It should be a fun day for some basketball! Even though we only have a three-game slate in the association, the Final Four is finally here, and it shouldn’t disappoint. That UNC vs. Duke matchup is almost as if it was pulled right out of a storybook and will be one of the most highly anticipated games ever in the tournament. Man, I can’t wait! As excited as I am for some college hoops tonight, though, we still have a few NBA games to dissect, so let’s dive right in.
The Primer is a first look article filled with all the information you need to help get your lineups rolling. We’ll begin with the schedule and odds to highlight which game environments stand out. We follow that up with the injury report, an essential part of any DFS player’s daily process. Then we shed light on some of our top plays of the slate, including core building blocks, GPP candidates, cash game considerations, and salary relief targets. Finally, we’ll always wrap up with our advantageous pricing segment, which uncovers price discrepancies between FanDuel and DraftKings.
So without further adieu, let’s jump into another edition of the NBA DFS Primer brought to you by FantasyPros.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Schedule and Odds
- BKN @ ATL (+2.5) O/U: 241.5
- MIA @ CHI (+2.5) O/U: 220.5
- UTA @ GS (+2) O/U: 219.5
Injury Report
- Seth Curry (ankle) questionable
- Bruce Brown (illness) questionable
- Trae Young (groin) probable
- Lou Williams (ankle, back) probable
- Jalen Johnson (concussion) OUT
- Max Strus (shoulder) questionable
- Gabe Vincent (toe) questionable
- Caleb Martin (calf) questionable
- Zach LaVine (knee) probable
- Hassan Whiteside (foot) questionable
The injury report can change at any minute, and all player statuses are subject to change whether they’re on the injury report or not. Paying attention to as much news as possible is crucial to long-term success in DFS. It can also give you a severe leg up on anyone in the field who fails to do so. Once the later game information becomes available, be sure to take advantage of late swapping. Late swap allows you to get off the chalk and plug-in value plays that may not have been expected or get to a high upside play in an attempt to take one last run at the top of the leaderboard. Keeping up with all the news and information can be a lot to manage, but it’s essential.
Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros
Core Plays
DeMar DeRozan (PF/SF/SG – CHI): $8,600 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
After what some would consider a shooting slump, DeMar has found his sweet mid-range stroke again. Over the past three games, he has averaged 39.6 points and 56.6 fantasy points. He doesn’t draw the best of matchups tonight going up against the Miami Heat, but their defense hasn’t nearly been as stout recently as it was for the majority of the season. Regardless of the defense, when DeRo is this locked in, he will get his. Coming off a masterful 50 point performance, I look for DeMar DeRozan to continue his lights-out shooting in a pivotal Eastern Conference matchup that holds playoff implications.
Kevin Durant (SF/PF – BKN): $11,000 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
Speaking of playoff implications, every game for the Brooklyn Nets is crucial for their final seeding. The Nets are currently sitting in eighth place in the Eastern Conference with a record of 40-37. That puts them two games behind the Cleveland Cavaliers for that seventh seed, and with the injury bug hitting the Cavs, the Nets have a realistic chance to move up in the standings. A large part of their final push will be Kevin Durant, who looks healthy and is playing tremendous basketball. In his past seven games, he has been a stud going for 50 or more fantasy points in six of them with multiple 60 point performances and a 70 point outing baked in, as well. With the highest implied total on the slate at 241, this will be an excellent game to target for DFS, and expect Kevin Durant to have a huge night against the porous Atlanta Hawks defense.
Cash Game Considerations
Jordan Poole (PG – GSW): $7,200 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
Jordan Poole has stepped in for the injured Steph Curry and has played the best basketball of his young career. Poole has had 15 straight games with 20 or more points, finding his name next to greats like Wilt Chamberlain, Michael Jordan, Kevin Durant, and his teammate Steph Curry. In my opinion, his $7,200 price tag on DraftKings is still too cheap for the production Poole is providing. Not only is he scoring the ball, but he’s also dropping dimes with 31 assists in the last five games. Poole and the Warriors will face off against a Jazz team tonight who have been declining defensively. Utah has given up more than 110 points to their opponents in six of their last seven games. With Curry off the floor, Poole has a usage rate of 29.7%, giving him one of the safest floors in DFS right now. I will continue to ride Jordan Poole until the wheels fall off.
