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Average Draft Position (ADP) Risers & Fallers (2021 Fantasy Football)

by Jeff Bell | @4WhomJBellTolls | Featured Writer
Aug 7, 2021


 
This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Jeff Bell, head over to GoingFor2.com.

Average draft position (ADP) is the heartbeat of fantasy football. It ebbs and flows along with news and forms the basis of most predraft rankings across multiple sites. FantasyPros’ curates a list from various websites in an attempt to eliminate bias. One of the most significant pieces of advice to anyone entering a draft is understanding the default rankings and knowing where to exploit value.

Now that camp is here, we have begun to see news that shifts the landscape of leagues. Injuries, resolutions to long-standing situations, and potential clarity on depth charts are all part of the process. Who is rising in value, and who is sinking?

Average Draft Position (ADP) risers and fallers determined using FantasyPros Consensus ADP

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Risers

Green Bay Packers – All
No piece of news held up fantasy value like Aaron Rodgers’ (QB – GB) future. Speculation of retirement or trade demands flew since February. Now that the dust has cleared, values in the passing game have spiked, with Rodgers and Robert Tonyan (TE – GB) coming in as two of the biggest risers.

The most notable value change is Randall Cobb (WR – GB). Cobb currently sits at FantasyPros WR67. Forgotten about in Houston, he has seen diminishing production every year since he peaked at WR8 in 2014. There are still reasons for optimism. Entering his age 31 season, Cobb can look to his birthday buddy Adam Thielen’s (WR – MIN) WR11 season as a reason for optimism. The Packers have searched for a complimentary WR to Davante Adams (WR – GB) since Cobb’s departure; he is worth the risk at his price.

Michael Carter (RB – NYJ) RB30, ADP 81 
Carter has been a hot rookie name since landing in an unsettled Jets backfield. Some speculation he would split time with Tevin Coleman (RB – NYJ) drove down his price. Early camp reports have come back very favorably with consistent first-team reps. There is still a belief Coleman will see early-down work, but passing game work pays off in points.

Nyheim Hines (RB – IND) and J.D. McKissic (RB – WFT) were placed at RB29 and 30 respectively in PPR, almost exclusively based on passing work. If Carter has a decisive share of the pass work, his ADP is a bargain. The chance he claims a significant overall work share makes his price tempting.  

Irv Smith Jr. (TE – MIN) TE17, ADP 138 
Multiple reports have raved about Smith Jr.’s ability in the red zone. This usage is especially notable after Thielen placed fourth with 23 red-zone targets. Entering his third season and with the departure of Kyle Rudolph (TE – NYG), a breakout season could be on the horizon. At TE17, he stands to be one of the latest picks in many standard-sized leagues. As the camp buzz continues to build, he stands to climb much higher in drafts.

Fallers

Mike Davis (RB – ATL) RB26, ADP 64 
For much of the offseason, the possibility of Davis earning a bell-cow role buoyed his ADP. Where he fell in drafts, he presented one of the last opportunities to grab a player who potentially stood to claim a large work share. Mixed reports have come in from camp early; while the reviews on Davis’s play have been positive, Qadree Ollison (RB – ATL) and Cordarrelle Patterson (RB – ATL) have also seen work with the top offense.  

At age 28, Davis came off a career-best season in 2020. However, the Panthers minimized his role in the passing game as the season progressed. Arthur Smith’s Titans offense, the new head coach, placed dead last in RB targets with just 58. A likely reality of Davis splitting carries in a target lite offense makes a 6th round ADP steep. 

Marquise Brown (WR – BAL) WR40, ADP 101 
Brown injured his hamstring and could miss a chunk of camp. On a team that used a first-round pick on WR Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL) and signed WR Sammy Watkins (WR – BAL), Brown missing time puts him behind in maintaining his offensive role. More so concerning, as a player who relies heavily on speed, an injury to a hamstring could be the type that limits his effectiveness even upon return.  

The rigors of a football season are very real, and few players play at full strength. But unlike a player who may rely on power, Brown is a finely tuned sports car. When he does return, he could find a significantly diminished role. His historical profile as a highly variable producer makes him unappealing in many formats this season.

James Conner (RB – AZ) RB35, ADP 87 
Conner is a frustrating injury case, and unsurprisingly he is already missing time in camp. Coach Kliff Kinsbury raved about Chase Edmonds (RB – AZ) on multiple occasions. A realistic outlook is Conner is an injury-prone, touchdown-dependent play. At his ADP, there are higher ceiling players available.

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