As with most lists related to fantasy football, this article is filled with speculation. We are all trying to predict an unpredictable game within a game. Sometimes, being risky pays off, and you look like the hero. However, sometimes being risky ends up crashing and burning and losing your league. In my opinion, these players are more likely to crash and burn than help you win your league. They all have low floors due to their positions within their depth charts, which you must be aware of as you enter your drafts. Let’s get started.
Trey Lance (QB – SF)
I will be the first to admit that Lance has one of the higher ceilings of anyone on this list. He’s on a high-powered team that wants to move the ball in multiple ways, and he’s not afraid to run it himself to move the chains. That being said, there’s also a non-zero chance that he is benched for the entire year. Until Jimmy Garoppolo is officially off this team, Lance’s floor is effectively zero, which worries me.
I mean, let’s face it, the Niners would be pretty smart to start Lance early this year and see what they have after giving up so much draft capital to select him third overall last year. But how many times have we seen coaches and teams, in general, make the wrong move? Lance could be a league winner, but he could also cost you the title. If he’s not even locked in as the starter on his NFL team, then you can’t draft him as the starter on your fantasy team. Not yet, at least. Hopefully, there’s clarity by the time you need to make the decision, but keep an eye on this.
Marcus Mariota (QB – ATL)
Unlike Lance, Mariota is approaching the sunset of his career. He’s 28 years old and has played for the Titans and the Raiders in his 7-year NFL career. He hasn’t started a game since 2019, when he was benched for Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN) and later cut by the team and signed by the Raiders that offseason. He’s an aging quarterback on a team that just drafted a rookie QB in Desmond Ridder (QB – ATL), who is already challenging him for the starting job in camp.
Like Lance, Mariota is no stranger to running the ball, and he also spent almost all of 2021 riding the bench as a backup to Derek Carr (QB – LVR). While Mariota is on a new team, he and Lance have massive chips on their shoulders and something to prove. However, if Mariota is given a short leash, his draft stock goes from something to nothing in a heartbeat. Mariota is only worth rostering in SuperFlex leagues as a QB3 or QB4, but with how uncertain his starting position is, even that feels a little too risky for me right now.
David Montgomery (RB – CHI)
Listen, if you had told me a year ago that Montgomery would be on my list of starters with shaky job security, I would have told you you were nuts. But here we are. Montgomery wasn’t terrible last year, finishing as RB21 overall in PPR scoring and RB15 in points per game. But the fact that he missed time opened the door for his backup, Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI), to step up and shine in his absence. This adds some question marks to Montgomery’s status as a bell cow running back heading into 2022.
For the season, Herbert averaged 4.2 yards per carry on his 103 carries, while Montgomery averaged 3.8 yards on his 225 carries. With Montgomery out, Herbert averaged 19.5 carries per game, while Montgomery averaged 15.3 per game without Herbert. Herbert also scored a full point per game more in PPR when he was given the lead-back role. It’s entirely possible that the Bears liked what they saw, too, thus limiting Montgomery’s upside and lowering his potential floor. Montgomery is currently being drafted as RB17 in the 3rd round, and that could tank your title dreams if he ends up splitting carries with Herbert this year.
Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS)
Gibson is another polarizing player in fantasy this year. He finished as RB10 overall and RB19 in ppg in PPR scoring last year, but there is a large chunk of the community that is fading him hard this year. The Commanders resigned Jd Mckissic (RB – WAS) after he agreed to terms with the Bills, which makes it very clear that they want him on their roster to complement Gibson’s abilities. While this is great for McKissic, it’s scary for Gibson managers in fantasy.
Gibson may finish in the top ten again this year, but it’s hard to see exactly how that happens on a team going through so much transition. He received 258 carries in 2021, 4th most in the NFL, but can he get that kind of volume again? It’s honestly hard to say. Personally, I don’t think so, making his current ADP of RB16 feel more like his ceiling than his floor. If McKissic takes a larger share of the touches, which I think he will, Gibson managers could be in for a rough season.
Cordarelle Patterson (RB – ATL)
The final running back on my list is the fantasy darling of last season. Everyone lucky enough to draft Patterson, or grab him on waivers early in the year, reaped the rewards all season long. Sure, it was a bumpy ride some weeks where he scored fewer than 5 PPR points, but there were seven straight weeks early in the season where he scored over 14 PPR points a week. That kind of variation can be frustrating, but given his cost last year, most fantasy managers were fine with it.
Given his fluctuation and unknown workload this year, he’s going as RB35 in ADP. This isn’t exactly starter material in fantasy, but it’s definitely higher than he was going last year. The Falcons drafted Tyler Allgeier (RB – ATL) and signed Damien Williams (RB – ATL), so the team is telling us something. It’s entirely possible that Patterson isn’t even fantasy relevant by week 2. He’s not someone I’m targeting at all this year, although it would be a great story if he stands out again.
DeVante Parker (WR – NE) and Hunter Henry (TE – NE)
Pass catchers are really tough to put on a list like this. This is largely because there are so many of them, and almost all of them have the potential to be fantasy relevant at some point. That being said, Parker is one of the few WRs that worries me this year. There was a lot of hype around him when the Patriots signed him and even more hype once they traded Harry to the Bears. But there are two things I’m never certain of: is there life on other planets, and what’s the pecking order in New England?
The Patriots depth chart lists Parker at the top, but both Kendrick Bourne (WR – NE) and Jakobi Meyers (WR – NE) played well last year with rookie QB Mac Jones (QB – NE). The team also drafted Tyquan Thornton (WR – NE) in the second round, so I would expect him to be used quite a bit as well. It’s not that I think Parker is bad or anything. I hate predicting what Bill Belichick will do on any given Sunday. He could be a starter, or he could be a veteran who rides the bench. We just don’t know yet, so I’m passing on him in most drafts.
Along with Parker, another depth chart battle at tight end for the Patriots involves Henry and Jonnu Smith (TE – NE). Henry finished as TE10 overall last year, with Smith finishing back at TE35. Heading into the season, we weren’t sure who would step up and be the true TE1 in New England, and it was clearly Henry. But can we trust that to happen again? As I mentioned a minute ago, Belichick is notorious for doing things his way. Henry may end up behind Smith this year. I’m not saying it’s likely, but the fact that it’s possible makes me hesitant to draft Henry in almost every draft I’m in. His ceiling isn’t that high, and his floor is very low. Much like Parker, draft with caution.
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