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Sweating MNF on TopProp: Week 6 Edition

by Raju Byfield | @FantasyContext | Featured Writer
Oct 18, 2021

Sunday is in the books, and the sweats have begun at TopProp Fantasy Sports. The best way to challenge your friends (or rivals) and add a new layer of competition, TopProp adds another dimension to traditional season-long fantasy leagues. Let’s take a look at our plans for Week 6. 

TopProp allows users to create bonus point-based contests between two teams within your league. There is also the option to create a contest between two teams in a public or experts league. And remember to enter the referral code ‘FantasyPros’ when you sign up for a chance to win a signed Christian McCaffrey jersey.

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The Challenge

In our FantasyPros Tags League, there are some interesting contests we can create at TopProp Fantasy Sports. With Sunday’s action wrapped up, there are still a few sweats going on in our FantasyPros Tags League. 

Another week, another set of injuries, and monster performances. We cannot talk about Week 6 without mentioning the massive fantasy outputs from players like CeeDee Lamb, Cooper Kupp, Jonathan Taylor, and Leonard Fournette. On the injury front Kareem Hunt, Kadarius Toney, T.Y. Hilton, Parris Campbell, Latavius Murray, and Terrace Marshall went down with injuries. There are a few matchup options to choose from this week, but we will focus on targeting the team that Team Koko is facing this week in The Michael Red Wolves. 

The Strategy

The Michael Red Wolves head into Monday night with two players still left to play. Both of them have been two of the very best producers at their respective positions. They had some duds on Sunday but may be feeling confident with two big outings potentially left in store. 

The strategy behind this particular week’s strategy is to exploit those (including The Michael Red Wolves) who feel Cole Beasley has lost fantasy relevance and that Derrick Henry will have a down game due to facing one of the best teams in the league and being susceptible to gamescript.

Team Koko is feeling dominant and comes into Monday with a healthy 136.3 points vs. The Michael Red Wolves, currently sits at 109.0. When we add the 37 bonus points, the score becomes 146.0-136.3 in favor of the Red Wolves. It is important to note that Zach Ertz was not scored as a member of the Philadelphia Eagles for Week 6 in TopProp’s calculation, but with the update scheduled for tomorrow, it will not affect the contest. As seen in the photo above, it will be Derrick Henry and Cole Beasley vs. Dawson Knox and Buffalo D/ST. 

Derrick Henry has been dominant since his poor showing in Week 1. He is averaging 128 rushing yards per game on the season, and in a development very few saw coming, he has averaged 2.8 receptions for 25 receiving yards per game (both career highs). He has seven rushing touchdowns in five games and has scored three times twice. He has three games with over 24 fantasy points, including one with 44. The hope is that The Michael Red Wolves will feel that negative gamescript will affect Henry’s production while forgetting that the Titans war horse managed two rushing touchdowns last season despite mustering just 57 yards on the ground in the COVID game that the Titans were missing 10+ players in. Henry should be better today, and the new receiving upside should also help along with his fantasy points. 

Cole Beasley has been disastrous over the past couple of weeks. He has seen 13 targets twice this season but has seen just two targets in each of the last two weeks. That, of course, led to depressed production, as he generated just 3.6 fantasy points in total over the last two weeks. Furthermore, he appears to have fallen to fourth at best in the target pecking order and has been fifth in Week 4 and Week 5. All in all, Beasley has been a disappointment this season, and many may think that trend will continue this week–that’s what we are counting on. The Tennessee Titans have been a sieve to enemy wideouts in 2021, surrendering the most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Yes, he will need to get targets to produce, but despite the wild variance and Josh Allen preferring the likes of Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Dawson Knox, and whoever is in at running back, as mentioned above, Beasley has seen a monstrous 13 targets twice in five games. 

Dawson Knox has been excellent so far and is enjoying his breakout campaign. He is averaging 3.6 receptions for 52.2 receptions yards and one touchdown on the season but has really picked it up over the last two games. Knox has put up 18.6 fantasy points over the last two weeks and has become a household name in fantasy circles. However, he averaged just 9.3 fantasy points the previous three weeks and has seen five or fewer targets in four of five weeks. Knox has scored at least one touchdown in four straight weeks, but as his 3.6 receptions for 52.2 receiving yard average can attest to, he is somewhat touchdown-dependent. Banking on a score is always a tough ask. 

Buffalo D/ST has three games of 17 or more fantasy points and two over 22. However, they averaged just 4.5 fantasy points in the other two contests, highlighting an exploitable floor. The Bills defense is much improved, especially against the pass, but keeping Derrick Henry in check is always a tall task without the aid of gamescript. Their defensive line has become a strength, but they still do not have the type of run stoppers to make Henry’s life difficult, especially if they cannot load the box due to the presence of A.J. Brown and the return of Julio Jones

The Play: Riding with Derrick Henry during his scorching play and hoping Cole Beasley gets it going against the most fantasy-friendly pass defense in the league.

The Fade: The thought process that Derrick Henry sees his fantasy production suppressed due to gamescript. 

The Prediction: Derrick Henry and Cole Beasley outscore Dawson Knox and Buffalo D/ST by 10.4 points – bringing Team Koko into the winner’s circle for Monday night. 

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.

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