Terry McLaurin Career Production
*Based on PPR scoring
Career Contextualization
Terry McLaurin was a third-round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, selected 76th overall by the Washington Commanders. He was the 12th wide receiver drafted behind a few star players like A.J. Brown (51st overall) and D.K. Metcalf (64th). However, several busts were picked before McLaurin, including N'Keal Harry (32nd), JJ Arcega-Whiteside (57th), and Jalen Hurd (67th).
McLaurin has been the No. 1 wide receiver for Washington since getting drafted. He has at least 919 receiving yards every year of his career, going over the 1,000-yard mark in back-to-back seasons. But, more importantly, McLaurin has consistently produced for fantasy owners despite a merry-go-round at the quarterback position.
In his three-year career, McLaurin has played with eight different starting quarterbacks. Taylor Heinicke leads the way with 15 starts, followed by Dwayne Haskins with 13, Case Keenum with eight, and Alex Smith with six. McLaurin has also played at least one game with Kyle Allen, Colt McCoy, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Garrett Gilbert. So if anyone ever claims McLaurin is overrated, show them the list of quarterbacks he has played alongside.
Despite the disasters at quarterback, McLaurin has consistently been a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 for fantasy owners. Given the quarterbacks he's played with, it isn't surprising that McLaurin has only 16 touchdowns in 46 career games. His 7.2 percent touchdown rate for his career is disappointing. However, things are looking up for McLaurin now that Carson Wentz is in town.
Current Situation
The Commanders lack playmakers. Last year, Washington signed Curtis Samuel to a three-year deal worth $34.5 million in free agency. However, he played only 84 offensive snaps in five games last season and has an injury history. Behind him on the depth chart are Dyami Brown, Cam Sims, Dax Milne, Kelvin Harmon, Antonio Gandy-Golden, and Marken Michel. These six receivers have 101 career receptions combined. Between Samuel's injury history and the lack of depth, it's not surprising to see the Commanders linked to picking a wide receiver with their first-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Adding a first-round wide receiver like Drake London or Chris Olave will impact his projected target share next year. However, it will also keep defenses from double-teaming McLaurin consistently. As a result, he should maintain WR2 value for fantasy owners even with a dip in targets. According to PlayerProfiler, McLaurin had 209 total route wins last season, ranking 17th among wide receivers. So while Washington will likely add a wide receiver early in the draft, McLaurin's ability to win thanks to his route running will keep him fantasy relevant.
General Prediction for 2022 and Rest of Career
While he is only heading into his fourth season in the NFL, McLaurin is already 26-years-old. He will turn 27-years-old in mid-September, and surprisingly, he is just under two years younger than Brandin Cooks. Keep in mind that Cooks is entering his ninth year in the NFL and has been traded three times in his career. However, McLaurin's age should alarm his fantasy owners.
Everyone tends to panic when their wide receivers turn 30-years-old, which McLaurin won't do till the 2025 season. However, wide receivers with limited injury history remain productive until their 32 or 33 age season. Therefore, McLaurin has another six to seven years of solid protection left in his career, provided he doesn't suffer a severe injury.
The main concern with McLaurin is his contract situation. He is entering the final year of his rookie deal and wants a long-term extension in Washington. However, McLaurin and his agent are not in a rush to sign an extension.
After Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, and Christian Kirk all signed massive new deals this offseason, the price tag for wide receivers has gone through the roof. Currently, there is a waiting war between four wide receivers on who will sign an extension first.
Metcalf, Samuel, and Brown are like McLaurin and entering the final year of their rookie contracts. All three are represented by CAA Sports, while McLaurin is represented by Exclusive Sports Group, according to Spotrac. Therefore, all four wide receivers have an argument as to why they should be the highest-paid of the bunch. Whoever holds out the longest will likely end up with the highest-paid extension. Therefore, fantasy owners shouldn't expect McLaurin to sign a long-term deal with Washington anytime soon.
However, the Commanders are in the driver's seat with McLaurin's extension talks. He is under contract for the 2022 season. Then the team can realistically place the franchise tag on McLaurin for another two years, thus keeping him under team control through the 2024 season. Yet, I don't believe it will come to that despite Washington's awful contract negotiations with Kirk Cousins a few years ago.
Commander fans and fantasy football managers should expect McLaurin in Washington for the foreseeable future. The team values him and believes he is their best player on offense and wants to pay him as such. It might not happen until August or even next offseason. However, McLaurin likely spends the next several years of his career wearing burgundy and gold.
Meanwhile, Wentz hasn't been the best quarterback over the past few years. However, he is by far the best quarterback McLaurin has ever had on the team. Last year, Wentz threw 27 touchdowns, tied for the second-most in his career. Six went to the No. 1 wide receiver on the Indianapolis Colts, Michael Pittman. The second-year receiver had a productive year with Wentz throwing him the ball, finishing as the WR17, averaging 14 PPR fantasy points per game.
Looking at Wentz's entire career, he has never played with a wide receiver on McLaurin's level. Wentz's No. 1 wide receiver has averaged 5.7 receiving touchdowns per year in his career. Even during his MVP level year in 2017, Wentz's No. 1 wide receiver was Alshon Jeffery. Wentz threw 33 touchdowns that season, a career-high, with nine going to Jeffery. The top touchdown wide receivers in his career include Pittman, Jeffery, Greg Ward, and Jordan Matthews. Playing with McLaurin will be a massive upgrade for Wentz. Furthermore, Wentz has a 4.7 percent touchdown rate in his career. That number should only improve in Washington with McLaurin.
While the Commanders will likely add a rookie with their first-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, McLaurin remains the No. 1 wide receiver on the team and the focal point of the passing attack. McLaurin finished in the top-20 wide receivers in targets (131), target share (24.5 percent), routes run (513), and route participation (93.3 percent) last season. Even if Wentz fails in Washington, McLaurin has proven he is quarterback-proof.
Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Between the ongoing contract negations, the change at quarterback, and poor touchdowns production, what should fantasy owners do with McLaurin? The answer is to hold or buy.
I would rather have McLaurin over any wide receiver in this draft class before the draft. However, things can change depending on where the draft prospects land. If you can trade a mid-first-round pick in 1QB leagues or a late first-round pick in SuperFlex leagues for McLaurin, you'll be getting a steal of a deal.
While unlikely, Washington could address a need on defense in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, giving McLaurin even more upside for next season. Regardless of who they add in the draft, McLaurin is a mid WR2 with low-end WR1 upside for next season and moving forward.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
