Greetings again! In an effort to keep these articles fresh throughout the season, we’ll be mixing up the format here and there. Entering Week 5 let’s talk about some young wide receivers moving up the rankings, and how legit their early success has been.
Remember to reach out with questions on Twitter (@toomuchtuma) anytime.
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1. Will the Bengals’ pass volume hurt Ja’Marr Chase and company?
We discussed the possibility of Chase experiencing some statistical regression in last week’s article, but the 21-year-old went on to have another productive game. He was held out of the end zone for the first time this season yet still managed to haul in 6-of-9 targets for 77 yards. The nine targets represent a new career-high for Chase, which is noteworthy because we expected this team to be a lot more pass-heavy entering ’21. However, through four games, the Bengals rank 31st in plays per minute (per PFF). The team has clearly put an emphasis on slowing things down, utilizing Joe Mixon early and often, and protecting Joe Burrow‘s knee.
Trailing 14-0 against Jacksonville last Thursday night, though, the offense picked up the pace. During that game, Burrow was 14-of-16 for 153 yards and a TD in the empty formation. This is the version of Cincinnati’s offense we anticipated. Perhaps it’s the version they still want to be. Joe Mixon (ankle) is uncertain for Week 5 against the Packers. His absence could lead to the target increase we need for Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd to all pay off their ADPs. Note that Higgins (shoulder) is expected back against Green Bay. Once again, the Bengals’ O is a storyline to monitor.
2. Can Cooper Kupp keep it up?
Kupp has arguably been the biggest fantasy football storyline through four games. He has quite literally been the best draft-day value, likely leading anyone who believed in him to strong starts in the standings come October. The question now becomes is Kupp’s production sustainable, or is this a sell-high situation? Luckily for fantasy managers, the utilization is promising.
Kupp caught just five passes for 64 yards in Week 4, but he actually saw a season-high 13 targets in this one. Additionally, his routes, target share, ADOT, and air yards share all remained elite – right in line with where they were in Weeks 1-3.
The most likely outcome moving forward is that Kupp won’t go as consistently nuclear as he did during those opening three games. That being said, 5-64-0 should be viewed as his floor. He’s simply seeing too much work not to function as an elite WR1 in fantasy. Flip him for a Stefon Diggs or Davante Adams if you can, but otherwise, just enjoy the ride on this one.
Cooper Kupp target shares:
Week 1: 38%
Week 2: 38%
Week 3: 32%
Week 4: 33%For perspective, Davante Adams handled a league-high 34% target share when active during the 2020 regular season.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) October 4, 2021
3. Is D.J. Moore a top-six fantasy wide receiver?
Probably. Moore has been utilized as a legitimate alpha through four games, hogging 30% of the team’s targets and 39% of the air yards share. Robby Anderson was a lot more involved in Week 4 against Dallas, but he had a big-time squeaky wheel narrative factoring in. There’s no reason to think that Anderson will take away a meaningful number of opportunities from Moore moving forward.
The most meaningful takeaway from Moore’s campaign thus far has been the number of times he has scored, however. Moore has always been a strong route runner who gained yards for fantasy managers. Unfortunately, he was held to just four TDs in both 2019 and 2020. Through four weeks he has already found the end zone three times. Consider him an elite WR1 on Joe Brady’s offense moving forward.
4. Is Deebo Samuel a WR1?
Nearly. I said earlier that Kupp was the best draft-day value in fantasy this year. San Francisco’s No. 1 wideout is challenging him for that honor, though. Samuel erupted for a 8-156-2 line in Week 4 against the Seahawks. He now leads the NFL with 490 receiving yards, and it doesn’t appear as if his usage will change moving forward.
Brandon Aiyuk is a factor, yes, but his utilization harshly regressed in Week 4. After running a route on 90% of the 49ers’ drop backs in Week 3, Aiyuk was back down to 68% against Seattle. Worse, the offense isn’t even targeting him on the routes he does run. Samuel, meanwhile, is the undisputed alpha for Kyle Shanahan these days. The 25-year-old is registering a 33% target share and a 36% air yards share through four games. That sounds like a WR1 to me.
Deebo Samuel is IN! @49ers cut the lead to 7 with 1:20 left.
?: #SEAvsSF on FOX
?: NFL app pic.twitter.com/bLkN83rglr— NFL (@NFL) October 3, 2021
5. Did we miss the sell high window on Mike Williams?
This nearly wasn’t even a question. Justin Herbert overthrew Williams on a potential 80+ yard touchdown on Monday night, which obviously would’ve changed the narrative on his box score production. Nonetheless, Big Mike busted for just one catch and 11 yards against the Raiders. It appeared as if the 27-year-old was receiving a lot of defensive attention from Las Vegas. These games happen sometimes. Williams’ usage through three weeks was elite. We shouldn’t overreact, then, to a single data point. He remains a strong WR2 in all formats.
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Brendan Tuma is a featured writer at FantasyPros. To read more from Brendan, check out his archive and follow him @toomuchtuma.