Rudy Gobert (C – UTA): $7,600 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
I will also continue to recommend Rudy Gobert for cash games because of the consistent, safe floor he offers for his investors. I think he’s priced appropriately on FanDuel, but there’s still a good amount of meat left on the bone over at DraftKings. Gobert is averaging 39.32 DK points in the last 10 games, and that number would be even higher if it weren’t for an outlier game where he ended with just 17 fantasy points. That number is good for five times the return on investment. The Jazz will now face off against a Warriors team that doesn’t have the size to limit Gobert down low. So expect another double-double and solid fantasy performance from the Utah big man again tonight.
GPP Targets
Trae Young (PG – ATL): $10,600 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
I honestly can’t wait for this game. It has the highest implied total on the slate and three of the premier scorers in the NBA. Not only is it going to be exciting to watch, but it should be a fantasy goldmine and the most popular game to target for DFS. Stacking this game in tournaments is a viable strategy tonight. One of the key pieces to stacks will be Trae Young, who should be one of the highest scorers on the slate. Young has been lights out of late, shooting over 50% from the field in five of his last six games. He’ll now face a Brooklyn defense with an OPRK of 24th on DraftKings. He’s also getting his teammates involved with a whopping 48 assists in his last four outings. You’re going to want pieces from this matchup, as I expect we’ll see multiple of them end up in the optimal lineup. Building around Trae Young will be a popular option, and for good reasons, as you can differentiate your lineup from the rest of the field elsewhere.
Bojan Bogdanovic (SF/PF – UTA): $5,100 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Bogdan didn’t have the most efficient outing in his first game back from injury. He ended the game with just 11 points, three rebounds, and five assists in only 22 minutes on the floor. I expect the Jazz to increase his minutes tonight and would almost guarantee he doesn’t go just one of six from behind the arc again or shoot an inefficient four for eleven from the field. Typically, Bojan has one of the safest floors in DFS, and I expect him to get back to form in his second game. On a small three-game slate, you’re going to want to find ways to get different and find plays with upside at a low roster percentage. Bojan fits the bill, and if he can get back form, he could be a sneaky good GPP play.
Value Plays
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (SF/SG – ATL): $3,400 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
This isn’t an exciting play, that’s for sure, and there are bound to be better plays that open up, but on a three-game slate, the value will be slim. TLC has been thrust into the starting five for the Hawks due to injuries and has played reasonably well. He’s scored 20 or more DraftKings points in the last three games and has seen 23 or more minutes. At just $3,400 in a game that should have plenty of scoring, TLC should be able to produce five times or more the ROI once again. Don’t forget about the revenge narrative, either.
Draymond Green (PF/C – GSW): $5,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Draymond saw the 31 minutes last game against the Suns, the most he has played since returning from injury. In that game, he ended with eight points, ten rebounds, and seven assists, which resulted in 39.0 DK points. Before his injury, we saw Draymond consistently priced above $7,500. If he’s going to get back to seeing his usually 30 plus minutes, then $5,600 is too cheap. Take advantage of the value now because if Draymond strings a couple more performances together like, he had against the Suns, then there’s no doubt we’re going to see a drastic price increase.
Advantageous Pricing
- Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (SF/SG – ATL): $3,400 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
- Trae Young (PG – ATL): $10,600 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
- Rudy Gobert (C – UTA): $7,600 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
- Jordan Poole (PG – GSW): $7,200 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
- Kyrie Irving (PG – BKN): $10,300 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
- Max Strus (SG – MIA): $3,700 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
- Juancho Hernangomez (PF/C – UTA): $3,600 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
- Onyeka Okongwu (C – ATL): $3,800 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
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Evan Ritter is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Evan, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter.