Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL): (ECR 41, TE3)
Pitts is coming off a historic rookie season after finishing with 1026 yards on 68 catches in 17 games in 2021, finishing as the TE7 in Half-PPR formats. On top of this, he only scored one TD the entire season, and many fantasy analysts expect Pitts to have some positive touchdown regression in 2022 as well as an overall breakout year in his second season with the Falcons.
However, many analysts are disregarding how poor his situation is in Atlanta. The Falcons brought in former second-overall pick QB Marcus Mariota (QB – ATL) from the Raiders to reunite him with his former offensive coordinator from the Titans, Arthur Smith. However, with the Falcons not signing any receivers in Free Agency while also losing Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL) to a year-long suspension and Russell Gage (WR – TB) to the Buccaneers, the only weapons the team seems to have are Pitts and veteran breakout RB Cordarrelle Patterson (WR,RB – TB).
While many experts may argue that this will lead to Pitts potentially seeing more volume in this offense, there is the potential that Atlanta develops into a run-heavy team with dual-threat QB Marcus Mariota at the helm. Arthur Smith has been known to have a run-heavy approach in his years as the Titans’ Offensive Coordinator, and this could very well end up the case if the Falcons don’t acquire or draft more weapons this off-season. If this is the case, it will be very difficult for Pitts to live up to his TE3 ranking, even if his touchdown numbers increase in 2022.
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA) (ECR 21, WR9)
There is no question that Hill is one of the most, if not the most, talented wide receivers in the entire league. However, there is no doubt that switching from Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) to Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA) throwing him the football is a huge downgrade in Tyreek’s fantasy ceiling in 2022. Mahomes has been one of the best QBs ever since stepping into the starting role for the Chiefs, and this has helped Hill and Travis Kelce (TE – KC) become two of the most elite assets in fantasy football. Meanwhile, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has not been the most impressive QB at producing multiple elite receivers in his short career in Miami.
In 2021, Tua only threw for 204 yards per game in 13 games played in 2021, which was 29th amongst all quarterbacks. The former Alabama QB has also not been known for airing the ball out deep, which Hill excelled at in Kansas City with Mahomes throwing him the football. Now in Miami, Hill is competing for targets with breakout rookie Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA) and tight end Mike Gesicki (TE – MIA). These two weapons combined for 232 targets and 42.65% target share in 2021 on top of 7 touchdowns.
Additionally, the Dolphins brought in former 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, who led a run-heavy attack for San Francisco in 2021. The 49ers ran the sixth-most rushing plays in 2021 with 428, and this rushing attack is expected to continue in Miami after the team brought in former Cardinals RB Chase Edmonds (RB – MIA) and former 49ers RB Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA). Myles Gaskin (RB – MIA) is also expected to be worked into the mix. McDaniel has also been known for spreading work into all of his offensive weapons, and it will be difficult for Hill to replicate his elite target share and production in Miami.
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