Let’s take a look at running backs our expert consensus likes less than ADP.
And also check out players our experts like more than ADP:
- 4 Quarterbacks Experts Like Less Than ADP
- 5 Running Backs Experts Like More Than ADP
- 5 Wide Receivers Experts Like More Than ADP
- 5 Quarterbacks Experts Like More Than ADP
- 5 Tight Ends Experts Like More Than ADP
Rankings noted using FantasyPros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and Consensus ADP.
5 Running Backs Experts Like Less Than ADP
Derrick Henry (TEN)
ECR RB4 | ADP RB3
Those that faded Derrick Henry as a first-round pick in 2021 received suboptimal results. The Tennessee Titans running back led the position in fantasy PPR points per game (23.4) through eight weeks and bested his 2020 2,000-yard campaign by more than 2.5 PPR points per game.
The unicorn running back averaged 29.6 touches per game – seven more than the next closest running back before his injury. And although he didn’t play again until the postseason, Henry still finished 15th in the NFL in total touches and as the RB20 overall in just eight games played.
Coming off an injury-plagued season does raise some concerns about whether Henry’s body is going to break down because of his insane workload. And the lack of pass-game usage is a detriment to his value in PPR formats. But it’s impossible to ignore his workload opportunity in 2022 within a Titans anemic passing offense. They don’t have any reason to not feature him and there are no indications that they are going to stop with him due $15M this season.
Javonte Williams (DEN)
ECR RB13 | ADP RB9
Running back Melvin Gordon signed a one-year deal with the Denver Broncos, ultimately halting the Javonte Williams 2022 breakout season. The idea of Williams playing a three-down role was salivating, but Gordon’s return should not be overlooked after a seriously underrated 2021 campaign.
MG3’s return definitely hurts Williams’ top-tier fantasy ceiling. He’s going to split work with another capable back in Gordon which is exactly what new head coach Nathaniel Hackett desires and spoke on at the NFL owners meeting in March.
However, keep in mind that Williams finished 13th in touches last season (246, 14.6 per game) and would be the favorite to take another step forward in the passing game – Aaron Jones-esque – after finishing as one of two rookie RBs inside the top-15 in route participation in 2021: Najee Harris (first) and Javonte Williams (13th).
Williams falls just out of the fantasy RB1 conversation for me in redraft and best ball, but he’s right on the cusp. I don’t think he can be ranked worse than RB15 considering that’s where he finished as a rookie amid a split workload in a much worse offensive environment.
Antonio Gibson (WAS)
ECR RB19 | ADP RB15
Antonio Gibson has been a solid option over the last two seasons as the RB16 and RB17 in fantasy points per game. He also ranked tenth in yards per route run, fifth in evaded tackles, and 14th in juke rate. He was tied for seventh in carries inside the five-yard line and eighth in weighted opportunities. We already know the pass game usage is capped with J.D. McKissic resigned, but now the goalline could be in jeopardy with Brian Robinson on the depth chart. The team has talked about lightening Gibson’s load, so the threat of Robinson is real, especially if Gibson keeps putting the ball on the turf. Since 2020 he’s tied with Ezekiel Elliott for the most fumbles (six) in the NFL among running backs.
Elijah Mitchell (SF)
ECR RB24 | ADP RB21
Elijah Mitchell ran away with the job last season en route to finishing as the RB14 in fantasy points per game. He was third in opportunity share, but his underlying rushing metrics were a lackluster ball of meh. He was 36th in juke rate, 30th in breakaway run rate, and 34th in yards created per touch. With his 7.0% target share and 25th ranking in route participation, he doesn’t have the pass game usage to save him if the rushing volume and efficiency aren’t there. It’s still possible that the 49ers roll it back in 2022 with him as the primary rusher, though, as long as he doesn’t face plant in camp.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC)
ECR RB28 | ADP RB25
When you have four running backs, you really have none. The problem with the Chiefs is they don’t have a “commitment” to running the football to begin with, and now CEH has Ronald Jones II, Jerick McKinnon, and Derrick Gore to compete with for carries. It’s still possible that CEH is the best of this group and wins out the lion’s share, but is that lion’s share worthy of a top-60 ADP? I don’t think so. The Chiefs ranked 20th in rush attempts last year and 23rd in 2020. Too many options, too many outcomes and not enough upside for the investment cost in my opinion.
FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
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