Greetings, friends, and welcome to Week 17 of the DFS Pricing Exploitation series. Every week in this space, we’ll take a look at pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel and identify our favorite quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends based on how we can best take advantage of recent changes to those prices.
We’re almost to the end of the regular season, although things have certainly gotten interesting over the last few weeks. There are COVID outbreaks all over the country, and all of the major sports are being affected. However, the NFL just announced new COVID protocols that allow even unvaccinated players to return five days after testing positive without even having to test negative as long as they show “improving” symptoms. What does that actually mean? No idea. But it does mean that many players who test positive for COVID during the week will still be able to play on Sunday now.
Have questions or just want to talk football or DFS? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
Create Optimal lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool 
Quarterbacks
Greetings, friends, and welcome to Week 17 of the DFS Pricing Exploitation series. Every week in this space, we’ll take a look at pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel and identify our favorite quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends based on how we can best take advantage of recent changes to those prices.
We’re almost to the end of the regular season, although things have certainly gotten interesting over the last few weeks. There are COVID outbreaks all over the country, and all of the major sports are being affected. However, the NFL just announced new COVID protocols that allow even unvaccinated players to return five days after testing positive without even having to test negative as long as they show “improving” symptoms. What does that actually mean? No idea. But it does mean that many players who test positive for COVID during the week will still be able to play on Sunday now.
Have questions or just want to talk football or DFS? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
Create Optimal lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Quarterbacks
FanDuel
Matthew Stafford (LAR - QB) vs. BAL, $7,600 (-$300)
Matthew Stafford's price is down $300 after a lackluster performance against the Vikings last week, but he was coming off four consecutive QB1 performances heading into that game. On FanDuel this week, he's QB10 at $7,600. That isn't the biggest discount in the world, but QB is arguably the most important position to get right in DFS, and Stafford is a discount with a favorable matchup against a Ravens defense that is allowing a ton of points to opposing quarterbacks.
DraftKings
Trey Lance (SF - QB) vs. HOU, $4,800 ($0)
Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to miss this week's game against the Texans, putting Trey Lance in line to make his first start since Week 5. Garoppolo hasn't officially been ruled out yet, so you'll have to keep an eye on his status as the week goes on. But if he's out and Lance gets the start, you can get a free square with QB1 upside on DraftKings. Lance is priced at $4,800, which is essentially their lowest price for active quarterbacks. His running ability provides a solid floor, and the matchup combined with San Francisco's weapons provides excellent upside.
Running Backs
FanDuel
Boston Scott (PHI - RB) vs. WAS, $6,000 (+$500)
Miles Sanders is out this week with a broken bone in his hand. Jordan Howard is questionable after suffering a stinger, but my guess is that Howard either misses this game or has a reduced role. A stinger may sound minor, but Howard missed a substantial chunk of time with a similar injury back in 2019. Enter Boston Scott, who carried the ball 12 times for 41 yards and a touchdown after replacing Sanders and Howard on Sunday. The Eagles have one of the best offensive lines and rushing attacks in the NFL, and Scott has proven to be serviceable when called on in the past. And because of the uncertainty surrounding Howard (and possibly even Sanders at the time the salaries locked), Scott is only RB31 in terms of price on FanDuel.
DraftKings
David Montgomery (CHI - RB) vs. NYG, $6,500 (+$800)
David Montgomery's touches per game since the Week 10 bye week, from Week 11 through Week 16: 15, 20, 29, 16, 23, 28. Follow the volume, as the kids say. Montgomery has at least 17 carries in four of his last five games and at least six targets in the passing game in four consecutive games. Chicago hasn't exactly been consistent on offense this season, but they are consistently utilizing Montgomery in the second half of the season now that he's healthy. He's RB14 on DraftKings this week, but I have him projected as a Top 5 running back based on his expected volume and the matchup against the Giants.
Wide Receivers
FanDuel
Tee Higgins (CIN - WR) vs. KC, $7,000 (+$500)
I wrote this about Tee Higgins in this space last week:
Tee Higgins was shut down by a tough Denver defense last week, and his WR29 price tag on the FanDuel full slate reflects that. But he was WR4 and WR3 overall in Week 12 and 13, respectively, and our model has him projected for WR1 numbers against a Baltimore defense that struggles against opposing wideouts. The production has been inconsistent this season, but this is an ideal low price/high ceiling combination to target.
And guess what? He went out and caught 12 passes for 194 yards and two touchdowns to finish as the WR1 overall. This week, in what very well could be a shootout, he is priced as the WR14 on FanDuel.
DraftKings
Antonio Brown (TB - WR) vs. NYJ, $6,100 (+$1,200)
Tampa Bay is banged up on offense right now. Antonio Brown returned last week and caught 10 of his 15 targets for 101 yards. In Week 17, his price is up $1,200, but he's still just the WR22 on DraftKings despite a favorable matchup against the New York Jets. I have him projected for easy WR1 production, so this WR22 price is an easy decision for me. I'll have him in multiple lineups this weekend.
Tight Ends
FanDuel
Zach Ertz (ARI - TE) vs. DAL, $5,500 (-$300)
The tight end position has felt gross in DFS for several weeks now. Every week, this is the hardest position for me to find value (at least obviously or substantial value). So, I tend to stick to the low-end TE1 tier where I know I can get solid production at a slight discount. Over the last few weeks, FanDuel has been kind enough to price Zach Ertz too low even with DeAndre Hopkins out. This week, Ertz is TE13 on FanDuel and is down $300 despite catching 14 of his 24 targets for 128 yards over his last two games.
DraftKings
Rob Gronkowski (TB - TE) vs. NYJ, $6,200 ($0)
The Rob Gronkowski writeup is really just a combination of the Antonio Brown and Zach Ertz writeups above. The tight end position has been gross in DFS lately, and the Bucs will be without their top two pass catchers (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin). Gronk only received two targets last week, but he had received at least eight targets in five consecutive games come into Week 16. That volume plus his frequent usage in the red zone make him an ideal tight end target again this week.
Want to keep the conversation going or just have a question? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.
