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Overvalued Players on Fantrax (2022 Fantasy Football)

by Scott Youngson | @jscottyoungson | Featured Writer
Jun 21, 2022
Dak Prescott

Recently we reviewed the early average draft positions (ADP) on Fantrax and compared them to our expert consensus rating (ECR) in search of values (half-point PPR). Today we’ll flip the script and reveal some players who look overvalued on Fantrax. As in our ADP Values article, the players are listed below by position. Also, please remember to check back periodically as we’ll update this list throughout the summer. Note: updated on August 5, 2022

Fantasy Football Redraft Draft Kit

Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN): QB12

Cousins may have one of the best wide receivers in the league at his disposal, but after Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN), the Vikings receiving tree is pretty thin. Adam Thielen (WR – MIN) will be 32 when the season starts and is coming off ankle surgery. Irv Smith Jr. (TE – MIN), who many expect to be a big contributor this year, just had surgery on his thumb and may not be ready for Week 1. Cousins is certainly capable of delivering on his ADP – he was QB11 last season – but our experts feel it’s safer to draft him a bit later around QB 15, given his lack of upside.

Dak Prescott (QB – DAL): QB5

Dak Prescott had a solid 2021 but finished the year as QB9 on a points-per-game basis. Plus, he lost a pretty good weapon this offseason when the Cowboys traded Amari Cooper to the Browns. Say what you want about Cooper, but those 104 targets won’t be easy to replace. Prescott should still be drafted as a starter but has limited upside as he doesn’t run much anymore (despite recent comments). His ECR of QB10 seems a more reasonable value for Dak, who is likely to be more solid than spectacular again in 2022.

Running Backs

Isaiah Spiller (RB – LAC): RB38

Isaiah Spiller could have a great future, but his path to playing time this season is murky at best. As long as Austin Ekeler is healthy, it feels like Spiller is the new Justin Jackson. If so, he’s not startable unless Ekeler is out of the lineup. Taking him as high as RB38 seems like a stretch, especially if someone like Melvin Gordon III is still available. Spiller’s ECR of RB47 values him as a handcuff, which is what it appears he’ll be.

Cordarrelle Patterson (RB -ATL): RB27

Patterson was remarkable in 2021, finishing the year as RB9. He certainly could put together another strong campaign, but his range of outcomes for 2022 is wide. The Falcons’ offense will look very different with Marcus Mariota (QB – ATL) under center and new receivers Drake London (WR – ATL) and Bryan Edwards (WR – ATL) in tow. Patterson is no spring chicken either, he’s 31 now, and he appeared to wear down late last season. Given these variables, his ECR of RB34 seems less risky.

Wide Receivers

Hunter Renfrow (WR – LV): WR27

Renfrow was a pleasant surprise in 2021, finishing the year as WR11 in half-point PPR leagues. A lot has changed with the Raiders this offseason, however. For one, they have a new coach in Josh McDaniels, and you never know how a new scheme will affect a player like Renfrow. Second, and more importantly, they have a new ball-dominating WR in Davante Adams (WR – LV). Adams does a lot of the same things Renfrow does, only better. Renfrow will still be solid in PPR formats, but the addition of Adams and a healthy Darren Waller could drop his TD total significantly from the nine he nabbed last year. A safer play for Renfrow would be closer to his ECR of WR36.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET): WR20

St. Brown finished the 2021 season with a flurry. From Week 13 through Week 18, he was the second-best WR in fantasy averaging 20.9 points per game. However, the Lions were without many of their top receiving options during this period, such as T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift. In addition, Detroit signed DJ Chark and drafted Jameson Williams — who may be the most talented wideout in this year’s draft. As such, St. Brown will face a lot more competition for targets than he did at the end of last season. Therefore, it may be wiser to treat him as a flex-play, ala his ECR of WR31, than a No. 2 WR come your fantasy draft.

Tight End

Cameron Brate (TE -TB): TE22, Kyle Rudolph (TE- TB): TE25, and Cade Otton (TE – TB): TE33

The Bucs have a void at Tight End with the retirement of Rob Gronkowski (TE – FA) and the free agent departure of O.J. Howard (TE – BUF). How it gets filled is anyone’s guess right now. Of the three candidates, Brate is probably the safest, but rookie Otton has the most upside. The likelihood, though, is that all three will be involved to a certain extent, which makes for a fantasy nightmare. Not to mention, will anyone be shocked if Gronk comes out of retirement for a playoff run? Our ECR has all three Tight Ends ranked at least ten spots lower. In other words, avoid all three on draft day. The one exception is Otton, who may be of interest in dynasty leagues.

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