6 ADP Values, Busts & Sleepers: AFC East (2022 Fantasy Football)
The 2022 fantasy football season is just around the corner. The FantasyPros mock draft simulator is the best preparation for your fantasy drafts. Each year you want to construct your team with a proper mix of good value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
In the first part of an eight-part series, I will identify two ADP values, two likely bust candidates, and two potential sleepers in the AFC East.
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Gabriel Davis (WR – BUF): ADP 78.8 | WR32
Gabriel Davis was a popular breakout candidate last year. However, he was the WR58 and averaged only 7.9 fantasy points per game. While his 2021 season was disappointing, you should feel confident Davis will breakout this year. First and foremost, Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders are no longer with the team, opening 184 targets from last year’s roster. Their replacements are the veteran Jamison Crowder and fifth-round rookie Khalil Shakir.
More importantly, Davis was very productive despite limited work last season. Despite playing only 49.3% of the snaps and a 46.8% route participation rate, Davis had a 10.9% target share and averaged two fantasy points per target. Furthermore, he had the third most red zone targets on the Bills with 17. Davis also had a 17.1% touchdown rate and accounted for 10.7% of the team’s total touchdowns. While he hasn’t been a consistent fantasy player in the past, Davis is a prime post-hype sleeper candidate.
Elijah Moore (WR – NYJ): ADP 84.7 | WR35
While injuries ended his rookie season, Elijah Moore showed plenty of promise in his final few games. Over the last five games of the year, Moore averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game. He scored at least 13 fantasy points in all but one of those contests. Furthermore, he scored 20.5 or more three times.
More importantly, Moore was very productive with his touches, averaging 3.32 fantasy points per touch in those five games. He was producing for fantasy teams even before his strong finish to end the year. Moore had an 18.6% target share and a 20% target share in the red zone. Furthermore, he had three top-12 weekly finishes. Moore will easily outperform his current ADP after having his first complete offseason to prepare for the year.
Dawson Knox (BUF – TE): ADP 96.2 | TE10
After scoring 146.5 fantasy points over the first two years of his career, Dawson Knox scored 164.1 fantasy points last season. He scored nine touchdowns in 15 games, tying him for the most receiving touchdowns by a tight end. By comparison, Knox scored only five touchdowns in his first 27 career games. More importantly, he was the TE11 last season because of his 18.4% touchdown rate, while 32.9% of his fantasy points came from touchdowns. Though touchdowns are the name of the game for tight ends, Knox’s fantasy production took a massive hit when he failed to find the end zone.
In the seven games he found the end zone, Knox averaged 16 fantasy points per game and 3.21 fantasy points per target. However, he averaged only 6.5 fantasy points per game and 1.44 fantasy points per target in the eight games he failed to score a touchdown. Furthermore, Knox averaged 19.5 fantasy points per game and 3.54 fantasy points per target in the two games where he scored multiple touchdowns last season. His fantasy points per game drop by nearly 60% when he fails to score a touchdown. With Davis taking on a larger role and the additions of James Cook and O.J. Howard, Knox shouldn’t get drafted as a top-10 tight end.
Mike Gesicki (MIA – TE): ADP 113.8 | TE12
Despite a lack of weapons in Miami, Mike Gesicki was the TE8, averaging 9.7 fantasy points per game last season. He had only two receiving touchdowns, ranking 34th among tight ends. Furthermore, Gesicki’s two receiving touchdowns were the fourth most on the Dolphins and accounted for only 6.1% of their offensive scores. If he struggled to find the end zone last year, how many touchdowns will Gesicki score with the addition of Tyreek Hill?
Miami also signed Cedrick Wilson in the offseason, adding more competition for Gesicki. Furthermore, he had 412 slot snaps last year, according to PlayerProfiler, the most among tight ends. With the additions of Wilson and Hill, Gesicki won’t play as much in the slot this year. More importantly, Gesicki had a route participation rate of 78.9%. However, that number could regress as Gesicki reportedly will be asked to block more this season. Gesicki has never averaged more than 10.6 fantasy points per game any year of his career. There is no reason why he should get drafted ahead of Cole Kmet or David Njoku.
Sleepers to Target
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE – RB): ADP 113.8 | RB39
The Patriots backfield is a two-headed monster of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. Harris was the RB14 last season, while Stevenson was the RB47. However, Stevenson was equally as good when given the touches. Both running backs averaged 4.6 yards per rushing attempt last season and had between 120 and 135 receiving yards. Neither had a receiving touchdown, and both had under 20 receptions. The big difference between their fantasy production was touchdowns, where Harris had 15 compared to five for Stevenson.
However, Stevenson averaged five yards per touch compared to 4.8 for Harris. He also had the same amount of weekly top-12 finishes as Harris (two) despite seeing only 38.9% of the backfield workload. More importantly, Stevenson has impressed so far in training camp and has taken on more of a pass-catching role as James White recovers from a hip injury. Last year, Harris averaged 14 fantasy points per game. Meanwhile, Stevenson averaged 16.2 fantasy points per game in the two games without Harris. If he can take over as the third-down back and steal some touchdowns from Harris, Stevenson could be a league-winner this year.
Sony Michel (RB – MIA): ADP 191.6 | RB60
When the Dolphins hired former 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, he brought the Kyle Shanahan/San Francisco running game mindset to Miami. The Dolphins completely redid their backfield in free agency, signing Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert before adding Sony Michel in May. Many are excited to draft Edmonds at his 93.2 ADP. While there is potential value with Edmonds at that ADP, Michel is a better value nearly 100 picks later.
While he has excellent advanced metrics that make him an appealing breakout candidate, Edmonds has never had over 120 rushing attempts in any year of his career. Despite a limited workload, Edmonds has a career average of 4.6 yards per rushing attempt. Meanwhile, Michel rebounded last year with the Rams. He averaged 14.8 fantasy points per game over the final six games of the year. Michel is a player you want to target in the final few rounds of your draft, especially if you use a Zero-RB strategy.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Trade Analyzer – which allows you to instantly find out if a trade offer benefits you or your opponent – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.