Andrew Erickson’s Top Middle-Round Draft Picks (2022 Fantasy Football)

The 2022 NFL season is approaching, which means it’s time to prepare for your fantasy football draft. Of course, there’s no better way to do that than to practice drafting with our free mock draft simulator! Beyond our tools, we will have you covered throughout the draft prep season with our content.

The goal of every fantasy football manager is to complete the perfect draft. Impossible, you say? Let’s call it a stretch goal and strive for fantasy football glory. Here’s Andrew Erickson’s perfect 2022 fantasy football draft.

And for those looking for even more in-depth analysis, check out Erickson’s full round-by-round draft strategy along with his preferred draft slot breakdown.

• Erickson’s Early-Round Draft Strategy

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Andrew Erickson’s Top Middle-Round Draft Picks

Round 6 Targets

• Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI): Hurts has been a top-12 fantasy quarterback at an 85% hit rate in the 20 games he’s played in all four quarters.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET): St. Brown finished the 2021 season on absolute fire as the WR3 in PPR from Weeks 13-18. But the blazing conclusion was fueled by injuries to both D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson. Because before their injuries, ASB was an essential non-factor outside a stretch from Weeks 4-6, where he commanded a 22% target share despite playing fewer snaps than Kalif Raymond. Meanwhile, Hockenson was the target leader for the offense until his injury. There’s definitely some hesitance on fully buying St. Brown’s rookie breakout, but the fact that it happened at all can’t be totally ignored. Luckily the concern is baked-in to his WR ADP, which is outside the top 24. And even if ASB doesn’t replicate his earth-shattering fantasy numbers from a season ago, he likely offers a pretty solid WR3 floor with the proven upside for more. In 47% of his games, he finished as a fantasy WR3 in 2021. And it’s all gravy after that should he roll over even 80% of his second-half production, or should injuries hit the Lions’ receiving corps. Keep in mind that from Week 4 onward, St. Brown was PFF’s 6th-highest graded receiver (84.7) and fourth-highest graded among WRs with at least 100 targets. He’s a good/efficient player, and that should translate to fantasy success in Year 2.
• Gabriel Davis (WR- BUF): Buy the Gabriel Davis breakout. Even after running 200 fewer routes than Sanders and Beasley, Davis had the second-highest WR3 finish rate on the Bills. Beasley and Sanders also combined for more top-12 finishes than Stefon Diggs last season, which just showcases the weekly fantasy ceiling within reach for Davis. Don’t forget that the Bills wideout averaged 19.8 fantasy PPR points per game in his last six games as a full-time player. And while playing on a limited snap share, Davis ranks top five in the NFL in total end-zone targets. From Week 10 onward, Davis ranked 4th in PFF receiving grade, 11th in yards per route run, and WR25 in total fantasy points/per-game basis. A starting role should increase his floor, while his fantasy ceiling remains sky-high in a high-powered offense.
• Marquise Brown (WR – ARI): Marquise Brown seems slated for a massive target share in the Arizona Cardinals’ pass-heavy offense, especially with DeAndre Hopkins sidelined early on. Brown has already shown the ability to command targets at a high rate after posting a top-12, 23% target share last year with Baltimore. The speedy wideout also commanded a whopping 27% target share back in 2018 at Oklahoma — the last time he played with quarterback Kyler Murray.
• Dalton Schultz (TE – DAL): Only Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews have scored more fantasy points at the tight end position since the start of 2020. Schultz’s ADP has him linked closer to the second tier of tight ends rather than the aforementioned elite group. With Dak Prescott’s trust firmly in hand, Amari Cooper out the door and major question marks at No. 2 wide receiver, it’s likely that Schultz builds off his ninth-ranked 16% target share entering Year 5.

Round 7 Targets

• Elijah Moore (WR – NYJ): Elijah Moore remains one of my favorite WRs to target outside the top 30 because the talent is so intoxicating. The Jets’ slot receiver was the WR2 overall during his last stretch of six games played, despite catching passes from a hodgepodge quarterback carousel of Mike White, Zach Wilson and Josh Johnson. His 16.1 fantasy points per game would have ranked fifth had he continued the production for the remainder of the season.
• Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU): The 4th-round rookie RB from Florida was PFF highest-graded in the FBS last season. Has a clear path  to early-down duties in the Texans’ backfield after the team released Marlon Mack. Pierce sat out the team’s second preseason game and started in Week 3, because the coaches feel like he’s proven he is the team’s RB1 and best option at the position.
• Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL): The Baltimore Ravens traded Marquise Brown to the Arizona Cardinals this offseason, opening the WR1 role on offense. Bateman has the opportunity to step in and be the true No. 1 wide receiver for Lamar Jackson in 2022. With Brown’s 23% target share departure, Bateman can seize a massive role for fantasy as a high-end WR2.
• Kareem Hunt (RB – CLE): Last year Hunt was limited to just eight games due to a calf injury — but he maintained his effectiveness when healthy through the first six weeks of the season. He was a top-10 running back in PPR, averaging 17 fantasy points per game and just south of 15 touches per game. His sixth-ranked yards after contact per attempt (3.54), sixth-ranked yards per route run (1.81), and 26% target rate suggest he’s not slowing down entering the age 27 season.
• Devin Singletary (RB – BUF): Singletary was unleashed down the stretch for the Bills, finishing as the top-5 fantasy RB over the final six weeks of the season on 17-plus touches per game. The underrated rusher ranked first in the NFL in routes run and third in the NFL in red-zone touches (29), more than double that of quarterback Josh Allen. With a proven track record and two years of bellcow back usage in spurts, don’t be surprised when PFF’s fourth-ranked running back in rushes of 15-plus yards emerges from a high-octane ambiguous backfield. And everything the Bills have shown us during the preseason suggests Singletary is still locked-and-loaded into the RB1 spot.

