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Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers SwStr% (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers SwStr% (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

The fantasy baseball ranking season is in full swing. For me, that typically starts with searching advanced stats leaderboards. Advanced statistics are often more predictive than traditional box score statistics. Thus, they’re an excellent jumping-off point. This series will dive into a variety of my favorite advanced metrics. However, I must caution that no statistic in isolation is the secret sauce for unearthing a hidden gem or burgeoning stud. Instead, they are a piece of the puzzle and best viewed through that lens, using other statistics in conjunction with them to formulate a well-rounded opinion of the fantasy value of players.

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Swinging-Strike Percentage

Swinging-strike percentage (SwStr%) is a measure of pitches hitters swing and miss at divided by total pitches thrown by a pitcher. According to FanGraphs, the 2021 average swinging-strike rate was 11.2%, down a smidge from 11.3% in 2020. However, the average rate in 2019 was 11.1%. Thus, the league average has hovered in the same range for multiple seasons.

Out of 39 qualified starting pitchers in 2021, 24 pitchers had a swinging-strike rate above the league average, two were precisely at the league average, and 13 fell short of the league average. So, if you’re hunting for strikeouts in fantasy baseball leagues, seeking out the game’s above-average bat-missers is an excellent starting point. Below is a table featuring the top-20 qualified pitchers in swinging-strike percentage. Additionally, there’s another section for starting pitchers that didn’t reach the innings limit needed to be a qualified pitcher.

2021 Qualified Starters SwStr% Leaders

Unsurprisingly, the table above is jam-packed with the top strikeout artists among qualified pitchers. Quantifying that statement, out of 22 pitchers that were in the top 20 for swinging-strike rate (check the upper right-hand corner of the table and click the next page button to see the other two players that made this list), only one, Marcus Stroman, was outside the top-25 qualified starting pitchers in strikeout rate. Moreover, last year, the league average strikeout rate was 23.2%, and Stroman was also the only pitcher in the top-20 qualified pitchers in swinging-strike rate that didn't eclipse the league average strikeout rate.

Further, Corbin Burnes and Max Scherzer were first and second in swinging-strike rate and sported an identical rank in strikeout rate. So, again, if you're hunting for strikeouts, this is a great leaderboard to peruse for options. Yes, called-strikes-plus-whiff percentage (CSW%) -- which I previously discussed -- is the better category. Regardless, breaking that down into its components, swinging-strikes and called strikes, the former is the better option for locating strikeouts. I'll highlight called-strike rate soon. As a spoiler alert, the top of that leaderboard includes quite a few high-strikeout pitchers. However, a few pitchers- namely the tippy top of the leaderboard- aren't among the top strikeout hurlers.

I'm a believer in all of the players in the table above helping fantasy baseball gamers in 2022 in strikeouts, including the below-average strikeout-rate outlier Stroman. Looking under the hood, last year's 11.1 SwStr% was a new career-high, following a missed 2020 season that he opted out of. Typically, I'd be skeptical of a career-high rate sticking.

However, Stroman drastically altered his pitch mix. He threw his fastball at the second-lowest rate of his career, used his changeup at by far the highest rate of his career, and cranked up his combined usage of his slider and cutter to a new career-high rate at the expense of his curve, which he threw at a career-low 2.3% clip. Stroman's slider was his best bat-missing offering, with a 16.7 SwStr%, followed by his changeup (16.1%), and his cutter was fourth (14.1%). As a result, Stroman's swinging-strike rate surge looks repeatable. In addition, as he gets more acclimated to his new pitch mix and possibly tweaks his sequencing, it is possible his strikeout rate surges with his newfound ability to miss bats at an above-average clip.

Noteworthy Non-Qualified Starting Pitchers in 2021

Jacob deGrom was unreal when he pitched last year. Sadly, his health is the concern with selecting him this year. The same can be said for pitchers like Clayton Kershaw and Carlos Rodon, as both southpaws weren't offered qualifying offers by their clubs. Kershaw dealt with a forearm issue at the end of last year, and Rodon battled shoulder fatigue down the stretch. I'm anxiously awaiting the end of the lockout and seeing what type of contracts these two sign. If either or both are stuck accepting one-year, incentive-laden contracts, that will be a glaring red flag that steers me away from touching either in fantasy baseball this year. Otherwise, their ability to generate empty swings makes them excellent bets to pile up strikeouts in bunches again this year.

Two players who have positively captured my attention from the table are Patrick Sandoval and Shane McClanahan -- the latter's swinging-strike rate is specifically for his starts, excluding his relief appearances. I love both lefties this season and will rank them ahead of my peers in the Expert Consensus Rankings. Finally, Josiah Gray is an intriguing late-round dart throw, carrying an Average Draft Position of only 262.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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