DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Sunday (3/28)
It felt like a trade was inevitable just a few weeks ago, but the Toronto Raptors didn’t end up dealing Kyle Lowry at the deadline. Instead, they shipped Norman Powell off to Portland, and that creates an interesting revenge-game narrative for this slate.
Each week, I’ll be here to profile some strong value plays, studs, and duds for Sunday’s DraftKings slate. I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction, and if you have any questions, you can hit me up on Twitter at @is_sirois. All matchup data is pulled from our defense versus position tool.
Most Value Per Dollar
We have an ugly three-game slate on tap this evening. Only one matchup has a projected total north of 230: POR/TOR (230.5). The rest have totals below 225: ATL/DEN (222) and ORL/LAL (208.5), per the BettingPros consensus odds. Expect to see plenty of Raptors and Trail Blazers featured below.
On the injury front, Lillard should return to action for Portland after missing Friday’s game against the Magic. Orlando’s lineup remains in flux with Terrence Ross questionable, Cole Anthony sidelined, and two new acquisitions (Wendell Carter and Otto Porter) yet to debut. Keep an eye on the headlines as tip-off approaches — their last-second personnel decisions may dictate who hits value and who doesn’t tonight.
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary, ranked in order of how much they’ll cost you.
Pascal Siakam (TOR) $7,600
Siakam looks like of the slate’s best values this evening. He’ll take on the Trail Blazers, who surrender a league-average rate of DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to power forwards and centers. Notably, Siakam has been on a hot streak of late, as he has averaged 52.2 DKPPG (6.9x value) over his last two outings. He may not hit that ceiling again tonight, but he is a fantastic asset to target in what’s projected to be the slate’s highest-scoring matchup.
Kyle Lowry (TOR) $7,500
The Raptors held on to (or got stuck with) Lowry at the trade deadline, and since the Trail Blazers give up the most DKPPG to point guards, Lowry should deliver at a salary this low. The game’s high posted total is another reason to target the veteran.
Dennis Schroder (LAL) $7,100
With Anthony Davis and LeBron James both on the shelf, the brunt of Los Angeles’ offensive workload falls to Schroder. Since James’ injury, Schroder has averaged 18.5 points, seven assists, and 3.3 rebounds per game — or 37.9 DKPPG (5.3x value). He should continue to post those kinds of numbers tonight, as the Magic give up the third-most DKPPG to point guards.
Norman Powell (POR) $6,600
Who doesn’t love a good revenge narrative? Powell will take on his former team just days after the deadline, and he should be a strong asset at either guard or forward. He played 36 minutes in his debut for the Blazers, which may tick down now that Damian Lillard is projected to return to the starting lineup, but the sharpshooter should still see enough work to hit value at this surprisingly low-end salary.
Robert Covington (POR) $6,000
I promise I won’t feature only Blazers and Raptors in this column, although it may look like that right now. Covington has been hot of late, as he posted 43.5 DK points against the Magic on Friday. He only needs 30 points to hit value, and on a slate this small, you could do far worse at forward or center. It helps that the Raptors have struggled against opposing power forwards all season.
Will Barton (DEN) $5,800
I like Barton against the Hawks here. He failed to impress in his prior two outings, and he will have to compete with Aaron Gordon now, but his salary has been lowered to reflect those developments. Barton was averaging 34.5 DKPPG (5.95x value) in the five games before his recent slump, so betting on a return to normal from him could pay dividends.
Dwayne Bacon (ORL) $5,300
It’s hard to tell what the Magic intend to do moving forward. We still haven’t seen them feature Otto Porter or Wendell Carter yet, so I don’t recommend reading too much into their first game after the trade deadline. However, Orlando opted to start Bacon and Chasson Randle at guard over Michael Carter-Williams, and Bacon ended up with the most minutes (34) of any guard in their rotation. He will get the minutes to pay off his salary if Terrence Ross continues to sit; if he plays, I would avoid Bacon at this salary.
Bogdan Bogdanovic (ATL) $4,900
The Hawks tried to move Bogdanovic before the deadline, but they couldn’t find a deal that worked, so now he’s stuck in Atlanta. However, at a salary this low, he does offer some value. He needs to post just under 25 DK points to hit value, which he has done in two of his last five games. Bogdanovic is a good low-end option to help you get at least some exposure to Atlanta’s offense.
Gary Trent Jr. (TOR) $4,800
Revenge game. The Trail Blazers shipped Trent and Rodney Hood off for Norman Powell, and they’ll have a chance to make Portland regret that decision this evening. The Raptors included Trent in their starting five against the Suns on Friday, and while he didn’t get off to a great start, we can blame Phoenix’s strong defensive play for his underperformance.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (LAL) $3,900
KCP’s low-end salary makes him worth targeting at DraftKings. While he has been inconsistent since LeBron went down, he did drop 35.5 DK points against the 76ers. With a messy matchup against the Orlando Magic on tap, KCP will have the minutes and the matchup necessary to hit value, and he only needs to score 19.5 DK points to do so.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Nikola Jokic (DEN) $10,400: Jokic is a blue-chip asset you can always trust to provide tons of fantasy points. The Hawks may surrender the fifth-fewest DKPPG to centers, but Jokic’s salary has been adjusted for the tough matchup. Jokic should be chalk tonight, and you’ll have to eat it.
- Damian Lillard (POR) $9,800: Like Jokic, Lillard is another blue-chip asset with an incredibly high ceiling. He just sat out Portland’s last game against the Magic, but he will be available for tonight’s contest, and you can trust him to deliver in what should be a high-scoring game.
- Fred VanVleet (TOR) $7,800: I prefer Lowry to VanVleet on this slate, but FVV is still worth considering nonetheless. The Trail Blazers give up the seventh-most DKPPG to shooting guards, and since Toronto just shipped off a pair of guards, VanVleet should see plenty of usage tonight.
Notable Players to Fade
- C.J. McCollum (POR) $8,000: McCollum has looked great recent, but that’s reflected in his now-increased salary. I don’t expect him to continue his hot streak tonight — Lillard is back in the lineup, and Powell should assert himself against his former team.
- Jamal Murray (DEN) $7,700: The Nuggets just acquired Aaron Gordon, and I want to see how their rotation shakes out before I commit to Murray in DFS.
- Enes Kanter (POR) $6,600: With Jusuf Nurkic back in the lineup, Kanter shouldn’t see as much run moving forward, so it’ll be difficult for him to hit value against a salary this high.
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