend, his value will only skyrocket.
Cam Akers (LAR)
Utilizing a zone running scheme, the LA Rams are reminiscent of the Denver Broncos team under Coach Mike Shanahan from two decades ago. Rushing behind a Top 3 offensive line, the Rams’ Cam Akers, Darryl Henderson, and Malcolm Brown all found success last season, similar to Todd Gurley in previous years. Like the Broncos team of old, it didn’t seem to matter who was in the backfield; they flourished when running the football.
Questions remain regarding Akers’ role moving forward, and to a lesser extent, his abilities. Some in the fantasy community believe that Coach Sean McVay could return to a running back by committee, citing Akers’ increased workload came in the wake of Henderson’s injury.
Cam Akers 2020 Stats
| Carries | Rushing Yards | Rushing TDs | Yards/Carry |
| 145 | 625 | 2 | 4.3 |
Darryl Henderson 2020 Stats
| Carries | Rushing Yards | Rushing TDs | Yards/Carry |
| 138 | 624 | 5 | 4.5 |
When comparing the two main backs, the 2020 rushing stats appear similar and slightly favor Henderson. However, the numbers fail to reveal vital data, such as Akers created more yards despite facing more stacked boxes.
Akers’ high draft capital and 15 touches in his first NFL game signaled the team’s intention of making him a bell cow from the start. The rib injuries he sustained in the Rams’ second game derailed a probable fast track to the top of the depth chart. Those injuries basically shut him down from Weeks 2-12. Once fully healthy, he was immediately reinserted into the starting lineup and never looked back. Akers touched the ball at least 18 times in five of his last six games and had 21-plus carries in four of them. He put on a clinic during the Rams’ two playoff games to the tune of 221 yards and two touchdowns on 46 carries.
It is doubtful Brown will remain with the team while Henderson will likely assume the backup duties. Akers should be in the Top 12 running back conversation for the upcoming season with a massive rushing share.
As an addendum, the Matthew Stafford acquisition should expand Akers’ role in the passing game as well.
James Robinson (JAX)
If James Robinson remains the featured back for Jacksonville, he will be a steal at his current consensus ranking of 19 at the position.
As an undrafted free agent in 2020, Robinson had a lot to prove after replacing former first-round pick Leonard Fournette. His 120 all-purpose yards and first career touchdown against the Tennessee Titans in Week 2 foreshadowed a stellar rookie season. Robinson went on to tally the most scrimmage yards of any rookie free agent in NFL history despite not playing the final two games of the season.
Whoever the Jaguars draft at quarterback should be irrelevant to his value. Robinson finished as the fantasy RB7 while playing with mediocre quarterbacks on a subpar offense. A generational talent such as QB draft prospect Trevor Lawrence would be an immediate upgrade for him.
Jacksonville will likely draft a running back this year to add much-needed depth, which won’t affect Robinson much. But with a crazy amount of cap space available, it might behoove the Jaguars to bring in a high profile veteran like Aaron Jones. A move like that would devastate Robinson’s value.
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Bonnie Robinson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Bonnie, follow her @FantasyQueenB.