Round 8 Targets

• Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF): During Weeks 1-7, Brandon Aiyuk was a dud in fantasy football. He ranked 98th in yards per route run. But he turned things around in the second half of the season, finishing the year 13th in yards per route run with the same target rate per route run as Deebo Samuel. The former first-round pick also ranked sixth in yards after the catch per reception (6.9). If Aiyuk can roll over his second-half production into 2022, he could be a smashing fantasy value in a similar way that his teammate Samuel was viewed in 2021. His overall disappointing sophomore campaign should not overshadow his electric rookie season. But be warned that a run-heavy offensive philosophy led by mobile QB figures to suppress pass attempts in the 49ers offense cast uncertainty about what Aiyuk’s consistency will look like, especially if Samuel and George Kittle remain healthy.
• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE):Stevenson experienced a very successful rookie season that should not be overlooked. After fully escaping the Bill Belichick doghouse in Week 9, Stevenson earned top grades across the board. He was PFF’s third-highest graded running back (84.2). Stevenson also ranked 13th in rushing yards and yards per route run (1.41). For fantasy, the rookie running back was the RB25 in total points scored, eight spots behind his backfield teammate Damien Harris. Stevenson (93) and Harris (86) split touches nearly 50/50 in the team’s remaining seven games. In the six games together, Stevenson slightly edged out Harris in expected fantasy points per game (9.3 vs. 8.9) with more favorable usage. With impressive reports coming out of Foxborough as a receiver and praise from Bill Belichick to see work on all 3 downs, Stevenson is a dark horse to see an expanded role; making the second-year back  a priority target as the draft slips into the later rounds. He was PFF’s highest-graded rookie RB last year…putting him into a tier with the likes of Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb and Alvin Kamara — all who were top-8 fantasy RBs in their second seasons.

Round 9 Targets

• Trey Lance (QB – SF): Lance only started two games but showed off the rushing that excited fantasy managers during draft season. The 49ers’ first-year signal-caller averaged 22.4 expected fantasy points and 60 rushing yards per game.
• Zach Ertz (TE – ARI): Ertz didn’t end up getting traded until Week 7 to the Arizona Cardinals, but his production took off after the trade. The former Eagle averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game (eighth) and finished second in the NFL in total targets (7.1/game) among tight ends. He also averaged just under five receptions per game and a team-high 20% target share while running a route on 84% of dropbacks. Ertz undoubtedly got a major receiving boost without DeAndre Hopkins in the lineup, but that will be the case during the first six games with the Cardinals’ No. 1 wide receiver serving a suspension. Ertz was TE4 over that stretch with Hopkins sidelined, averaging seven receptions per game (24% target share).
• Christian Kirk (WR – JAX): Christian Kirk got PAID this offseason, but is getting no love in fantasy. Even though he proved he was up for the challenge a season ago. He commanded a 21% target share without DeAndre Hopkins in the lineup. Averaged 13.8 fantasy PPR points per game — a top-10 per-game average. And finished with the second-most receiving yards from the slot. This dude is going to see a boatload of volume in a pass-happy Jaguars offense and is still being selected outside the top-40 WRs.

Round 10 Targets

• Kadarius Toney (WR – NYG): Toney flashed future target-magnet potential after posting 2.14 yards per route run (11th) and commanding a 25% target rate per route run in 2021 — tied for 7th best in the NFL in 2021. His 92nd percentile PFF receiving grade versus single coverage suggests that Toney can win wherever he lines up. There’s no denying that Toney’s flashes of brilliant play came in short supply last season. The Giants’ offense might still be below average even with upgrades across the OL and coaching personnel with Daniel Jones under center. Even so, that’s factored into Toney’s WR40 ADP. Buy the dip.
• James Cook (RB – BUF): Rookie running back James Cook has immediate sleeper fantasy appeal across all PPR formats based on his second-round draft capital, pass-catching prowess, explosiveness and offensive situation. The 5-foot-11, 199-pound running back has more than enough heft to manage a decent workload, especially as a receiver out of the backfield. The 5-foot-7, 203-pound Devin Singletary was the RB3 over the last six weeks of the regular season when the Bills entrenched him as the featured guy. Round 2 running backs have finished as top-36 running backs more than half the time (55%) since 2013.
• Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS): According to Commanders head coach Ron Rivera, we could see third-rounder Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson work together in a similar fashion to how Jonathan Stewart and De’Angelo Williams operated during Rivera’s tenure in Carolina. Coaches lie all the time so I wouldn’t overreact, but Robinson owning a legitimate 1B role on offense isn’t shocking based on Gibson’s injuries/fumbles and their investment in the Alabama running back in this year’s draft. Not to mention, Robinson has been the more impressive of the two backs this summer, earning starter reps in the team’s first two preseason games. Robinson finished third in missed tackles and seventh in PFF rushing grade (90.4) while also flashing his chops in the passing game last season. He caught 35 of 38 targets for 296 receiving yards. B-Rob is far from a can’t-miss prospect but offers the physicality and size to be a thumper for the Commanders. Just note that he might miss some time to start the season after suffering non life-threatening injuries in a robbery attempt. Still worth stashing until a timetable for his return is released. You can probably wait longer have Round 10 to potentially grab Washington’s future RB1 as his ADP craters from his NFI status, knocking him out at least four weeks.

Andrew Erickson’s 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings