Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews. If you’re looking for the complete primer, here’s a link to it:
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Arizona Cardinals
- KC -4, O/U 53.5
- Chiefs at Cardinals Betting Matchup via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- The play volume in this game should be solid, but I doubt it’s outstanding. Arizona was tenth in neutral pace last year, but Kansas City was only 18th.
- While the overall number of plays might be average, there should be passing galore here. Last season Kansas City was third in neutral passing rate while the Cardinals were ranked 14th. In the eight games, Arizona played last year with an over/under set at 49 points or higher, the Cardinals’ neutral passing rate climbed by nearly 3% (56.9 vs. 59.8).
Injuries
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes: No Tyreek Hill. No problem. Week 1 will be bombs away for Patrick Mahomes against the Cardinals secondary. Mahomes was fourth in deep attempts last year. Arizona couldn’t stop anyone when they decided to go downfield last year, and their secondary wasn’t massively improved in the offseason. Arizona allowed the highest deep completion rate and deep passer rating last year while also ranking second in deep passing touchdowns. Don’t rule out Mahomes and Andy Reid making this a statement game in Week 1.
Kyler Murray: This game could be a heavyweight slugfest for the ages.
“Mahomes vs. Murray. Go deep or go home.”
Kyler Murray was eighth in deep attempts last year while stating his case as the most accurate downfield passer in the NFL. He finished the season first and third in deep completion rate and deep accuracy rating. Why does this matter? Kansas City was fourth in deep passing yards and seventh in deep passing touchdowns allowed last season. When Murray isn’t heaving the rock to the heavens, he should find success running all over the place. The Chiefs were also sixth in rushing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks while surrendering the most rushing scores. Two quarterbacks enter. Only one departs as the QB1 overall for the week.
Running Backs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: If Mahomes doesn’t go nuclear this week, it’s because Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran wild. Yes, you read that right. Edwards-Helaire’s sophomore season was wrecked by off-season gall bladder surgery which caused him to lose a ton of weight. Now back to full health, he should more closely resemble the back we saw in his rookie season. That first year he was 17th in evaded tackles, 12th in breakaway runs, and 29th in yards created per touch. The Cardinals were a disaster last season attempting to stop running backs. They were 31st and 27th in second-level and open field yards. Arizona ranked seventh and third in yards per carry and yards after contact per attempt. Losing Jordan Phillips and Jordan Hicks in the offseason can’t help these numbers, either.
Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco: Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco were factoring in on passing downs in the preseason. McKinnon likely takes over the role in the regular season. Without knowing how much he’ll factor and with such an outstanding rushing matchup on deck, it’s impossible to play McKinnon with any confidence. Arizona was 11th in receptions and 10th in receiving yards allowed to running backs last year, but they only gave up one receiving touchdown.
James Conner: James Conner was shelved all preseason. That should allay fears of him splitting work, especially in the early going. That’s undisputed starter treatment from the Cardinals. In Weeks 9-14, he never played less than 77% of the snaps averaging 21.8 touches and 114.4 total yards per game. He was the RB2 in fantasy behind only Jonathan Taylor in that five-game span. This is a similar story as with Edwards-Helaire. If Murray disappoints, it’s because Conner went nuts. Kansas City was 27th and 29th in adjusted line yards and second-level yards last year. They also allowed the second-highest yards per attempt while sitting at 26th in DVOA against receiving backs. Last season Arizona was eighth in red zone rushing rate. Kansas City was 25th in red zone rushing defense. Conner could be headed for a multiple-touchdown game.
Eno Benjamin and Darrel Williams: With multiple camp reports regarding Kliff Kingsbury’s love for Eno Benjamin and beat writer suggesting Darrel Williams could be the RB2, it’s impossible to know at this point without any regular season usage to go off. Benjamin was utilized more in the preseason, which should lead us to believe it’s Williams, but neither player can grace your lineup in Week 1 without clarity.
Wide Receivers
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Mecole Hardman: JuJu Smith-Schuster is a perfect example where the fantasy industry’s love for a player and their performance doesn’t correlate. Smith-Schuster has seen his yards per route run and YAC per reception number decline in each of the past four seasons. Despite volume propping up his 2020 fantasy season, deeper efficiency metrics show that he has not been a good NFL player. Since 2019 Smith-Schuster has ranked 60th, 85th, and 126th in yards per route run among wideouts with at least 20 targets. He faces a Cardinals’ secondary that, while bad last year overall, they were excellent against slot receivers. That’s because of Byron Murphy. Arizona held slot wideouts to the seventh-lowest receiving yards per game. Excluding the weeks where Murphy had to attempt to cover Cooper Kupp last year, he allowed a 68.2% catch rate and 87.6 passer rating.
Update: Trayvon Mullen has been ruled out for Arizona.
The long-standing rule with Marquez Valdes-Scantling is “if the team is bad against deep passing…play MVS”. The Cardinals stink against the deep ball. Fire up Valdes-Scantling as an upside flex if you need a sky-high ceiling this week. Last year he was 39th out of 70 wide receivers in deep receiving grades per PFF (minimum ten deep targets), with 44.9% of his targets coming downfield (the highest mark for any wide receiver in this sample). In 2020 he was sixth in deep receiving yards and third in deep receiving touchdowns in the NFL. Valdes-Scantling will match up with Marco Wilson and either rookie Christian Matthew or Javelin Guidry this week. Wilson was beyond terrible last season with a 73.2% catch rate, 134.1 passer rating, and a whopping eight receiving touchdowns surrendered. Guidry wasn’t any better giving up a 71,8% catch rate and 114.0 passer rating last season.
Mecole Hardman or Skyy Moore could be the WR3 on the field with Mahomes this week, or they could rotate. Until we get more information, both players should be parked on your bench.
Marquise Brown: Marquise Brown should be Kyler Murray‘s number one option until DeAndre Hopkins returns. Brown saw the 12th-highest target share last year and 11th-most air yards last season among wide receivers. Brown ranked eighth in route win rate and ninth in win rate against man coverage finishing as the WR21 in fantasy points per game. After sitting at eighth in deep targets in the NFL last season, he should be Murray’s go-to for deep balls. Brown will line up opposite Rashad Fenton and rookie Trent McDuffie this week. Fenton gave up a 69.2% catch rate and 91.2 passer rating in 2021. Expect Brown to challenge the rookie immediately to see if he’s up to the task of hanging with him all game.
Rondale Moore: Rondale Moore could also play large in this game. Moore disappointed if you were expecting him to live up to the hype as the WR63 in fantasy points per game last year. All hope isn’t lost, though. Moore was 28th in route win rate last year. With his 1.3 aDOT, he ranked seventh in YAC per reception and 13th in missed tackles forced (minimum 20 targets). This could be a matchup for Murray to exploit with his speedy slot receiver. Kansas City allowed the most YAC in the league last season. They also finished 14th in slot yards per game and 13th in slot fantasy points per game allowed. Moore will see L’Jarius Sneed in slot coverage. Sneed gave up a 75% catch rate and 93.6 passer rating last season.
Update: With Rondale Moore out and Zach Ertz banged up, expect James Conner and Marquise Brown’s median and ceiling target share expectations to rise.
Greg Dortch and A.J. Green: Greg Dortch will likely start from the slot for Arizona in Week 1. Dortch played quite well in the preseason this year. He was targeted on 26.6% of his routes while playing from the slot on 92.8% of his snaps. Among 70 wide receivers with ten or more targets this preseason he was 30th in yards per route run (1.82) and ranked 13th in YAC per reception. Dortch will see L’Jarius Sneed in slot coverage. Sneed gave up a 75% catch rate and 93.6 passer rating last season. A.J. Green made a surprising return to Arizona, but that doesn’t mean he should return to your fantasy lineup anytime soon. Green looked like a receiver on his last legs limping to a WR42 finish. He was 48th in yards per route run and outside the top 80 receivers in route win rate and win rate against man coverage.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce: Let’s keep this simple. If you drafted Travis Kelce, you are starting him. It’s as easy as that. I will say, though, that with the Cardinals having multiple issues on the defensive front, this isn’t a game where Kelce has to post a monster game for the Chiefs to win. Kelce was the TE2 in fantasy points per game last year, ranking sixth in yards per route run and first in YAC. The Cardinals were tough on tight ends last year, ranking second in DVOA with the fourth-lowest receiving yards and fewest receiving touchdowns.
Zach Ertz and Trey McBride: Zach Ertz could easily miss this game as he’s dealing with a calf injury. Last season without Hopkins in the lineup (Weeks 9-11, 15-18), Ertz saw a 23.7% target share and finished as a top ten tight end in 71.4% of his games. After being left for dead during last year’s draft season, Ertz showed plenty left in the tank, ranking ninth in yards per route run and fantasy points per route run.
If Ertz is out, Trey McBride becomes a viable every-down streaming option in a high total game. Kansas City was a middle-of-the-road defense against the position last season, ranking 17th in DVOA, 16th in receptions, and 15th in receiving yards allowed. If McBride doesn’t tickle your fancy for tight-end streaming, check out our Week 1 waiver wire article for another plug-and-play target.
Update: Zach Ertz has been listed as questionable. I think he’s closer to a game-time decision, so have a streaming option waiting in the wings for Week 1.
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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
