Season to season, it’s always tricky to navigate how players will perform based on last year’s numbers. It’s an inexact science, to say the least. So I like to look for players who I think are in line for a drop in production, either because they changed teams or their teams changed around them. The following are eight players who had over 100 targets in 2021, but I think their target share will fall in 2022.
Davante Adams (WR – LV)
2021 Targets: 169 (30% share)
First up is Adams, who was traded from the Green Bay Packers to the Las Vegas Raiders. Due to the lack of alternative options, he got a massive 30% target share with Aaron Rodgers in 2021. I don’t know exactly what to expect with him on the Raiders, but it’s hard to predict that he’ll see a 30% target share again this year. He’s playing with his college quarterback Derek Carr, but he also has a lot of competition that he didn’t have last year. Darren Waller with 15% and Hunter Renfrow at 22% both earned their fair share of targets with Carr last year. I expect them to earn similar shares this year, so predicting Adams to fall in terms of his target share doesn’t seem that surprising.
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)
2021 Targets: 159 (25% share)
Hill is another player who switched teams from 2021 to 2022. Last year, he played with Patrick Mahomes on a Chiefs offense that was second in pass attempts in the league with 675. Now he gets to play with Tua Tagovailoa. That’s quite a difference. He joins Jaylen Waddle, who got 23% of the Dolphins’ targets last year, and Mike Gesicki, who got 19% himself. It’s not hard to imagine that all three see a slight drop in their targets this year, but I think Hill sees the more significant difference. Waddle developed a rapport with Tua that Hill will have to learn, so I wouldn’t be shocked if Hill gets off to a slow start which could lower his overall numbers.
Marquise Brown (WR – ARI)
2021 Targets: 146 (25% share)
Contrary to a lot of the narratives out there, Baltimore was ninth in pass attempts in 2021 with 611. Brown was second on the team in targets behind Mark Andrews, who saw 153 targets, a 26% share. But Brown isn’t with the Ravens anymore. He was traded to the Arizona Cardinals during the draft. As I’ve mentioned already, a player changing teams is an obvious candidate to see their target share fall. Brown joins a Cardinals team who threw 591 attempts in 2021, 18th in the NFL. It’s a small gap, but given Brown’s new role with a new QB in Kyler Murray, I am fully expecting his target share and overall stats to take a downturn in 2022.
Mike Williams (WR – LAC)
2021 Targets: 129 (20% share)
Williams is a conundrum in fantasy. He started the season very hot, seeing nine or more targets in four of the first five games. In the 11 games that followed, he only saw nine or more targets twice in Weeks 14 and 17. It’s hard to imagine him falling off of a cliff, but I think that the team as a whole will look a little different this year. The Chargers added a bruising style running back in the draft in Isaiah Spiller, but they didn’t do much else to bolster their receiving group. That being said, I don’t expect them to be third in pass attempts again after throwing a whopping 674 passes last year. Williams may see another 20% target share year, but with his inconsistency, it’s hard to predict much of anything with him with any certainty. I’m just playing the odds here, assuming he’ll see a downturn in 2022, but it’s anyone’s guess.
DK Metcalf (WR – SEA)
2021 Targets: 129 (27% share)
Another player who stayed on the same team is Metcalf, but his situation changed much more than most on this list. In 2021 he was catching passes from Russell Wilson, who was traded to Denver for current Seahawks QB Drew Lock. The team may make another trade or sign someone from free agency, but no matter who it is, the Seahawks’ offense will not be as prolific as they were with Wilson cooking under center. This should translate to a much more conservative game plan, translating to a lower target share for Metcalf. The Seahawks were already 31st in pass attempts in 2021, so any decline is bad news for a player like Metcalf. His 27% share in 2021 is a high bar to pass this year, even if the team’s overall volume stays around the same. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Metcalf land more around the 20% range this season.
Jakobi Meyers (WR – NE)
2021 Targets: 126 (24% share)
Meyers’ 2021 season was a terrific story, both for the NFL and for fantasy. First, he was a relatively unknown player in August and went largely undrafted in most fantasy leagues. However, his 126 targets helped him finish as the 22nd most targeted receiver for the year. Second on his team was Hunter Henry, who had 51 fewer targets. Meyers was essentially the best offensive weapon the Patriots had last year, and his 24% share shows that. However, it’s tough for me to project him getting a larger share of an already small pie in 2022. The Patriots attempted 535 passes in 2021, tied for 25th in the league, and I don’t exactly see that going up this year. This offseason, the team also added some receivers by drafting Tyquan Thornton and traded for Dolphins WR DeVante Parker. Both players should earn some targets of their own from Mac Jonesthis year, so I’m downgrading Meyers.
Zach Ertz (TE – ARI)
2021 Targets: 112 (19% share – 15% PHI, 20% ARI)
Technically, Ertz changed teams midseason last year, so I think he fits in both categories since his new team changed a lot around him as well. The Cardinals used Ertz more than his former team, the Eagles, did. In 2021, Ertz saw a 15% share in Philadelphia, but after being traded, his target share went up to 20%. That’s a big difference. However, the Cardinals added Marquise Brown in a trade and drafted Ertz’s likely replacement in Trey McBride. It’s entirely possible that Ertz sees his target share stay right around that 20% mark, but given his age and Arizona’s offense’s desire to spread the ball around, I’m not counting on it. The fact that DeAndre Hopkins will miss time could help Ertz a little, but I still don’t know if I see him reaching that 20% share again this season. It’s possible, but I wouldn’t bet the house on it at this point. It just feels too risky for me.
Laviska Shenault (WR – JAX)
2021 Targes: 100 (17% share)
Last but not least, we have the fantasy darling of the 2020 rookie draft — Laviska Shenault. We all had such high hopes for him but last year didn’t wow a lot of people. Sure, he saw 100 targets and a 17% share, but the Jaguars are a VERY different team than a year ago. They added Christian Kirk and Zay Jones in free agency who are both listed ahead of Shenault on the depth chart as of June. The team also gets Travis Etienne back from an Achilles tear, who should earn plenty of his own targets. Shenault’s only real chance to avoid seeing his target share fall is to be traded or cut and signed by another team, and at this point, I don’t see that happening. As long as he’s buried on the depth chart like he is now, his chances are slim to none to get 17% of the Jaguars’ targets, let alone be fantasy relevant in 2022.
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